AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT ALIYEV WALKS TIGHTROPE BETWEEN RUSSIA, WEST
By Valentinas Mite

Radio Free Europe, Czech Rep.
Nov 9 2006

PRAGUE, November 9, 2006 (RFE/RL) — Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
visited Moscow today on the heels of a trip to Brussels during which he
signed a memorandum on cooperation in energy with the European Union.

Ahead of the visit, President Vladimir Putin officially gave his stamp
of approval to his Azerbaijani counterpart’s visit to EU headquarters
and NATO.

"I would like to congratulate you on your successful visit to
Brussels," Putin said. "I know, indeed, the visit was very practical,
concrete. Important agreements have been made regarding Azerbaijan’s
participation in European efforts in the energy field."

Behind The Scene

But some observers believe that away from the microphone, Putin cannot
have much good to say about Azerbaijan’s efforts to curry favor in
the West.

Ali Kerimli, who heads leading Azerbaijani opposition party Popular
Front, says the issue was sure to be a hot topic during today’s talks.

"Every year it is becoming more and more difficult for Aliyev to stay
in two places at the same time," Kerimli said. "To be at a friend,
a satellite, a supporter of the authoritarian Russia, and at the same
time to participate in all the NATO and EU integration programs."

A commentary in the Russian daily "Kommersant" on November 9 suggested
that, as compensation for this policy, Russia might ask Azerbaijan to
participate in an energy blockade of Georgia. The daily wrote that
the Kremlin is prepared to offer Russian investment in Azerbaijan’s
energy sector and also to supply Russian armaments at a discount.

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, branded as a "strategic
partnership," are complicated.

The Karabakh Card

Shain Abbasov, an independent analyst based in Baku, says many in
Azerbaijan believe that the resolution of Azerbaijan’s conflict
with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is in the hands of Moscow, not in
the West.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been under the control of Armenia since a 1994
cease-fire ended a six-year war. Russia plays a key mediating role
as the sides try to come to an agreement on the region’s final status.

However, Kerimli has said the conflict serves Moscow by helping Russia
to preserve its influence in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Analyst Abbasov says the Kremlin’s policy toward Armenia, a Russian
ally, remains more benign than toward Azerbaijan.

"Armenia is a traditional Russian ally in the southern Caucasus,"
Abbasov said. "You know that Azerbaijan is a member of GUAM, which
in principle is considered to be an anti-Russian political grouping
and nobody tries to hide it very much. So there is no doubt that
Azerbaijan is trying differently from Armenia to balance its foreign
policy between the West and Russia."

Analysts have also suggested that some practices in Azerbaijan —
antidemocratic ones — serve to bring it closer to Russia than
the West.

Everything Under Control

Abbasov, for example, says Aliyev is clearly following Russia’s model
of "controlled democracy."

Azerbaijani police breaking up an opposition demonstration in November
2005 (AFP)"In fact, Azerbaijan is clearly following the Russian way,
the way of Putin’s democracy," he said. "It is under way already
now. There is no question which way Azerbaijan might choose.

Aliyev’s administration has already made a choice, and we are already
heading down this road. You can see all this pressure on the press,
a very strict authoritarian way of rule and so on. In fact, we have
a very similar situation as in Russia."

As for other topics, economic issues were likely on today’s agenda —
including natural-gas prices. .

Moscow could threaten, as it has done to other neighboring states
of late, to raise considerably the price of its gas exports to
Azerbaijan. But the move might not provide much leverage in getting
Baku to avoid making overtures to the West. Azerbaijan uses only an
estimated 10.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, and only
1.5 billion of that is imported from Russia.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress