ARMENIAN REPORTER
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Email: sylva@armenianreporteronline.com

November 4, 2006

1. Armenia will invite long-term election observers, President
Kocharian confirms

2. Former Pentagon official: Azerbaijan’s oil revenue will not make a
military difference

3. President Kocharian confirms details of Russia-Armenia pipeline deal

4. Vincent Lima is the new editor of the "Armenian Reporter"

5. Editorial: Vote

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1. Armenia will invite long-term election observers, President
Kocharian confirms

YEREVAN–President Robert Kocharian confirmed on October 27 that
Armenia would invite Western monitors to observe the 2007 National
Assembly elections, which are expected to be held in May. The
invitation would include "both long-term and short-term international
monitoring missions," the president told a meeting of the ambassadors
of European Union countries in Yerevan.

Long-term monitors generally arrive up to 100 days before an election
to meet with local and national officials and observe electoral
campaigns. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE), which observes elections through its Warsaw-based Office for
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, sends observers six to eight
weeks before election day.

According to National Assembly chairperson Tigran Torosian,
observation missions have not yet been invited because no date has
been set for the elections.

An elections expert at one of the international organizations in
Yerevan told the Armenian Reporter that Armenia does not need to issue
formal invitations before January. Timing is more critical in the
reform of the electoral code, which is now underway. Amendments to the
law on elections are likely to be signed into law in January, which
will put training and implementation on a very tight schedule, the
expert noted.

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2. Former Pentagon official: Azerbaijan’s oil revenue will not make
military difference

by Emil Sanamyan; special to the "Armenian Reporter"

WASHINGTON, D.C.–"Outlines of a settlement in Nagorno Karabakh are
very clear…. The Armenians get Karabakh and Lachin corridor and the
Azeris get the surrounding territories."

E. Wayne Merry, a former State and Defense Department official who
dealt with the conflict, said this in a lecture on Wednesday, October
25, 2006, titled "Diplomacy and War in Karabakh: An Unofficial
American Perspective," hosted by the Johns Hopkins University’s
Central Asia Caucasus Institute.

Speaking in an unofficial capacity, Mr. Merry said that in the case of
Karabakh it makes no sense for the U.S. to cling to Soviet-era
administrative borders drawn up by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

In the end, Mr. Merry stressed, "The solution is to recognize reality
and redraw the borders."

In 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh used existing laws and international norms
to secede from Soviet Azerbaijan following years of brutal
anti-Armenian pogroms and Soviet government-enforced crackdowns and
violence against the population of Karabakh. Azerbaijan subsequently
launched a full-scale war, trying to expel Karabakh’s Armenian
population. The war eventually resulted in Azerbaijan’s defeat and a
cease-fire agreement in May 1994. While Armenian-Azerbaijani talks
have continued since then, Azerbaijan’s government has grown
increasingly bellicose, demanding control over Armenian-populated
Karabakh and threatening renewed use of force.

But the Pentagon’s former Caucasus expert argued that Azerbaijan’s
growing oil revenue would not give it sufficient advantage to resolve
the issue militarily. Mr. Merry said there were five main reasons for
this: geography, firepower, reserves, military art, and strategic
depth.

According to Mr. Merry, Armenians have a clear geographic advantage,
with their forces dug in on higher ground along most of the Line of
Contact. This in turn creates an opportunity for a more effective use
of firepower–even if both sides have similar military hardware.
Armenians can also count on ample reserves of both combat veterans and
ammunition.

"To put it bluntly, Azerbaijan would run out of young men before
Armenians run out of ammunition," Mr. Merry explained.

Further, the Armenian side has a proven ability to conduct military
operations. "Azerbaijan has armed forces, Armenia has a military" Mr.
Merry noted. In terms of strategic depth, only Turkey is likely to
support Azerbaijan. The four other major players, including Russia,
Iran, United States, and the Europeans, have no interest in imposing
an Azerbaijani solution on Armenians.

According to Mr. Merry, Azerbaijan would need to overcome all of these
obstacles to claim victory. "I doubt they could overcome any…. If
Azerbaijan resumes armed conflict, it will be defeated," Mr. Merry
warned. "People [in Azerbaijan] who say ‘let’s go to war because we
won’t be any worse off’ are very dangerous people, because wars always
make things worse–often unpredictably and catastrophically worse."

Mr. Merry argued that there are three major forces in international
affairs: demography in the long term, economics in the middle term,
and war in the short term. "Diplomacy is not a force, it is a
mechanism," he said. "This is a mechanism for ratifying, not reversing
the battlefield." But, Mr. Merry said, most of the diplomatic effort
around the Karabakh conflict focused on management of the conflict
rather than resolving it. The major reason for this is that a
continued status quo is politically an easier option for each side,
while a solution would require difficult compromises.

Mr. Merry’s remarks were welcomed by two former U.S. ambassadors to
Armenia in the audience. Retired ambassador Harry Gilmore (1993-95)
noted that a "great opportunity" was missed in April 2001, when
Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents met under the mediation of the
U.S. secretary of state at the time, Colin Powell, in Key West, Fla.
According to credible reports, a deal discussed at the time also
entailed Karabakh’s formal unification with Armenia.

Ambassador John Evans (2004-06), speaking in a private capacity, noted
that a breakthrough in the Karabakh peace process remains unlikely.
Ambassador Evans noted in a February 2005 lecture that placing
Karabakh within Azerbaijan, as the latter demands, would be "a
disastrous step."

During his 26-year career with the U.S. Foreign Service, Mr. Merry
dealt with the Karabakh conflict while serving as a political officer
at the U.S. Embassy in Russia (1991-94), during a tour with the
Department of Defense as its regional director for Russia, Ukraine,
and Eurasia (1995-97) and as senior adviser to the U.S. Commission on
Security and Cooperation in Europe (1997-98). Merry is currently a
senior associate at the American Foreign Policy Council, a D.C. think
tank.

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3. President Kocharian confirms details of Russia-Armenia pipeline deal

YEREVAN (Combined sources)–President Robert Kocharian confirmed on
Monday, October 30, 2006, that Russia’s state-run Gazprom monopoly
would gain a controlling stake in Armenia’s national gas distribution
company that will likely own the incoming gas pipeline from Iran.

Mr. Kocharian gave the information as he met with Russian president
Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. "I would like to immediately inform you
that all of our serious agreements on energy projects with Gazprom are
entering the implementation phase," he said in remarks posted on the
Kremlin’s website. "Just a few days ago, they were finally approved by
the Gazprom board."

On the previous Friday, Gazprom’s board had approved and announced the
issuance of additional shares in the ArmRosGazprom (ARG) operator,
saying that it will buy all of them and thereby raise its ARG stake
from 45 percent to 58 percent. Karen Karapetian, director general of
the ARG network, said Tuesday that Gazprom will pay $118.8 million to
increase its shares.

The Armenian government has until now owned another 45 percent of ARG,
with the remaining 10 percent belonging to ITERA, a private Russian
gas exporter.

The pipeline deal was among the economic issues on the agenda of Mr.
Kocharian’s talks this week with Mr. Putin. The latter described as
"shameful" the fact that Russia is only the third largest foreign
investor in Armenia. "I say ‘shameful’ because it is odd that Russia
does not occupy the first place in terms of investments in the economy
of its strategic partner," Mr. Putin said.

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4. Vincent Lima is the new editor of the "Armenian Reporter"; Aris
Sevag steps down

Minneapolis, Minn.–Vincent Lima has been appointed the editor of the
"Armenian Reporter," CS Media Enterprises, LLC, the newspaper’s
publisher, announced. Aris Sevag stepped down last week, after 15
years as the paper’s managing editor.

Mr. Lima joined the senior management of CS Media in March. He has
worked closely in that capacity with Mr. Sevag and Sylva Boghossian,
publisher of the "Armenian Reporter."

"Vincent brings a wide range of skills and experience, as well as
energy and excellent judgment to the ‘Reporter,’" said John Waters,
vice president of CS Media. "He is charged now with making the
‘Reporter’ a resource that can inform, entertain, and inspire ever
more readers."

Mr. Lima has long had a high profile in the Armenian-American
community as an editor and public intellectual. He edited the
scholarly journal "Armenian Review" from 1989 to 1996. He then started
"Armenian Forum: A Journal of Contemporary Affairs" with his colleague
Ara Sarafian. He served also as director of the Gomidas Institute,
which has published dozens of books in the last few years.

"As editor, I hope to build on the strengths of the ‘Armenian
Reporter,’" said Mr. Lima. "One of these strengths is our coverage of
Armenian-American community affairs and advocacy. Next week, we will
start introducing new talent that is joining us to bring greater depth
to this coverage."

Asking readers to be vocal about their opinions, Mr. Lima said, "We
have ambitious plans for the newspaper, both in print and online. We
will roll out many innovations over the weeks, months, and years to
come. As we do so, we will be listening closely to what our readers
have to say."

"The ‘new’ ‘Armenian Reporter’ is going to be true to its roots and
loyal to our faithful readers," said Sylva Boghossian, publisher of
the "Armenian Reporter." "But we are also reaching out to a new
generation of readers. I am looking forward to working closely with
Vincent as we make this happen together. I also want to take this
opportunity to wish Aris the best at his new job. I will miss the
close collaboration we have had over the years, and credit him with
helping make the ‘Armenian Reporter’ such a vital part of our
community."

Before joining CS Media, Mr. Lima worked in the testing industry,
where he developed content for high-stakes tests. For the American
Institute of Certified Public Accountants, he worked on innovative
products (such as auditing simulations) for the Uniform CPA
Examination; prior to that he wrote and reviewed questions for the
Analytical sections of the GRE and the Critical Reasoning sections of
the GMAT.

Mr. Lima is a graduate of the New School for Social Research in New
York City. He did graduate work there under Eric J. Hobsbawm; he
continued his graduate studies in history at the University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor, under Ronald Grigor Suny and Juan Cole. He has
taught at the University of Michigan and Tufts University. He recently
moved to Yerevan with his partner Martha Boudakian and their two
daughters.

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5. Editorial: Vote

Day in and day out, American citizens of Armenian descent reach out to
their elected representatives by letter, by e-mail, by phone, and
through their lobbying and advocacy organizations. We give generously
to the campaigns of our friends.

That is every day. But November 7, Election Day, is the moment of truth.

Will we show up at the polls and elect the candidates who best
represent our values and our interests? Will we display the collective
might that our lobbying efforts claim on our behalf? We believe so.

We urge our readers to vote on Election Day.

* * *

Voters in Armenia, meanwhile, will get to exercise their right to vote
in just over six months.

We welcome President Kocharian’s announcement this week confirming
that Armenia will invite international monitors to observe the
elections. An important element of the announcement was that the
invitations would encompass long-term observers. These observers will
follow the campaign season closely. Their presence will help
discourage violations and ensure that voters are aware of all their
options on Election Day.

Indeed, while our focus today is on Election Day, we must not lose
sight of the ongoing nature of democratic participation. There is no
question that Armenia’s elections must be free and fair. But the
hallmark of a true democracy is a culture of vigorous and thoughtful
debate on the issues that matter to the country and its people.

Still, it is on Election Day that the people make their choices. And
it is then that they gain–or lose–faith that their voice counts.

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