Paris Link, France
Oct 6 2006

Chirac the Kingmaker
Fri, 06 Oct 2006 19:15:00
Gareth Cartman

Chirac loyalists are making noises – they do not seem to want Nicolas
Sarkozy in the Elysee. Should Jacques Chirac decide not to stand next
year for a third term, he finds himself in the position of Kingmaker.
Just like the socialists, his leitmotif is "Anyone But Sarkozy".

There is no Chirac building yet in Paris. There is no Bibliothèque
Chirac, no Centre Chirac, not even a Roissy-Jacques-Chirac. Two terms
in office, and apart from the quai Branly museum, there is little to
remember Jacques Chirac by. However, he is refusing to go quietly –
if he does go at all – and his desire to stop Nicolas Sarkozy getting
into the Elysee could see one last swipe from this political monster.

Sarkozy used to be a Chirac protege. The young Sarkozy was often seen
at the side of Chirac, but that all stopped with the ‘betrayal’ of
Edouard Balladur in 1995 and Sarkozy’s defection to Balladur’s camp.
The ambitious Interior Minister’s plans for ‘la rupture’ have been
met with distaste by Chirac and the chiraquiens, who are planning
ahead to stop Sarkozy.

First of all, Chirac’s rehabilitation has been swift. A visit
this week to an Agriculture salon pitched Chirac right back in his
element. Chirac never hides the fact that his favourite period during
his political lifetime was at the Agriculture Ministry. He has racked
up airmiles like never before, travelling the world to make speeches –
controversial or otherwise. He pushed Turkey to recognise the genocide
of the Armenians recently, and back home reformed the pensions scheme
for war veterans of immigrant origin.

Many suspect that this is the first part of one of the many Chirac
‘revivals’. Considered politically dead before both Presidential
elections, Chirac kept on coming back to win. If he feels that he
will not be able to complete his comeback this time, expect Chirac
to place an ally on the way to the Elysee.

Current favourite seems to be Michelle Alliot-Marie. The Defense
Minister already has the backing of at least 50 MPs and has set up
her own association, la Chene (the Oak Tree) on the same road as
Chirac’s former RPR party. A chiraquienne at heart, Alliot-Marie has
been manoeuvring for the nomination for several weeks already. She
is likely to run against Sarkozy, and would have the full support of
Chirac should he not run.

A few weeks ago, it appeared that all faith had been lost in Dominique
de Villepin. Still the golden boy of the chiraquiens, de Villepin
has done everything within his capacity to distance himself from
Sarkozy. Where Sarkozy says "fire", de Villepin says "hold your
fire". Notably effective in the resolution of the Cachan crisis,
de Villepin has steadily climbed in popularity and could represent
an option should Alliot-Marie fail.

Should Chirac be re-elected, he will more than likely use his third
term to promote a chiraquien to succeed him, much as he has been trying
to do with Dominique de Villepin. The favourite for this proposal would
be Alain Juppe, who is expected to walk back into his position as Mayor
of Bordeaux. Juppe, who took the rap for corruption charges, went into
exile for two years, and Chirac feels he owes his favourite protege.

Juppe is a born fonctionnaire. A devout believer in the power of
the state, and in the power of those chosen to execute the state’s
decisions, Juppe simply could not believe how he had been treated
when charged with corruption. He remains a wholehearted chiraquien,
with the 2012 Presidential elections his true target.

This trio represent the best chances of Chirac leaving a lasting legacy
at the Elysee. As Sarkozy rejects Gaullism, the chiraquiens preach
it. Whether it is Chirac himself or one of his proteges running against
Nicolas Sarkozy, the big man in the palace will have the ultimate say
in who wins next year’s election. Indeed, he would probably even choose
Segolène Royal over Sarkozy, such is the rift between the two men.

CLE/1233/2006-10-06.html

–Boundary_(ID_1NxHRgRoQ fno2A1xS0V8LQ)–
From: Baghdasarian