FRANCO-TURKISH RELATIONS STRAINED
ISN, Switzerland
Oct 17 2006
A bill to penalize Armenian genocide denial has put tension on
relations between France and Turkey, as the latter attempts to shore
up support for its quest to join the EU.
Commentary by Federico Bordonaro in Rome for ISN Security Watch
(17/10/06)
The French National Assembly on 13 October passed a bill, which,
if approved by the Senate and signed by President Jacques Chirac,
would penalize anyone denying the Armenian genocide at the hands of
the Ottoman Turks with a fine of up to ~@45,000 (US$56,000) and one
year in prison.
The bill was proposed by the Socialist Party.
The French decision infuriated Turkey, whose government accuses Paris
of using the memory of the Turkish-Armenian clash in a demagogic way
and for domestic political reasons, as France prepares for the 2007
general elections.
Presidential candidates, according to an official in Ankara, are
trying to win the votes of those citizens opposed to Turkey’s EU
accession bid. Moreover, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
administration believes that France is "permanently hostile" to
Ankara’s EU integration.
Armenia claims that between 1915 and 1923, the Ottoman Empire
systematically murdered 1.5 million ethnic Armenians when Ankara
forced them out of its eastern regions. Turkey, however, says that
Armenian casualties were between 250,000 and 500,000, and denies that
any systematic genocide took place.
Chirac expressed his view during a phone conversation with Erdogan
on 14 October, reportedly saying that although France recognized the
Armenian tragedy as a genocide, the proposed law was "useless." The
French president’s attempt to appease Ankara came after Turkey
threatened the possibility of economic retaliation.
However, the controversy is far from over, and its economic and
political fallout is already spreading.
Turkish citizens protested against France over the weekend, while
Turkish Economy Minister Ali Babacan told media that although
the Erdogan government would not start a boycott campaign, other
organizations in Turkey might.
In fact, on 16 October, the Turkish daily Hurriyet quoted Bulent
Deniz, president of the Turkish Consumers’ Federation, as saying
that "a boycott against French products has already resulted in an
observed 30 percent drop in sales of goods for […] Total," a French
oil company and one of Paris’ top players in Turkey.
Moreover, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said in an official
statement on 14 October that Ankara had warned Paris that "if such a
bill were passed by its parliament, the loser would be France. Paris
will always be embarrassed by this."
France’s strategic and commercial relations with Turkey may be damaged
in such a way that large industrial interests, as well as defense
and energy-related cooperation projects, could be hindered.
Frederic Saint-Geours, CEO of Peugeot Automobiles, said last week
that economic retaliation by Turkey against French goods was "almost
certain," and would likely be painful for Peugeot, which holds between
5 and 6 percent of Turkey’s automobile market.
The Franco-German defense giant Eurocopter, which is owned by the
European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company, competes with other
big groups to provide Ankara with some 52 civilian and military
helicopters. The company could also suffer from the deteriorating
bilateral relations.
Lucrative contracts for civilian nuclear power plants and the massive
infrastructure of the fast-growing Turkish economy are also being eyed
by big French corporations. Should Ankara decide to boycott Paris,
the economic damage for France could be substantial.
However, the dispute is a politically thorny issue for Paris and
the EU. The French Parliament’s move comes at a time of increasing
difficulties in Euro-Turkish relations.
Prominent politicians in France, Germany and the Netherlands have
taken a hostile stance to Turkey’s EU integration, and now openly
speak in favor of a mere "special relationship" between the EU and
Ankara as opposed to its accession.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Erdogan on 5 October that "Turkey
must fully recognize [Greek-controlled] Cyprus" if it were to join the
EU. Since Germany will take the helm of the EU’s rotating presidency
next January, the announcement was a sign that Merkel would again
put pressure on Ankara.
Although Turkey remains crucial for European security, including in the
area of energy, Western European leaders appear increasingly sensitive
to cultural aspects of the integration issue, as the intellectual
debate over the political and social aspects of Islam is heats up
in Europe.
While Chirac may work to annul the bill, his chances of success are
not high, and the short-term outlook for Franco-Turkish relations is
bleak. Nicolas Sarkozy, the Union for a Popular Movement’s candidate
for the French presidency next year, is wagering on his electorate’s
opposition to Ankara’s accession, while the Socialists do not show
any enthusiasm for it, either. More generally, Euro-Turkish relations
appear to be deteriorating even as Ankara remains determined to join
the EU.
Federico Bordonaro, based in Italy, is an analyst of international
relations and geopolitics with the Power and Interest News Report
and Strategic-Road.com. He is an expert on the new structure of the
international system after the Cold War, the European integration
process, security and defense issues and political realism.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only,
not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).