PRESS RELEASE
Armenian Center for National and International Studies
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 0033, Armenia
Tel: (+374 – 10) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
Fax: (+374 – 10) 52.48.46
Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
Website:
October 12, 2006
ACNIS Focuses on Regional Developments and Armenian Security
Yerevan–Does the future of the Caucasus augur any changes in terms of
politico-military and geostrategic interests? What is the current balance of
interests held by world powers and the countries in the region, and what are
the prospects of this balance? What can we anticipate from the GUAM
pact–signed among Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova–which is now
becoming more active? What impact will the events unraveling in the northern
Caucasus as well as the strained Russian-Georgian relations have on Armenia
and, more specifically, on the resolution of the Karabagh conflict? In light
of the on-ground victory in Artsakh’s quest for liberty and self-defense,
what are the reasons behind subsequent Armenian setbacks in the political
arena? In order comprehensively to explore and offer an expert outlook on
these and other pertinent contemporary issues, the Armenian Center for
National and International Studies (ACNIS) today convened a foreign policy
roundtable entitled "Political Developments in the Caucasus and Armenia’s
Security."
ACNIS director of research Stiopa Safarian greeted the audience with opening
remarks. Next to welcome the participants and deliver comments was ACNIS
director of administration Karapet Kalenchian. "In this policy seminar, we
will try to delineate the realm of those matters which have a direct
correlation with our security, and to expose the shortcomings of our foreign
and domestic agenda with respect to the defense of national interests," he
said.
In her address, security specialist Naira Hambarian deliberated on the
imperatives of Armenia’s security doctrine. In Hambarian’s assessment,
ethnic conflicts and civil wars are an outcome of the intrastate and
military changes taken place during the post-Cold War era. And these
changes, in their turn, bring about corruption, poverty, environmental
pollution, drug trafficking, terrorism, and other challenges to domestic,
non-military security. According to the analyst, the most perilous of these,
one which breaks the backbone of the country’s potential and destroys the
body politic, is corruption–and especially the crimes committed by the
ruling powers. "The union between criminal forces and the political elite is
beneficial for both. Hence, such criminal partnership provides votes and
financial dividends to the authorities, while the criminal factions not only
receive protection against law enforcement but, enjoying the backing of the
administration, are also free to engage in the shadow economy," Hambarian
noted.
In his turn, Yerevan State University lecturer Aram Harutiunian concentrated
on the policy, pursued by some, of Armenia’s regional isolation and its
probable consequences. He expressed confidence that the currently tense
situation in the Caucasus has brought forth real threats against Armenia’s
security, and these threats, in Harutiunian’s view, could become more
complex. "’Thanks to’ the persistent policy conducted by a couple of
aggressive neighbors, the transnational corporations, and large financial
circles, Armenia–lacking in natural resources and coping with a
cleverly-orchestrated blockade–has become largely isolated. In actual fact,
Armenia has been deprived of the opportunity to play any meaningful role in
the region. That is to say, this situation creates an evident vacuum which,
as is known, could result in unpredictable consequences," he said. The
political scientist concluded by offering his prescriptions for the
challenges ahead. The bypassing of Armenia in regional projects, according
to Harutiunian, is a dangerous process that could disturb the strategic
equilibrium in the region, and this would significantly jeopardize Armenia’s
future security.
The next speaker, political analyst Davit Petrosian, reflected on the
current instability in the northern Caucasus, and presented a breakdown of
the threats which Armenia might confront from that direction. "Should the
Karabagh conflict be settled, one of the points in the relevant agreement
will stipulate the deblockage of every single one of Armenia’s land
communications, including the transportation links that pass through
Azerbaijan and the northern Caucasus," Petrosian asserted. He did not rule
out, however, that in case of instability in the southern portion of the
North Caucasus–in Daghestan, for instance–the aforementioned routes could
be shut down once more, but this time by Russia. The transportation links
across Abhkazia and North Ossetia, on the other hand, will remain closed for
a long time in order to serve as reciprocal levers in the campaign against
neighboring adversaries, he said.
In his talk, Armenia’s former deputy minister of defense Vahan Shirkhanian
examined the military balance in the Caucasus. He demonstrated with facts
and figures that the South Caucasus is the world’s most militarized region.
In line with these statistics, in the last five years alone the military
budgets of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia have increased approximately
five, three, and two times, respectively. And what’s interesting is that
these indicators surpass the economic growth index of these countries by
thirty to forty times. Apart from this, the three Caucasus countries have
found themselves in different geopolitical and politico-military
extremities. Georgia’s bearing is in the direction of NATO, Azerbaijan looks
toward Turkey, while Armenia sets its sights on Russia. "It seems the region
will soon turn into a stage for military actions," Shirkhanian said. He also
maintained against this backdrop that Armenia needs to resign from its
policy of complementarity, which practically has become unjustifiable, and
to choose a precise and coherent system of security. The best course of
action for Armenia, according to the former deputy minister, is to associate
with the Eurasian Economic Commonwealth and with the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization comprising Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Tajikistan.
The participants in the ensuing discussion included director Gagik
Ter-Harutiunian of the "Noravank" Foundation; Gegham Harutiunian from the
Republic Party; analyst Marine Karapetian from the Concord Center for Legal
and Political Studies; Heritage Party board member Gevorg Kalenchian;
chairman Alexander Butayev of "The People are Masters of the Country" civic
union; and several others.
Founded in 1994 by Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K.
Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors, ACNIS serves
as a link between innovative scholarship and the public policy challenges
facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the post-Soviet world. It also
aspires to be a catalyst for creative, strategic thinking and a wider
understanding of the new global environment. In 2006, the Center focuses
primarily on civic education, conflict resolution, and applied research on
critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.
For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax
(37410) 52-48-46; email [email protected] or [email protected]; or visit