The Economist
November 11, 2006
U.S. Edition
Harry Potter revived; The Dutch election
Ahead of the November 22nd poll
An unexpected turnaround in the fortunes of Jan Peter Balkenende
A FEW months ago Dutch voters seemed ready to dump their centre-right
government in the election on November 22nd. Worries over immigration
and Islam, a sluggish economy and a spate of unpopular reforms led to
a big Labour win in local elections in March. The Labour leader,
Wouter Bos, seemed destined to be prime minister. Yet Jan Peter
Balkenende’s Christian Democrats now lead in the polls. With their
VVD (Liberal) partner, they are now predicted to be just shy of a
majority.
Part of the explanation for the turnaround is an improvement in the
economy. Growth has picked up sharply, to 2.8% this year; disposable
incomes have risen; and the labour market is lively again, with
unemployment down to only 5.6%. More voters are coming to see that
this reflects not just a broader European recovery, but also, in
part, the government’s reforms.
Over the past four years, the government of Mr Balkenende, an
ex-professor nicknamed Harry Potter, has reshaped and trimmed the
generous welfare state. It has scrapped incentives for early
retirement, reduced welfare benefits and introduced more competition
in health care. The reforms may have been aimed mainly at putting the
Dutch fiscal house in order, but they have helped the economy as
well.
Another explanation for the Christian Democrats’ revival is Labour’s
self-inflicted wounds. Mr Bos kicked off his campaign with a promise
to resolve a looming pensions crisis by imposing higher taxes on
richer pensioners. After an outcry, including from his own
backbenchers, Mr Bos changed his plan, lowering the tax rate and
increasing the pension bracket to be taxed. "Flexibility", Mr Bos
dubbed it, but it was all the government needed to term him an
untrustworthy opportunist.
Mr Bos has also lost immigrant votes by following the lead of the
Christian Democrats in removing from his party list any ethnic
Turkish candidates who denied the Armenian genocide of 1915. The
Christian Democrats, as champions of the white middle-class, could
afford to take such a stand. But Labour has tried hard to gain
support among immigrants at a time of growing anti-immigrant feeling
after the 2004 murder by a Muslim fanatic of Theo van Gogh, a
film-maker who was rude about Islam. Turkish activists are now
campaigning for the tiny D66party, which walked out of Mr
Balkenende’s coalition in the summer, triggering the election.
Strangely, perhaps, immigration and Islam – the issues that have
dominated Dutch political life ever since 2002, when the populist Pim
Fortuyn was assassinated – have been conspicuously absent from the
election debate. This is not to say that anti-immigrant sentiment has
disappeared. On the contrary, it has become mainstream: all parties
now advocate stricter curbs on immigration and demand better
integration. "Immigration politics has been a great success:
immigration has diminished," says Mark Rutte, leader of the VVD. His
party is best placed to pick up anti-immigrant votes. Rita Verdonk,
the abrasive immigration minister, is a leading VVD light (indeed,
she stood against Mr Rutte for the party leadership).
The election may not produce a quick result. Dutch governments are
coalitions, and the real battle often starts only once the votes are
in. The Christian Democrats and the VVD say they want to stay
together after the election. They may have to lure in a small,
fast-growing Calvinist party, the Christian Union, but its
relationship with the VVD is testy. A coalition between Labour and
the Christian Democrats is also possible. Mr Bos has even hinted that
he might seek an all-left majority with the Greens and the
Socialists.
After a turbulent four years, including not just two political
murders but a string of slightly different governments and the
voters’ rejection of the European Union constitution, the Dutch would
like a period of calm. That may boost their Harry Potter – but only if
there are no more scary confrontations with dark forces.