Regnum
12:37 12.10.2006
Permanent news address:
Viktor Yakubyan: Tbilisi is preparing double strike against Moscow and
Yerevan
The Russian-Armenian inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation
met in Moscow a few days ago. The same day the press reported the sides to have
agreed on how to alleviate the impact Russia’s economic sanctions against
Georgia is having on Armenia. To remind, the sanctions were imposed after the
arrest and release of Russian officers in Georgia and, particularly, concern
the sphere of transport, particularly, motor and rail transportation. This
measure has put Armenia in as hard a situation as Georgia.
`The transit of cargoes from Armenia via Georgia to Russia and viceversa
will not be stopped,’ the Secretary of the National Security Council of Armenia,
Defense Minister _Serzh Sargsyan_
( ;q=3DSargsyan+&sitesearch=3Dw ww.regnum.ru&client=3Dpub-1466744838047082& ;forid=3D1&ie=3DISO-8859-1&oe=3DISO-8859-1 &cof=3DGALT:#008000;GL:1;DIV:336699;VLC:663399 ;AH:center;BGC:FFFFFF;LBGC:33) said after the Moscow meeting. His colleague,
the Russian co-chair of the commission, Russian Transport Minister _Igor
Levitin_
( ;q=3DIgor+Levitin+&sitesearch =3D;client=3Dpub-1466744838047082 &forid=3D1&ie=3DISO-8859-1&oe=3DISO-88 59-1&cof=3DGALT:#008000;GL:1;DIV:336699;VLC:66 3399;AH:center;BGC:FFFFFF;LBGC)
appeared with quite a sensational statement. He said that `the cargoes from
Russia to Armenia and vice versa will be transported via the port of Samsun
(Turkey), from there to the port of Kavkaz (Russia) and then to Poti (Georgia).’
The ministers assured that two train ferries will be launched between
Kavkaz and Poti by the end of this year. Sargsyan said that, presently, there is
one train ferry between the ports that can carry 20 cars.
All they said implies that the Kavkaz-Poti-Armenia route will not be used
hereinafter. Russia has stopped almost all cargo operations with Georgia and is
now forced to search for quite original ways to communicate with Armenia. It
should be noted that the direct transport communication between Armenia and
Turkey was stopped the moment Armenia proclaimed independence and will hardly
be resumed in the near future.
Thus, Russia is planning to send its cargoes from Kavkaz to Samsun and then
almost back to Batumi or Poti and only then to Armenia. Thus, Turkey is
becoming the second go-between (Georgia remains one in any case) in
Armenian-Russian commodity turnover.
We should take this project with certain skepticism as the point here is not
even in political or technical difficulty but in the lack of any sense and
logic. Such a long way round will be by far more expensive for Russian and
Armenian companies than the long-trodden Poti-Ilichevsk (Ukraine) route andthey
will hardly give the latter up. Even without Samsum, Kavkaz-Poti is no rival
to the Ukrainian route due to its low capacity. Presently, its train ferry
can carry only 18 cars at one go.
However, the point is even not that the Russian and Armenian authorities have
`felt’ some `original’ way out the presentsituation. In fact, by offering
a Turkish transit route to Armenia, the Russian authorities make it clear
that their sanctions against Georgia will last for long. And it seems thatthe
other possible way-out for Armenia – via the Caspian Sea and Iran- is not
being considered.
In Moscow Armenian DM Serzh Sargsyan had a number of meetings, particularly,
with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian sources
report that the sides discussed the aggravation of Georgian-Russian relations and
the ways for Armenia to come out of the present deadlock.
Naturally, under the current economic pressure, the Georgian authorities are
also considering certain scenarios. Some sources say that Georgia is actively
consulting with the US, Azerbaijan and Turkey about its further actions.
First of all, the Georgian leadership is getting ready for a rise in the Russian
gas price. The sources say that starting from Jan 1 2007 the price will be
raised to $250 per 1,000 c m. Georgia will respond in a counter-ultimatum:the
transit tariff of Russian gas to Armenia will be raised from $30 to $75 per
1,000 c m (after the first rise of the gas tariff for Georgia from $55 to
$110, Tbilisi raised the transit tariff for Armenia from $15 to $30). Certainly,
Gazprom will reject Georgia’s proposal, but the Georgian authorities will
not be `surprised’ and will start the practice of illegal`siphoning’ of the
gas meant for Armenia.
Meanwhile, as early as Jan 20 Georgia is planning to get the first gas from
Azerbaijan via Baku-Erzurum pipeline. This will mark the beginning of the
plan, reportedly, approved by Washington: Turkey will give its share of the Azeri
gas to Georgia, and this will allow Tbilisi to say that it no longer needs
the Trans-Caucasian gas pipeline, which supplies gas from Russia to Armenia
via Georgia. This will put an end to _Gazprom_
( ;q=3DGazprom&sitesearch=3Dwww .regnum.ru&client=3Dpub-1466744838047082&f orid=3D1&ie=3DISO-8859-1&oe=3DISO-8859-1&a mp;cof=3DGALT:#008000;GL:1;DIV:336699;VLC:663399;A H:center;BGC:FFFFFF;LBGC:3366) ‘s plans to privatize the pipeline – the plans that the US strongly objects to.
Thus, the winter 2006 will mark the introduction of new game rules in the
South Caucasus. It will be a kind of test not only for Georgia, who has become a
target for Russia’s economic sanctions, but also for Armenia, who has become
an involuntary hostage to the Russian-Georgian contradictions. Yerevan=80=99s
only hope is the Iran-Armenian gas pipeline, to be launched by the end of this
year.
_Viktor Yakubyan_
( ;q=3DViktor+Yakubyan+&sitesea rch=3D;client=3Dpub-1466744838047 082&forid=3D1&ie=3DISO-8859-1&oe=3DISO -8859-1&cof=3DGALT:#008000;GL:1;DIV:336699;VLC :663399;AH:center;BGC:FFFFFF;LB) , expert on South Caucasus
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