WHAT’S SAAKASHVILI GOT TO DO WITH IT?
by Pavel Zarifullin
Translated by Elena Leonova
Agency WPS
Source: Russkii Kurier, November 6, 2006, p. 7
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
November 9, 2006 Thursday
The Caucasus becomes a field for Russian-US confrontation
Russia, the United States, and the geopolitical chessboard of Eurasia;
For some people, the break-up of the Soviet Union was like a physical
pain. These days, Russia – as a living, youthful organism – wants
to breathe deep, arrange itself comfortably, regain what belongs to
it. Well, why not?
BODY:
South Ossetia will hold an independence referendum on November 12. A
similar referendum took place 15 years ago. Back then, the South
Ossetians voted in favor of independence. They’ll vote the same way
now; no doubt of that.
For some people, the break-up of the Soviet Union was like a physical
pain. These days, Russia – as a living, youthful organism – wants to
breathe deep, arrange itself comfortably, regain what belongs to it.
Well, why not?
Look at Turkey, for example. It came into existence as a geopolitical
formation in the course of Kemal Ataturk’s reforms. It feels naturally
comfortable within certain borders. Besides its state borders, there
is also Northern Cyprus, a de facto part of Turkey.
Until recently, the Turks themselves and everyone else accepted this
"living" Turkey. These days, some are seeking to "squeeze" Turkey.
Through various political machinations, they want to take Northern
Cyprus away from Turkey and draw it into the European Union; they want
to take away south-eastern Turkey – Turkish Kurdistan – in favor of
the pro-American Iraqi Kurdistan, de facto established already.
Armenia hasn’t expressed any territorial claims as yet, but current
developments are quite enough for the Turks. The Turkish leadership
– the military in power – is sounding the alarm. It has started
seeking strategic partners in the east, working on relations with
Russia and China. There is talk of Turkey joining the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, or even withdrawing from NATO. In recent
years, Turkey has stopped providing any real support to Turkic
nationalist organizations in Russia and China – organizations
originally established by Turkish and American intelligence agencies
for specific purposes.
Why is Turkey doing all this? Because the West is trying to take
away what the Turks see as inalienably theirs. They know that if
they surrender Northern Cyprus, the entire complex Turkish system
established by Kemal Ataturk will crumble.
And Turkey’s neighbors would ask for more: Syria wanting Arab Antakya,
Bulgaria and Greece wanting Edirne, the Armenians wanting Kars,
Trabzon, and Van. Soon there would be nothing left of Turkey.
Now, based on Turkey’s experience, let’s look at the current situation
in Georgia, South Ossetia, and the Russian Federation.
Russia is recovering from the knockout blow dealt by perestroika,
and as it wakes up, it’s naturally asking where it is (the search for
a national ideology) and exactly what it is in geographical terms (a
map showing what is or is not part of Russia). De facto, South Ossetia
and Abkhazia have been part of Russia for 15 years, whatever anyone
might say. De facto, Georgia is not part of Russia. That’s understood.
But the point is that besides Russia, there is also a power which
is even stronger (thus far): the United States, which is building an
empire of its own on the Eurasian continent – an empire known as the
Greater Middle East. And the United States has its own notions and its
own map. That map shows a United Kurdistan, for example, and Georgia
– including South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Two maps are superimposed;
two giant states are gradually returning to Cold War policies; two
empires are butting heads in the Caucasus for "Lebensraum," each of
them pulling Caspian Sea oil towards itself via its pipelines.
That is the grim truth, in contrast to the fairy tales told to the
media by official Foreign Ministry spokespersons or courtier political
consultants from the Kremlin and the Cabinet. Eurasia has long since
become a giant chessboard: Moscow moves a piece called Yanukovych,
America responds by moving Saakashvili, the Kremlin surrenders Adjaria,
America plays Limonov.
According to the logic of this game of civilizations, the people
of South Ossetia will vote for independence in their referendum –
just as the people of Montenegro did, according to the logic of a
similar game. America took Montenegro, although it had no right to
it; but Russia will take what belongs to it by right – South Ossetia,
Abkhazia, Trans-Dniester (Pridnestrovie), and later on, perhaps, most
of Ukraine. And there’s no need to fear that this will complicate
relations with the West. The Cold War is already underway. And
Saakashvili is completely beside the point here. On the geopolitical
chessboard, he’s nothing but a pawn; he may be protected, or he may
be sacrificed.