FINALLY, PROGRESS ON KARABAKH PEACE TALKS?
By Fariz Ismailzade

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Oct 31 2006

Recent statements by Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian at
the Armenian National Assembly have raised hopes in Azerbaijan that a
peaceful resolution to the Karabakh conflict is near. Specifically,
Oskanian said, "We will discuss the return of all territories after
the agreement on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is reached." The key
word in this sentence is "all."

Until now, the barrier to the resolution of the Karabakh conflict
has been the unwillingness of the Armenian side to return all
occupied regions outside of Karabakh. Official Yerevan has long
insisted that only five out of seven regions would be returned,
and Kalbajar and Lachin would be kept until the final resolution of
the conflict. Both of these districts have special importance from
a geostrategic perspective, as Kalbajar, with its high mountains,
forms a natural defense system for Karabakh and Lachin provides a land
corridor between Armenia and Karabakh. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has
insisted on the liberation of all territories, with the possibility
of providing joint usage to the Lachin corridor.

Oskanian’s statement indicates a possible change of attitude inside the
Armenian political establishment and a small hope for the resolution of
the conflict. Both sides are aware that the year of 2006, considered
by local observers and international community as a "window of
opportunity" due to the absence of elections in both countries,
is rapidly coming to an end. The independent daily Zerkalo in Baku
has even speculated that the Armenian authorities have started to
lay the foundations for explaining the terms of the settlement to the
Armenian public, as the "tone of Oskanian was more that of calming the
members of Parliament." Zerkalo compared this act by the high-level
government official with the attempt by former Armenian President Levon
Ter-Petrosian to sell a "step-by-step" proposal to the Armenian public.

Prior to Oskanian’s statement, he met with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov in Paris on October 24 to discuss "additional
elements of the basis of settlement" suggested by the OSCE’s Minsk
group co-chairs: Russia, the United States, and France.

Mammadyarov also visited Moscow several weeks ago to separately
discuss the settlement package with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov. Many in Azerbaijan believe that Moscow, Armenia’s closest
military and political ally, holds the key to resolving the Karabakh
conflict.

Both foreign ministers have agreed to further negotiate the offers
by the international community in Brussels on November 14. They are
using the current break in the talks to discuss these new proposals
with their respective presidents and other domestic actors. Neither
Oskanian nor Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov have
ruled out a meeting between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in late 2006, after the November
meeting of the foreign ministers and the co-chairs’ subsequent visit
to the region. Taken together, these statements are positive signs,
as they indicate that the positions of the two sides are slowly
approaching each other, rather than widening the long-standing gap.

Commenting on the statements by Oskanian, Tahir Tagizadeh, head
of the Information and Press Department of the Azerbaijani Foreign
Ministry, said that Azerbaijan considers these statements to be very
positive. "The liberation of the occupied territories and the return
of the [internally displaced persons] to their homes is an unavoidable
fact for the Armenian side."

Still, many analysts in Baku doubt that the recent positive
statements by both sides will end up with the final settlement of
the conflict. Indeed, the underlying problem is not the dispute over
the return of the occupied territories, which many assume would be
returned anyway, but rather the final status of Karabakh itself. The
idea of a referendum as a means to resolve the "status" problem seems
vague, and it is not clear if both communities would participate in
it with equal power to vote no. Should the referendum idea be coupled
with the agreement to give the majority ethnic group (Armenians) more
power over the minority ethnic group (Azeris), it will be extremely
difficult for the Azerbaijani president to accept this decision.

As the next two years will be consumed by elections in both countries,
it will be almost impossible for both presidents, having internal
threats from both the opposition and from within the ruling elite,
to agree on the painful concessions. Thus, despite the high optimism
generated by the recent rapprochement of the positions of two sides,
the picture remains bleak for the next several years.

(Trend News Agency, Sherg, ANS TV, Zerkalo, Echo, October 25-27, 2006)