CALMING THE CAUCASUS
The Monitor’s View

Christian Science Monitor, MA
Oct 23 2006

Georgia, a tiny democratic outpost on Russia’s southern flank, is
packing a big message. The two nations are locked in a high-stakes
political and economic standoff – one that reveals the limits of US
and European influence on former Soviet turf.

The crisis began earlier this month when Georgia, known for its 2003
"Rose Revolution" and pro-Western President Mikhail Saakashvili,
arrested four alleged Russian spies. The suspects were eventually
released to Russia, but Moscow has responded with uncalled-for
harshness: cutting off transportation and postal ties with the former
Soviet state, deporting many Georgians living in Russia, and shutting
down their businesses there.

The West might not pay much heed except that an escalation of tensions
could have serious consequences – for Western access to a Caspian oil
pipeline that runs through Georgia, for expanding Russian influence
in its "near abroad," and for possible violence in the volatile
Caucasus region.

Behind the standoff lies Georgia’s desire to join NATO in 2008 and to
bring back two small separatist regions that broke away in bloody wars
in the post-Soviet early 1990s. Russian peacekeepers, serving under
a UN mandate, are in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It’s no secret that
Moscow backs their drive for independence and would like them in its
sphere. Nor does it want NATO’s borders stretching across the Black
Sea to Russia’s back door.

The fear here is that any number of wrong moves – by Russian President
Vladimir Putin or by Mr. Saakashvili – could trigger violence that
would inflame the well-armed Caucasus region, and spark a series of
ethnic secessions from countries on Russia’s border.

Complicating all of this is the Western push for independence for
Kosovo, the former Yugoslav province claimed by Russian ally Serbia.

Mr. Putin sees that as justification for independence for Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Unsaid, but implied, would be independence for a host
of other areas Russia wants back, or more tightly under its control:
parts of Ukraine and Moldova, for instance, the long- disputed region
of Nagorno-Karabakh, and parts of central Asia.

Unless the US and Europe try seriously to address Russia’s real fears
about NATO encroachment, they may not – in the long run – be able to
prevent Russian maneuvering to buttress its periphery. Putin knows
he has the upper hand in the region. Much of the world might object
to his strong-arm, antidemocratic tactics, but he’s got most Russians
solidly behind him, and his country is flush with energy profits.

Politically, the West needs him to help solve the big-ticket crises
of Iran and North Korea. And, economically, Western Europe depends
on Russian oil and gas.

But in the shortterm, the West can help defuse Georgian-Russian
tensions by pointing to the dangers of escalation and a potential
war over Georgia’s breakaways. Over the weekend, the US secretary
of State called for "cooler heads to prevail." Saakashvili, who
needlessly provoked the crisis, has wisely renounced any military or
quick action to solve the separatist problem. Moscow would do well
to find a face-saving way to back down.