Regnum, Russia
Oct 21 2006

"What position should Baku take in Georgian-Russian confrontation?"
Azeri press digest

Politics
"Iran, just like any other country, has the right to develop its
nuclear power engineering," Azeri President Ilham Aliyev says in an
interview to Al Jazeera TV. He says that there is nothing illegal in
it. "If some countries or organizations feel anxious about this
problem, they should try to solve it. The sides should come to mutual
understanding. If this anxiety is well-grounded, it must be overcome.
However, the sovereign right of any state must also be implicitly
observed. That’s why we believe that negotiations are the only
possible way-out of this situation," says Aliyev.

He notes that Iran is Azerbaijan’s closest neighbor, and Baku cannot
but care for the fate of the Azeris living in Iran. "The security of
your neighbor is your own security. This is an axiom. And this is our
approach. That’s why we believe that any problems causing anxiety
should be solved through peaceful negotiations. Intimidation and
pressure will give nothing," says Aliyev. (Day.Az)

Aliyev also notes that the public in Azerbaijan is concerned about
Iran’s friendly relations with Armenia. "Just imagine, that country
has occupied our territories. Naturally, we attentively follow their
international contacts to see who is their friend and who is not. On
the other hand, there is a system of international relations. Iran is
not our only neighbor who has good relations with Armenia. I mean,
this factor should not influence Azerbaijan’s political decisions. On
the contrary, we should seek even better relations with Armenia’s
friends. And we are doing it." "In diplomacy Azerbaijan must play on
Armenia’s field," says Aliyev. (Day.Az)

Concerning the opening of an Azeri Consulate General in Los-Angeles,
Aliyev says that it is very important for Azerbaijan to have a
diplomatic representation there. "It is not a secret that California
is home to many Armenians. We have opened our consulate general there
to be there and to fight with them, with the Armenian lobby," he
says. Shortly, Azerbaijan will open an embassy in Argentina. "In
Latin America the strongest Armenian lobby is based in Argentina. You
may say – what sense in opening an embassy in a country we have no
serious contacts with, but we are doing it to fight with the Armenian
lobby in their territory. We must always be ahead of them. And we
are. Our diplomatic initiatives, political moves, integration with
the regional countries – all this is strengthening out positions,"
says Aliyev. (Day.Az)

Aliyev says that "today, Armenia has lost its diplomatic game."
"Their closest allies have become our allies, too, and have begun to
give even greater importance to Azerbaijan than to Armenia. As a
country, Armenia is not interesting, at all. On the one hand, it is a
geographic deadlock, on the other, we have made it an energy deadlock
by laying a bypass pipeline and will make it also a transport
deadlock by building the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railroad. We will do it
despite any protests by organizations and politicians who are far
from the region," says Aliyev. "We must fight them in all directions.
I have instructed our Government, all our patriots to fight Armenia
at all fronts until they leave our territory. When they leave our
territory, I think we will resume our relations and will continue to
live as neighbors," says Aliyev. (Day.Az)

"We hope that the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will
be settled peacefully. However, should the talks prove to be
unsuccessful, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan will, on the will of the
Azeri people and with the approval of the Head of State, take action
to liberate the Azerbaijani land from the Armenian invaders, the
Azerbaijani Defense Minister," Colonel-General Safar Abiyev stated on
October 16 in Baku during the meeting with the delegation of the Ad
Hoc Committee for Future Defense and Security of the Defense and
Security Committee of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. The delegation
was led by the Chairman of the Ad Hoc Committee Vahit Erdem.
The Defense Minister stressed that Azerbaijan co-operated with NATO
in 1994 within the framework of the Program "Partnership for peace",
and since 2004 the co-operation has been continued on the basis of
the Individual Partnership Action Plan. Abiyev informed the delegates
of the military-political situation in the South Caucasus, as well as
the history of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. He stressed that
"the deployment of large military arsenals in the Azerbaijani
territories occupied by Armenia poses a serious threat for the
large-scale economical projects in the region."
Azerbaijan-Armenia. Karabakh
"The Co-Chairs of OSCE Minsk Group have began taking their tasks very
seriously," Aydin Mirzazadeh, Vice Chairman of the Standing
Commission on Security and Defense of the Milli Majlis (Azerbaijani
Parliament), a member of the Political Council of the ruling party
"Yeni Azerbaijan" ("New Azerbaijan") Aydin Mirzazadeh told Trend

He pointed out that OSCE Co-Chairmen have intensified their visits to
the region. "The consistent character of the co-chairs’ visits,
periodical discussion of agenda issues as well as the growing number
of objective aspects give us ground to believe that things are
heading toward the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement", Mirzazadeh
said.

He stressed that the radial policy of the official Armenian
authorities in the matter is quite understandable – they came into
power on the wave of radicalism and nationalism. According to
Mirzazadeh, if the radical position of the present Armenian
authorities fails to satisfy the interests of the Armenian people,
they will show a different attitude during the forthcoming elections.

"The Azeri Government has no obligations to any organization not to
start a war," the former advisor of the Azeri president, political
expert Vafa Guluzade says to Mediaforum. He says that the May 1994
cease-fire agreement stipulates that "the cease-fire should last
until peace is achieved": "Azerbaijan has no other obligations, and
the Azeri President has repeatedly said that, if no peace agreement
is reached, Azerbaijan has an inalienable right to liberate its
occupied lands. However, this does not mean that Azerbaijan will war.
Everybody, particularly, Europe perfectly knows that Azerbaijan will
not war as the real occupant of the Azeri territory is Russia."
"Azerbaijan should undertake commitments only when it is sure that it
can win Armenia and Russia in war," says Guluzade. "Only then the EU
may ask Azerbaijan to undertake commitments not to win them."
Guluzade believes that, legally, nothing prevents Azerbaijan from
liberating its territories by war: there are no obligations saying it
can’t. However, Guluzade reiterates that war is a very hard scenario
as "the occupant" is Russia and, if Azerbaijan starts a war, it will
have to fight with Russia. Guluzade approves of Azerbaijan’s
commitments to international organizations: "All these obligations
concern democratization and compliance with the European standards."

"Azerbaijan may announce a boycott of imports from France, whose
National Assembly has adopted a pro-Armenian law," says Echo daily.
"The boycott will be one of the steps to prevent the French
Parliament from adopting the law criminalizing the denial of ‘the
Armenian Genocide’ in Ottoman Turkey," Azeri MP, member of the
Standing Parliamentary Commission on Defense and Security, the vice
chairman of the Ana Veten party Zahid Oruj says in a talk with the
daily.

To remind, last week the French National Assembly approved the first
reading of a bill criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide
that took place in Turkey during the WWI. The bill was approved by an
absolute majority of deputies. Those who will violate the law will
have to pay a fine worth 45,000 EUR ($56,500) or to go to jail for
one year. The French legislators passed the bill despite strong
protests by the Turkish and Azeri authorities. In order to take
force, the bill is yet to be approved by the Senate and ratified by
the President.

Oruj says that each Azeri citizen can show his protest against the
bill by boycotting French goods. This may be just one of the measures
against the bill. "I think it is quite normal and I believe that
people who feel insulted should act exactly like that," says Oruj.
True, people should take time with the boycott till the Azeri
authorities have given a political assessment of the situation.

Zerkalo daily says: "Indeed, it is terrifying to think that France is
one of the democracy ‘trendsetters’ in the world and that the
parliament of ‘democratic’ France has adopted an absolutely
non-democratic law and that the French authorities close their eyes
on all the crimes against humanity committed by Armenian terrorists
in the territory of the selfsame France."

Asked by New Time daily about the expediency of France’s further
participation in the OSCE MG after the French Parliament’s last
decision, political expert Rovshan Mustafayev said: "I personally
consider that the French co-chair should leave the OSCE MG format –
either voluntarily or under the pressure of the international
community. The best scenario is to involve Turkey in the OSCE MG
process. There is no limit for the quantity of the co-chairs, so,
Turkey may well become the fourth." Mustafayev noted that France has
always favored Armenia in the Karabakh peace process. "And now that
the French Parliament has passed such a decision, it would be naive
to hope that France will be impartial in the matter. So, France must
observe moral-ethical norms and formally quit the OSCE MG,"
Mustafayev said. (New Time)

Azeri Turk Gadynlary association demands removing France from the
OSCE MG. Echo reports that during a roundtable "Fictitious ‘Genocide’
of Armenians as a Way to Pressure Turkey," the Association said: "The
adoption of a bill punishing people for not recognizing the
‘Genocide’ of Armenians will certainly harm the image of France. That
country makes no distinctions between an aggressor- and a
victim-country and supports Armenia, who committed genocide against
the residents of the Azeri town of Khojaly."

In his turn, Azeri MP Fazail Ibragimli says that those who do not
wish to see Turkey in the EU immediately "remember" the so-called
Armenian Genocide. "As long ago as in the 1920s an Italian politician
said: "If somebody wants to get anything from Turkey or if Turkey
denies somebody anything, he immediately reminds that country of the
‘Genocide’ of Armenians," says Ibragimli. The head of the Azeri
community of Nagorno-Karabakh Nizami Bakhmanov also suggests removing
France from the OSCE MG. Day.Az reports Bakhmanov to say that the
adoption of the bill may have negative consequences. "The French
Ambassador to Azerbaijan tried to reassure us that the adoption
procedure consists of several stages. So, we have just to wait and to
take necessary steps if the law is still adopted," he says.

"The French Government does not support the legislative proposal of
the Socialist Party to criminalize the denial of the Armenian
Genocide. Moreover, the French Government objects to this
initiative," French Ambassador to Azerbaijan Bernard du Chaffaut said
during a press-conference in Baku. TURAN news agency reports him to
explain that in France there are two bodies that have the right to
advance a legislative initiative: the Government and the Parliament.
The Government’s documents are called bills, the Parliament’s ones –
legislative proposals.

In this particular case, the Socialist Party has made a legislative
proposal. Chaffaut said that in France the adoption of law is a
multi-stage procedure. Even if approved by the National Assembly, a
legislative proposal should be also approved by the Senate. The
Senate has the right to make changes to the text of the document and
to send it back to the National Assembly. If the National Assembly
rejects the changes, it can re-send it to the Senate. And if the
Senate rejects the proposal for the second time, the sides set up a
conciliatory committee who adopts the final decision.

Du Chaffaut said that on the previous day the French Foreign Minister
had told him on the phone that the French Government did not support
the initiative of the French parliamentarians. He even said that
France did not stipulate that Turkey should recognize the Armenian
Genocide for qualifying for the EU membership. In the Turkey-EU
problem, France stays adherent to the Copenhagen principles. They
stipulate the protection of human rights, the freedom of speech, the
respect of the rights of ethnic minorities and the recognition of the
independence of Cyprus. Concerning the address of the Azeri
Parliament to the National Assembly to France, which questions the
impartiality of France as a mediator in the Karabakh peace process,
Chaffaut said that the French co-chair of the OSCE MG represents the
position of the Government rather than the Parliament.

Azerbaijan-Georgia
Asked by Echo daily why the GUAM parliamentary speakers have
refrained from direct support of Georgia’s position in its conflict
with Moscow, political expert, doctor of history Eldar Ismailov said:
"In this situation, Georgia’s partners have shown a diplomatic tact,
and I think that to directly support Georgia in its conflict with
Russia would mean for them to enter into a similar conflict. None of
the GUAM states – except for Georgia – is ready for such a conflict
today. That’s why they expressed their attitude in a diplomatic form.
We don’t know what is happening backstage, but we understand that
Georgia had to address its GUAM partners and they had to express
their attitude in the form they did. This does not mean that they
sympathize with Russia in the conflict. I think that, in any case,
all the three countries should sympathize with Georgia, because they
all have problems with separatism, and Russia is actively benefiting
from them. Still none of them will benefit from antagonism with
Russia."

Zerkalo daily writes about the aggravation of Russian-Georgian
relations: "In this situation, Georgia very much needs the support of
Europe and its post-Soviet partners. The EU said it was firmly
resolved to stop the embargo and to restore good-neighbor relations
between Russia and Georgia. However, they in Europe also have
problems. The EU informal leaders (France, Germany and Italy) believe
that the Russian-Georgian conflict is a problem of two "third
states." In other words, the EU "old members" prefer not to quarrel
with Russia, who is their key fuel supplier and is getting
increasingly stronger due to growing oil and gas prices.

So, now, there is nothing else left Georgia to do but to rely on its
post-Soviet partners – GUAM states. However, the Chisinau Summit has
shown that they are not very much reliable either. So, Tbilisi can
only hope that GUAM will persuade the US and Europe to take more
pro-Georgian position.

And, certainly, Georgia will need special support from Azerbaijan.
However, it’s not all that simple. Moscow has really gone at Georgia,
and one of its key levers to pressure that country is economic
blockade, which will gradually aggravate the social-economic
situation there and will ultimately result in the overthrow of
Mikhail Saakashvili. Last autumn-winter Azerbaijan helped Georgia out
of energy crisis by lending the country natural gas. Now, Georgia is
asking for help again – last week Georgian Energy Minister Nika
Gilauri visited Baku with a view to sign a contract with the Azeri
Fuel and Energy Ministry for gas supplies to Georgia from Shah Deniz
field. It is known that Georgia wants to buy 300mln c m but it is not
known for how much. If Azerbaijan offers its gas at a lower price
than Russian Gazprom does, this may cause a controversial reaction in
Moscow.

The same is for the possibility of reselling Russian gas to Georgia.
Gazprom will certainly be against this intermediary mission.

It is not yet known either if the infrastructure for Iranian gas
supplies to Georgia will be ready by the end of this year. This is
not only an economic but also a political matter: Tehran is Moscow’s
strategic partner and hopes that it will help it avoid international
sanctions.

In other words, very shortly we may witness a situation when the
question – "Will Saakashvili hold out?" – will fully depend on
Azerbaijan. If Baku helps Georgia, the Azeris in Russia may face the
same situation as the Russia-based Georgians are facing now. On the
other hand, the US, who is very much interested in pro-western
Georgia, will active lobby others to support that country. So,
Azerbaijan may find itself between two fires. It will start haggling
again and will give preference to the force offering bigger political
dividends. (Zerkalo)

"Azerbaijan is ready to help Georgia by providing its territory for
Iranian gas supplies to that country," says Azeri Industry and Energy
Minister Natik Aliyev. "Today, a Georgian delegation led by Energy
Minister Nikoloz Gilauri has gone to Iran for negotiations. The sides
have not yet reached any specific agreement but, if they do, we are
ready to help Georgia to carry the Iranian gas via our territory,"
says Aliyev. Azerbaijan may also supply Georgia with gas this winter.
"Last year our country helped Georgia after the breakage of the gas
pipeline from Russia. We can help them this year, too, but only after
satisfying our own demand. If we have any gas left, we will supply it
to Georgia," says Aliyev. (525th Newspaper)

Echo says: "The main question is what position Azerbaijan should take
in the Georgian-Russian confrontation. On the one hand, if we start
helping Georgia, Moscow will start pressuring us, on the other, we
cooperate with Georgia in the framework of the pro-western GUAM bloc
and energy projects.

Besides, Tbilisi will seek to get the gas we buy from Russia. Last
year Azerbaijan provided Georgia with such assistance, but, today,
the situation is quite different. No coincidence that Azeri Fuel and
Energy Minister Natik Aliyev says that the possibility of Azeri gas
supplies to Georgia this winter will depend on the volume of gas
consumption inside Azerbaijan. This is just a diplomatic proviso – we
perfectly know how much gas on an average we consume a month in
winter. We also know how much we produce inside the country and buy
from Russia. In other words, our authorities have not yet made a
specific decision on the matter and are waiting for further
developments.

Thus, whatever its outcome, the open conflict between Russia and
Georgia will change the situation in the region. The Azeri
authorities should clearly decide – either we keep neutral or we
choose confrontation with Russia and strengthening of ties with GUAM.
And we are running short of time for the choice. (Echo)