ARMENIA CONCENTRATES ON BALANCING ACT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND GEORGIA
Haroutiun Khachatrian
EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 8 2006
Worsening relations between Georgia and Russia continue to pose a
difficult problem for Armenia, as it tries to maintain some form of
balance in its relations with the two sides.
The effect of these tensions for the Armenian economy remains a
paramount concern. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive.]
Armenian President Robert Kocharian’s October 30-November 1 state
visit to Russia, which included meetings with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, was a case in
point. In remarks to reporters, Kocharian noted that while Russia’s
transportation blockade with Georgia could pose difficulties for
bilateral trade between Russia and Armenia, "serious [Russian]
investment projects" would help compensate Yerevan for any economic
damage done by the Georgian embargo, the ITAR-TASS quoted Kocharian as
saying. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive.]
Those investments appear to be growing. Russian energy giant Gazprom’s
acquisition of a controlling stake in the country’s gas distribution
network and, through this, potential control over an Armenian
section of an Iranian gas pipeline, its recent takeover of the fifth
unit of the Hrazdan electricity plant, and Russian company Rusal’s
modernization of aluminum manufacturer Armenal are among the most
prominent of these "serious" investment projects. Unlike neighboring
Georgia, Armenia will see its current $110 per 1,000 cubic meters
price for Gazprom gas frozen until 2009 in return for transferring
ownership of the Hrazdan unit to the Russian company, the government
has announced. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive.]
On November 3, announcement was also made that the Russian firm
VimpelCom has purchased a 90 percent stake in ArmenTel, the country’s
main mobile telecommunications carrier. The government will retain
the remaining 10 percent stake in the company.
Despite these signs of robust business ties, concerns about Russia’s
position toward Armenia have been growing since mid-October, when
nationalist Russian parliamentarian Konstantin Zatulin, a member
of the pro-Kremlin party United Russia, protested at an October
17 meeting of the Russian-Armenian inter-parliamentary commission
in Yerevan that Armenia "does not support its strategic partner
[Russia]" in its conflict with Georgia. Zatulin, who has previously
cast himself as pro-Armenian on the issue of the disputed territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh, called on Yerevan to choose between "normal
relations" with Russia or Georgia, the daily newspaper Haykakan
Zhamanak reported.
Zatunin’s statements met with almost unanimous protest by the Armenian
political elite, although some, like Armen Ashotian, a member of the
governing Republican Party, have stressed that the remark is the view
of one politician, not the official position of the Russian Federation.
Nonetheless, Armenian officials have continued to address the
Russian-Georgian dispute cautiously. "Current Russian-Georgian
relations are these countries’ internal problem," Prime Minister
Andranik Margarian said at a joint press conference on October 24
with Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Sidorski. "Armenia… should
not interfere with the resolution of this problem."
Margarian, however, has stated that Armenia is ready to "help with
the… solution" for the impasse between President Putin and Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili if asked by Russia or Georgia.
So far, neither Moscow nor Tbilisi has shown interest in mediation.
At a November 1 meeting on the sidelines of a Moscow gathering
of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation, Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian and Georgian Foreign Minister Gela
Bezhuashvili met, but details on the conversation were scarce. In a
succinct statement, the Armenian Foreign Ministry stated that the
two men discussed "issues of bilateral relations, the influence
of Russian-Georgian relations on the region and possibilities for
softening the current tension," the news service Mediamax reported.
Before the talks, Georgian Ambassador to Armenia Revaz Gachechiladze,
in an October 30 meeting with National Assembly Chairman Tigran
Torosian, thanked Armenia for its "balanced approach."
Greater speculation about Armenia’s relations with Georgia and Russia
has surfaced in media coverage of the October 10 arrest of Vahagn
Chakhalian, one of the leaders of the Miasnakan Javakhk, or United
Javakhk, non-governmental organization in Georgia’s predominantly
ethnic Armenian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti. Chakhalian was jailed
for two months pending trial for having allegedly "illegally" crossed
Georgia’s border with Armenia. On October 30, he was released. Some
local publications have argued that the release was at Russia’s
request.
Chakhalian’s arrest surprised most Armenians since no visa regime
exists between the two states; the arrest of an ethnic Armenian
for entering Armenia struck many as strange. Some members of the
opposition, including the Dashink Party of former Nagorno-Karabakh
warlord Samvel Babayan, said the arrest had been made at the request
of Tbilisi officials who wanted to curtail United Javakhk’s support
for ethnic Armenians in Samtskhe-Javakheti. (The leader of a rival
non-governmental organization to Miasnakan Javakhk has gone even
further, charging that Chakhalian was working with Georgian special
services to destabilize the region and push ethnic Armenians out
of the area.) The movement’s opposition to the construction of the
Kars-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki railroad, which will connect the region with
Turkey, was seen as the reason for such action.
Both pro-government and opposition publications share strong opposition
to this project. Yerevan fears the line would further isolate Armenia,
currently hemmed in by blockades on its borders with Turkey and
Azerbaijan. On October 19, the pro-government daily newspaper Hayots
Ashkharh published an analysis that argued that the railroad would
damage ties between Armenia and Georgia, and urged the Saakashvili
government not to harm its relations with Armenia for "a $200 million
bribe by Turks and Azeris."
The opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak, a pro-Western publication
close to former President Levon Ter-Petrossian’s Armenian National
Movement, has taken a different approach. In its October 19 issue, the
paper argued that Russia could use Miasnakan Javakhk to put pressure
on Georgia. The newspaper Iravunk followed that line on November 3,
saying that Miasnakan Javakhk’s "strongly pro-Russian" position and
activities are "certain to worry Armenian Prime Minister… Margarian
and [Defense Minister] Serzh Sarkisian" as they pursue dialogue with
the West.
The government, to date, has not responded to the allegations.
Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.