TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH EU FACE DEEPER STRAINS
By Yigal Schleifer | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
Christian Science Monitor, MA
Nov 9 2006
A European Union progress report is the most definitive sign yet of
a possible ‘train crash.’
ISTANBUL, TURKEY – It’s no secret that Turkey’s recent engagement with
the European Union has not boded well for a happy marriage between
the Muslim majority country and its Western neighbors.
EU diplomats have been warning for months of an impending "train
crash" in the membership negotiations with Turkey. The country’s
stalling political reform process, dozens of court cases threatening
free speech, and Ankara’s continuing refusal to open up its airports
and harbors to vessels from EU member Cyprus have raised concern in
European capitals.
But the release Wednesday of an EU progress report sharply criticizing
Turkey’s reform slowdown and threatening unspecified consequences
if it doesn’t open its ports to Cyprus by mid-December is the most
definitive signal yet of a further deterioration in Turkish-European
relations, observers say.
"The report represents a very important point, politically, as the
trains are heading towards a crash," says Kirsty Hughes, a London-based
European affairs analyst.
While both sides appear to remain committed to ongoing negotiations,
any eventual fallout could have significant implications not only for
Turkey and the EU but the broader region as well. As the Turkish public
becomes increasingly opposed to EU membership, analysts are warning
that such a turn could hurt the democratization process under way in
Turkey and reduce Europe’s prospects for developing better relations
with other Middle Eastern countries.
"Only with Turkey as a member can the EU be a player in the Middle
East. Without Turkey, it has no say, no leverage, in Middle East
issues," says Soner Cagaptay, a researcher at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy.
At a summit next month, the 25-member body is expected to agree to
freeze its negotiations with Turkey in part, if not entirely. German
chancellor Andrea Merkel has already issued a stern warning, telling
a German newspaper that if Ankara refuses to open up its ports to
Cypriot trade – something it has promised to do as part of the deal
to begin the negotiations – "the EU accession talks cannot continue
in this fashion."
But diplomats and analysts in Turkey are not optimistic about the
prospects of Ankara breaking out of its reform slump anytime soon. A
wave of anti-Western nationalism has been washing over Turkey, fueled
by a perception that the EU has been one-sided on the Cyprus issue and
by European moves on the Armenian issue, such as a recent law passed by
the lower house of the French parliament that makes it a crime to deny
that the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottomans were a genocide.
According to a June poll by the Pew Research Center, Turkish support
for the EU has fallen to 35 percent, down from almost 80 percent
three years ago.
With Turkey’s parliamentary elections a year away, observers here
believe that little progress will happen on the EU front as political
parties try to play up their nationalist credentials and distance
themselves from the currently unpopular membership talks.
"The public sees the EU on many issues as a threat to the unitary
state. Today it is a dividing issue," says Suat Kiniklioglu, executive
director of the German Marshall Fund’s Turkey office.
"Certainly the military and the secularists have turned against the
EU and for them a negative [EU progress] report would be welcomed,
since it would mean a slowdown in the negotiations."
There have been suggestions that Turkey’s government, run by the
Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party, might lead Turkey toward
a closer alliance with the Islamic world. But Ioannis Grigoriadis, a
professor of political science at Istanbul’s Isik University, says that
Turkey’s growing nationalism is looking inward rather than eastward.
"It could end up with a Turkey that is very introverted and
self-reliant," he says.
A distancing from the EU, says Mr. Grigoriadis, could ultimately
hurt the process of democratization in Turkey. "The EU acts as both
an anchor and as a trigger, on the one hand pushing for change from
the outside, but also protecting the steps already made," he says.
It could also complicate Europe’s efforts to integrate its growing
Muslim community.
"For [Europe’s Muslims], this is a test of whether they are European.
They are the people who are following this very closely," Mr. Cagaptay
says.
Despite the criticism from Brussels and the nationalist mood in Turkey,
there are indications that both sides are working to reach some sort of
compromise before the upcoming EU summit. Turkish prime minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan recently expressed a willingness to amend Article 301,
a controversial law limiting free speech, and there are also efforts
to work out an interim deal on the Cyprus issue.
"I think all parties will try until the last moment to prevent this
train crash," says Joost Lagendijk, who heads the European Parliament
delegation to the joint EU-Turkey parliamentary committee. "A real
crisis would be if both parties would be looking for a way out [of
the negotiations], and I don’t think that’s the case right now."
Some observers are also suggesting that, beyond compromise, what may
also be needed is a change in the way the EU approaches Turkey. Kemal
Dervis, Turkey’s former economy minister and the current head of the
United Nations Development Programme, recently said that the EU’s
constant pressure for reform will only continue to alienate Turks.
Isik University’s Grigoriadis say that the EU needs to reel Turkey in
slowly. "You can’t pull the line too tight, or it will break," he says.