A PRIZE SLIPPING AWAY

The Independent (London)
October 17, 2006 Tuesday
Fourth Edition

Turkey’s bid to enter the European Union received a double blow last
week. First came the parking of talks on Ankara’s membership after
objections by Greece and Cyprus. And then there was the vote by the
French Assembly to outlaw the denial of the Armenian genocide by the
troops of the Ottoman Empire some 90 years ago.

EU foreign ministers met yesterday with their Turkish counterpart to
repair some of the damage. But the real diplomatic crunch will come
next month when a report is due from the EU’s enlargement minister
on Turkey’s progress in implementing reforms since membership talks
began a year ago. If the report criticises Ankara’s refusal to open
Turkish ports to Cypriot ships and planes, as expected, EU leaders
at their next summit may decide to freeze entry negotiations entirely.

Once frozen, they would be very hard to re-start.

Pessimism over future enlargement is widespread. At the weekend
the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso,
gave the most downbeat official assessment yet of Turkey’s chances
of membership. He argued that it could be up to two decades before
Turkey is in a position to join. In the past the official line has
been that the process would take 15 years at most.

We learn that the French President, Jacques Chirac, has apologised to
the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for the provocatively
timed vote on the Armenian genocide by French deputies hostile to
Turkey’s bid. And with the ruling party against the bill, it is highly
unlikely to become law. But the damage has been largely done.

The French vote has played into the hands of Turkish nationalists
who argue that Europe does not really want Turkey in its cosy club.

Pro-European Turks are finding it increasingly difficult to argue
that "concessions" over Cyprus, Kurdish rights, and stronger ties
with Armenia are worth it. The Turkish government will now find it
impossible to recognise Cyprus before elections next year, for fear
of looking weak. A great prize could be slipping away. It would be
a great boost for Europe – ideologically and materially – if it were
to incorporate a predominantly Muslim country within its borders. And
in the meantime, Europe has a valuable opportunity to promote human
rights, free speech and a liberal economy in a land that borders
the Middle East. If Turkey is not politically engaged with Europe,
none of this can take place.

The rejectionists, both in Europe and Turkey, are in the ascendancy.

That spells trouble, not just for Turkey’s ambitions, but for Europe’s
future as a progressive and inclusive political force.