IT’S NOT AN ISSUE OF ARMENIAN ‘GENOCIDE’ DENIAL, STUPID …
Cengiz Candar – ccandar@superonline.com

The News Anatolian
Oct 11 2006

Opinions

A collision between the two trains is more imminent than expected. A
"train crash," code for describing the deep crisis between Turkey
and Europe has been predicted, if it cannot be avoided, for December,
following the progress report which is expected to be very critical
of Turkey’s recent performance on its way to accession in the European
Union. The greatest stumbling block has been the Cyprus issue.

Yet France, by introducing legislation on punishing all those denying
an Armenian "genocide" with five years in prison, is accelerating
that collision. The Armenian issue has overtaken the Cyprus one. If
the French Parliament passes the bill in tomorrow’s vote,
a collision will be unavoidable.

But, between whom?

After all, EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has warned the French
about the counter-productivity of the move, thus absolving the EU of
any responsibility in France’s irresponsible and damaging behavior.

The collision will surely take place between Turkey and France. However
it is impossible that such a collision won’t leave create a backlash
in the already troubled Turkish-EU relations.

That will add more fuel to the current public Turkish disillusionment
over its European prospects since it is not only France but also the
Netherlands and some other EU member states as well who are after
further alienating Turkey to keep it at a distance from the gates of
the EU.

The climate between Turkey and the EU would be poisoned to such an
extent that to be able to breathe the fresh air required to have
Turkey on board for accession will be very difficult.

Does Turkey have any other alternative, like moving closer to Russia,
Iran and its immediate neighborhood, as some in Ankara’s bureaucracy
have suggested on several occasions?

This is a non-option in terms of realpolitik.

However, further alienation of Turkey from the EU could also
destabilize Turkey and instability in Turkey would have repercussions
on European security, dwarfing the demise of Yugoslavia compared to
Turkey’s destabilization in a post-9/11 world with the specter of a
clash of civilizations.

The political dwarfs in France, be it the Socialists or the Nicholas
Sarkozy school of conservatives, have failed to grasp the strategic
implications of their petit-politics.

In contrast to neighboring political underweights in France and the
Netherlands, former Deputy Chancellor and German Foreign Minister
Joschka Fischer wrote an op-ed piece entitled "Turkey and Europe;
Two Trains About to Collide" in which he underlined, "By intervening
in Lebanon, Europeans have made a far-reaching, risk-fraught, and,
at the same time, correct decision. The reason is that the future
of Europe’s security will be determined in the eastern Mediterranean
and the Middle East.

Europe, whether it likes it or not, has taken on a new, strategic
role in the region. Should it fail, the price will be high.

"In view of the serious risks that Europe has assumed, in full
awareness of the consequences, it is of the utmost importance that
a European ‘Grand Strategy’ for the eastern Mediterranean and the
Middle East be developed so that Europe can calmly and clearly define
its interests. In any serious variation of this grand strategy,
Turkey will need to play a central role — politically, militarily,
economically, and culturally.

"Safeguarding Europe’s interests today means establishing a strong
link — indeed an unbreakable bond — with Turkey as a cornerstone of
regional security. So it is astonishing that Europe is doing exactly
the opposite: firmly closing its eyes to the strategic challenge
posed by Turkey.

"Successful modernization and democratization of Turkey — with a
strong civil society, the rule of law, and a modern economy — will
not only be hugely beneficial for the country, but will also export
stability and serve as a model for transformation in the Islamic
world. Above all, the successful modernization of a large Muslim
country will make a decisive contribution to Europe’s security."

He concluded, "Some in the EU — mainly in France, Germany and
Austria — seem smugly pleased by the prospect of a clash on this
issue, believing it will force Turkey to give up its drive for
membership. But this attitude is irresponsible. The EU is about to
commit a grave strategic error by allowing its report this autumn to
be guided by the short-sighted domestic policy considerations of some
of its important member states.

"Admittedly, Turkey has a long way to go. But to endanger this process
here and now, in full awareness of the possible costs, is an act of
very costly stupidity on the part of the Europeans — and stupidity is
the worst sin in politics. In European-Turkish relations, two trains
are racing headlong toward each other.

Neither Turkey nor Europe can afford the all-too-foreseeable crash."

The issue is not merely a French legislative process on the denial of
an Armenian "genocide;" it will have strategic ramifications. It has
only been a week since U.S. President Bush strongly endorsed Turkey’s
EU bid and interpreted it as being in "the U.S.’ national interests."

The Turkish government, therefore, could play its hand by
"internationalizing" its legitimate friction with France.