The South Caucasus in between Russian claims and Georgian pro-western policy

28.10.2006 15:15
Armen Manvelyan
"Radiolur"

This week the constantly sharpening relations between Russia and
Georgia turned into a real crisis. The scandal connected with the
arrest of Russian Officers accused of spying served as a reason for
`diplomatic war.’ In Georgia it was expressed with anti-Russian
statements, in response to which the Russian side undertook mass
deportation of Georgian nationals and withdrawal of Russian citizens
from Tbilisi. The situation has got so tense that the press is already
discussing the possibility of a military clash. In the current
situation Russia actually utilizes all its power to apply economic
sanctions against Georgia, while the latter is trying to get the
support of the US and European structures in the unequal struggle
against its Northern neighbor.

The tense situation is a serious blow not only for the conflicting
sides, but also for the region as a whole and Armenia, in
particular. Regional instability exerts not only political, but also
economic impact on us. It’s no secret that good relations with both
Russia and Georgia are of strategic importance for Armenia. We are
linked to the parties with political, military and regional questions,
and it is clear that we are probability one of the few countries, if
not the only one, to be interested in the improvement of relations
between the sides. Turning to the relations between the two countries
we can say that we observe the clash of Russian claims and pro-Western
policy of Georgia, that is to say that Russia is aspiring to resume
the status of its ever great power, while relying upon the `West will
save us’ principle Georgia refuses to launch a dialogue with its
northern neighbor. The whole danger of this kind of policy of official
Tbilisi is rooted in the fact that for coming to terms with Russia on
some important question, let’s say the gas issue, the West mat betray
the Georgian interests, as it was the case in the UN Security Council,
where the Russian side managed to have an anti-Georgian bill pass,
which ascribed the whole responsibility for the situation in Abkhazia
to official Tbilisi, and the activity of Russian peacekeepers was
considered effective. Russians managed to have the bill pass through
concessions to the US in the North Korean issue. The same refers to
the question of Georgia’s accession to NATO. The West, particularly
the United States, does not conceal its positive toward this
aspiration of Georgia; however, it simultaneously declares that NATO
will not send peacekeepers to the conflict zone. Besides, it is known
that the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia comprise serious
obstacles on Georgia’s way to the North-Atlantic Alliance. No matter
how mach Russia protests, it will not manage to prevent Georgia’s
entry into NATO, while Abkhazia and South Ossetia can permanently
block Georgia’s entry into this military block, since NATO will never
accept a country having two unsettled conflicts on its territory.
Nevertheless, it should be stated that unfortunately Armenia can do
little in a situation, where the sides do not wish to listen to each
other and speak the language of ultimatums. It is clear that both
Tbilisi and Moscow do not wish to allow any mediation for negotiating
with each other, but official Yerevan should apply every effort to
bring the parties to the bargaining table, refusing from unacceptable
statements against each other. At the same time the sides must realize
that for having influence over the South Caucasus, Russia needs to
have good relations with Georgia, while accomplishment of the Western
policy of Tbilisi is possible only after establishment friendly
relations with Moscow.