THE PERILS OF US-AZERBAIJANI STRATEGIC CO-OPERATION
By Justin Burke

Jane’s International Security, UK
Oct 16 2006

In addition to encouraging Azerbaijan to adapt its armed forces to
handle pipeline security, the US wants Baku’s support for a possible
armed response to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The
five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, have
offered an incentive package to Iran in return for Tehran’s commitment
to suspend uranium enrichment. As those negotiations make halting
progress, US officials continue to view military action as a possible
last resort. As Iran’s northern neighbour, Azerbaijan could serve as
a useful platform for raids against the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Azerbaijan’s attention these days is focused on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue. Long-running peace talks remain in stalemate over Karabakh’s
future status. Ethnic Armenians, who won control of the territory in
the early 1990s, seek international recognition of independence with
an eye toward eventual unification with the Armenian nation.

Meanwhile, Baku insists that the territory remains under Azerbaijani
control. A settlement appeared to be in the offing at the outset of
2006 but summits between President Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart,
Robert Kocharian, failed to produce the much-anticipated breakthrough.

As the chances for a political settlement faded, a variety of
Azerbaijani officials, including Aliyev, raised the possibility of
an attempt to regain Karabakh by force. A ceasefire, which has been
in effect since 1994, seems shaky as firefights and mortar exchanges
in the so-called contact zone are now an almost daily occurrence.

Energy exports give Azerbaijan the ability to upgrade its military,
which suffered a thrashing at the hands of Armenian forces during the
war. Rovnaq Abdullayev, the head of Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company,
has indicated oil extraction will more than double over the next four
years, reaching 65 million tonnes by 2009. Azerbaijani officials
openly say that they will use petro-profits to go on a procurement
binge. The country’s draft budget for 2007, submitted on 25 September
to President Aliyev, is expected to total about USD6 billion, of
which 13 per cent is projected to go to defence spending.

[End of non-subscriber extract]

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