TURKEY-EUROPE: THE WIDENING GAP
Prepared by: Carin Zissis

Council on Foreign Relations, New York
Oct 24 2006

A supporter of the True Path Party marches under a giant Turkish flag
during an anti-France protest. (AP/Murad Sezer)

The possibility of Turkish EU accession appears increasingly
uncertain. In recent weeks, European leaders have voiced unease over
Ankara’s membership bid, citing concerns over Turkey’s infringement
on freedom of expression and its embargo on Cypriot ships and planes
(AP), the latter a manifestation of a long-standing dispute over
division of the Aegean Sea with Greece. Some EU members, including
France and Germany, have suggested Turkey seek "privileged partnership"
rather than full membership. Olli Rehn, commissioner of EU enlargement,
opposed this idea, but warned the Turkish accession process that began
in October 2005 has been slowed by Ankara’s failure to repeal Article
301, which gives the government free reign to arrest journalists
and activists for disparaging Turkey. In an interview with the BBC,
EU President Jose Manuel Barroso said it could take twenty years for
Turkey to become a member nation.

Recent events have done little to ease growing EU-Turkey tensions
and Europe seems hesitant to absorb the overwhelmingly Muslim nation
of more than 70 million people. France’s parliament recently angered
Ankara when it decided to make criminal the denial of mass killings of
Armenians under the Ottoman Empire. The law was condemned by Turkish
author Orhan Pamuk (Reuters), who was previously indicted under Article
301 for raising the issue of the genocide and who received the Nobel
Prize for Literature the same day the French rule passed. Europe-Turkey
relations also took a hit last month when Pope Benedict XVI’s comments
about Mohammed sparked widespread Muslim protests and temporarily
put the pope’s November visit to Turkey in doubt.

Experts say such obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership could lead
to missed opportunities for making inroads in Christian-Muslim
relations. Denis MacShane, Britain’s former Europe minister, writes
in the Financial Times that the Armenian genocide had little to do
with modern Turkey and warns against Europe’s increasingly demeaning
attitude toward Ankara. He asks, "How much longer will this secular,
democratic, Muslim country look westwards to a European future,
instead of turning east?" Sedat Laciner, director of Ankara-based
think tank International Strategic Research Organization, criticizes
"unsuccessful politicians" in Europe for condemning his country, and
argues that EU accession would help "erode the unilateral policies"
of the United States and Israel in the Middle East by drawing Europe
closer to the region.

The problems in Europe coincide with a breakdown in U.S.-Turkey
relations, despite Washington’s support for the country’s EU
membership. This Council Special Report from June describes the
"fractured alliance" and says that although Washington and Ankara
agree that an Iraq splintered into three independent states is not in
either country’s interests, Turkey is frustrated by the U.S. handling
of the Iraqi war. Tensions also exist over America’s failure to
support the Turkish fight against the separatist Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK). In an August interview, CFR Fellow Steven A. Cook said
the United States is unwilling to go after PKK cells in northern
Iraq because "it would be foolhardy from a military perspective…to
go after the PKK and destabilize the one region where people really
aren’t shooting at Americans." Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise
Institute says the United States is too soft on Turkey’s government
(WSJ) and U.S. diplomats should stop delivering "PC platitudes" that
fail to address the "anti-secular agenda" of Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party.