TURKEY’S EU BID

Washington Times
Nov 8 2006

The long-term future of Turkey, an important American ally in a tough
neighborhood, as a secular, Western-oriented Islamic democracy could be
substantially undermined by the rejection of its bid for membership
in the European Union. The outcome of that process, however, is
looking considerably bleaker than it did when accession talks began
in October 2005.

In a report to be released today, the European Commission criticizes
Turkey on civil-rights reforms, including preserving the freedom of
speech and curtailing torture, and meeting EU stipulations with regards
to the divided island of Cyprus. The critical report will certainly
be used to build a diplomatic case against Turkish membership, which
could take a serious turn for the worse with a suspension of accession
talks at the EU summit in December.

Popular support for the process on both sides has dwindled. Many
in Turkey were upset by what they believe to be a double standard,
a higher bar than has been required of other nations that joined
the EU. Enthusiasm for Turkish membership in the EU was very strong
during Turkey’s 2002 elections, which brought to power the Justice
and Development Party (AKP), a pro-Islamic party that also had a
pro-EU platform. Since then, however, disenchantment has grown in
Turkey along with the perception that the membership process may in
fact be moribund, permanently mired in endless demands for reform.

Opposition in Europe may reflect what Ollie Rehn, the EU expansion
commissioner, called "enlargement fatigue," a reaction to the growth of
the bloc from 15 member countries to 25 in 2004. That Turkey, a Muslim
country and poor by comparison, would become the second-largest nation
in the EU also factors into the opposition. The French Parliament in
October backed a bill that would criminalize denial of the Armenian
genocide, the 1915 massacre that the Turkish government does not
recognize, in a move that further estranged Turkey. Germany, France
and Austria have voiced their preference for an alternative to full
membership — a proposal that Turkey would not accept.

Turkey certainly has substantial progress to make, both in terms of
human rights and economic reforms. But the promise of membership
in the EU will serve as a great incentive to drive those reforms,
provided that Turkey itself remains committed to joining. The EU
requirements should be designed to facilitate Turkey’s accession
process, not to provide fodder against the bid sometime later in the
process. Turkey’s long-term future as a secular, Western-oriented
country will be heavily contingent on the outcome. With concurrent
soured relations with both the United States and Europe, Turkey’s
inclination will be to turn toward an Islamic East, and that outcome is
not in the strategic interests of either the United States or Europe.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress