Ayna, Baku
12 Oct 06 pp 1, 2

WAR ONLY WAY TO RESOLVE PROTRACTED KARABAKH CONFLICT – AZERI DAILY

An Azerbaijani newspaper has said that the only possible way to
achieve a breakthrough in the peace talks to resolve the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is to start military
operations in Karabakh. "Now it is considered more acceptable for
Azerbaijan to carry out a military operation in Karabakh. It is
possible to achieve progress only in this way," the paper said. The
following is the excerpt from Casur Sumarinli’s report by Azerbaijani
newspaper Ayna on 12 October headlined "An alarm on the front line"
and subheaded "It has been ordered to upgrade the military hardware
in the front line units of the Azerbaijani army". Subheadings are as
published.

A secret alarm was sent to most of the Azerbaijani military units
along the front line yesterday [11 October] and they were put on high
alert. Ayna obtained information saying that the alarm was mainly
intended for military units in Tartar and Agdam districts. It is not
known yet if the alarm was given by the Defence Ministry or the corps
command. We could not confirm the information since it was the end of
the day, but the source of the information insisted that the
country’s leadership had given the instruction to put the troops on
high alert to check the level of their preparedness.

Ayna has learnt that President Ilham Aliyev has given special
instructions to upgrade the weapons and military hardware in the
units on the front line. It is also reported that the process of
replacing military hardware has already started. Some reports say
that it is also on the agenda to increase the number of troops on the
front line.

Will there be war?

Independent experts are saying that the relations between Azerbaijan
and Armenia are tense. It is not ruled out either that these
relations may end up with war at any time. It is true that the peace
talks between the sides resumed at the level of foreign ministers
after several months’ break. But experts believe that these talks are
"contacts for the sake of contacts". The sides are clearly confident
that they will not make any serious progress in the talks. But the
existing situation cannot last long like this. Therefore, it is
necessary to take certain extraordinary steps.

Observations show that an extraordinary incident should necessarily
happen on the front line. Only after this incident the sides can
intensify their efforts and wish to resolve the conflict as soon as
possible.

Political analysts believe that it will be inevitable to write a new
scenario for the next round of talks if Azerbaijan fully proves its
rightness in the Karabakh peace talks, insists on the liberation of
the occupied territories and convinces the international community,
especially the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group of its efforts. The
talk is about "an extraordinary incident" that would enable the
liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

Observations show that the Armenians are far from making any
concessions at this point of time, taking advantage of their
victorious position. This challenges the success of the peace talks
on the settlement of the conflict. That is why such an incident
should happen that the Armenians have to sit at a negotiating table
and accept what Azerbaijan dictates. Experts think that the two
principles, that the parties are divided on, can also be resolved in
this case.

Based on the international experience experts say that "certain
incidents" are required to change the situation that has been
existing in a conflict zone for a long time. For example, Azerbaijan
may have started small-scale military operations in Karabakh under
the pretext of fires. Then, it would have been interesting for us to
find out what the international community thinks about it.

For all these reasons now it is considered more acceptable for
Azerbaijan to carry out a military operation in Karabakh. It is
possible to achieve progress only in this way.

Azeri community in Karabakh made official

The Azerbaijani community of Nagornyy Karabakh has become an entity
with official registration, as the Justice Ministry registered the
community as a public association called the Community of
Azerbaijanis of Nagornyy Karabakh.

Observers say that registering this community aims to add a new
"colour" to the peace talks on the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict because representatives of the Armenian and Azerbaijani
communities [of Nagornyy Karabakh] may be involved in the talks.