TURKEY RETURNS TO THE EAST

PanARMENIAN.Net
20.10.2006 GMT+04:00

The European path of development turned out to be a difficult one
and almost unnecessary for the Moslem Turkey.

After the French cold shower Turkey is likely to get one more of that
and this time it will be directed from where the country expects
it less of all. The case in point concerns the coming intermediate
elections in the USA Senate. The Republicans, the internal and external
policies of whose do not stand up to any criticism, are quite likely to
lose in the Democrats’ favor and at that time the issue of the Armenian
Genocide recognition by the USA will again appear on the agenda.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Indeed, for the sake of justice it is worth
mentioning that this question is always raised before the elections
and right after the elections it is safely forgotten until the next
ones come. However, this time the American lawmakers inspired by
the French example can pass if not an analogous bill, then, at least
will call "the events of 1915" to be Genocide. The support group of
Armenia in the USA Congress is rather influential and it can persist
in recognizing the Armenian Genocide, which in its turn will imperil
the longstanding strategic relations between the United States of
America and Turkey. As Turkish daily news has it, the administration of
President George Bush, as well as the administration of the preceding
president, both have been consistently evading the usage of the word
"genocide" in authoritative statements, in this way trying to avoid
the estrangement of Turkey. "But Turkey has always had weak positions
in the Congress.

The Democrats’ victory in the Senate can create a great deal of
problems for Turkey in its attempts to hinder the process of the
Armenian Genocide recognition. In case of the Democrats’ victory
the legislators will speed up the recognition of the Genocide before
the new Congress will start its work in January, 2007",-writes the
publication.

For the sake of justice we should mention that the relations
between the two countries have become worse after the intrusion of
the American forces into Iraq and after a new splash of interest to
the Kurdish problem. Of course the Americans clamor against Kurdish
militants but actually they rather back up the idea of the Kurdish
autonomy in Northern Iraq. The recent decision of Iraq concerning
the federal structure of the country in which the Kurds already get a
legally fixed status can become one more headache for Turkey. And it
means that the areas of Iraq that are rich in oil, including Kyrkuk,
will become the center of regional confrontation. Turkey, obsessing
with no natural energy supplies, is trying with all its might to
take Kurdistan under control to somehow make up for the deficiency
in energy. The USA is trying to have its part in the situation of the
unpredictable game of prices on the oil. And, surely America has more
chances to win over the Kurds to its side than Turkey does. By the
highest standards Turkey has nearly no more arguments for appealing
to the world community-neither the abrogation of article 301, nor the
realization of the obligations in front of EU concerning Cyprus give
any chances to Erdoghan’s government for joining EU. The recognition
of the Armenian Genocide and the opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border are both matters of such a far future as the membership of
Turkey into EU is.

However, if we judge not by the Turkish politicians’ statements but
by their affairs, then it turns out that they do not need Europe so
much. Certainly, it would not be bad to suppress Christian countries
with Islamic presence. But nothing came out. And it means that it
is necessary to return to the East, that is exactly what Redgep
Erdoghan is doing since the idea of Cemal Attaturk, that used to
be the founder of the Turkish State, lasted only for 70 years and
the Turks returned. The occurrence is quite a strange one when it
is considered that the history usually furthers and very seldom it
happens to move back.

"PanARMENIAN.Net" analytical department