WHAT ELSE CAN THEY DO BESIDES BEGGING?
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir, Armenia
Nov 9 2006
The International Monetary Fund expressed worry on November 7 about
the share of the government in the oil and gas sector in Russia. The
worry is clear considering that the Russian government is presently
conducting a policy of reducing foreign ownership in the oil and gas
sector and keep the sector under the control of the Kremlin. This wish
is natural, and the reaction of the IMF is natural, which represents
the interests of the Western companies and governments, which are
reluctant to let the Russian oil and gas wealth go.
In the long run, in the geopolitical context and with regard to Armenia
this question has an indirect relation. But there are nuances in this
story, which are directly related to Armenia. The same International
Monetary Fund does not express worry about the reality that the energy
sector of Armenia is taken over by the Russian government. Not an
IMF official, let alone its representatives to Armenia expressed
worry about the actions of our government. If the IMF is so worried
about the growing government share in the energy sector of Russia,
how about an almost 100 percent share of the same Russian government
in the energy sector of another country, even though this country is
referred to as a strategic partner.
On the other hand, there is nothing surprising that no Western
organization pays attention to this reality in Armenia. Simply
they think that this attention is unnecessary because the Armenian
government officials state that there is nothing dangerous about the
dominance of another country in the energy sector. For instance, the
minister of defense stated that the worries that are still expressed
in Armenia are the result of anti-Russian ideas. For the government
officials of Armenia it is difficult to imagine that these worries may
stem from objective judgment. And this judgment prompts that handing
the energy capacities of the country to Russia is the same as giving
the switch of Armenia to Russia, and deprive the country of choice.
The Armenian government might be right when it relates the country’s
security to Russia. It might be right when it considers Russia as
our only friend. But when we give our energy sector to the Russians,
it means we do not want to have other possibilities of security and
other friends, or interests. Serge Sargsyan says there is no case
when Russia used its influence for political pressure. Serge Sargsyan
may be right. But can he guarantee that if tomorrow the interests
of Armenia suddenly require something that is against the will of
Russia, the Russians will not use their energy levers. Can anyone in
Armenia in charge of the country’s security guarantee this? Simply
there has been no necessity so far because the Armenian government is
begging Putin to report to him. Why should Russia use its levers? Why
should it do if the minister of energy of Armenia states that even
if the Russians wish to give up the management of the nuclear plant
earlier, the Armenian side will ask them to stay. And what else can
the Armenians do besides begging the Russians to stay? Otherwise,
the Russians will stay by force, and will not invite to Moscow for a
report but somewhere in the region of Krasnodar, especially that the
president and the government officials of Armenia have considerable
experience of work with the governors of Russia.