The Business Times, Singapore
November 10, 2006 Friday
Odds stacked against Turkey joining EU
Shada Islam, Brussels Correspondent
IT’S crunch time for relations between Turkey and the European Union
(EU). Ankara opened membership talks with the EU last year but the
past few months have seen a rise in tension between the two sides
over an array of issues, including Turkey’s troubled relationship
with Cyprus.
The mood has soured. In the latest blow, the European Commission
threatened to recommend freezing entry talks unless Turkey opens its
ports and airports to EU member Cyprus by mid-December.
The outlook is not good. Tempers are fraying on both sides. Leading
EU officials have warned Ankara repeatedly in recent months to speed
up political reforms or face a ‘train crash’ which could fatally
derail the 12-month-old membership talks.
Turkish leaders, on their part, are accusing the Europeans of being
impatient, making excessive demands and constantly moving the goal
posts. Many have warned that the EU stance – with many politicians in
Europe openly opposing Turkish accession to the EU – is turning
ordinary Turks against EU entry.
The current difficulties centre on Ankara’s slow progress in
reforming its political structures. But many in Europe continue to
insist that Turkey as a Muslim nation – albeit with a secular
Constitution – has no place within a largely Christian club.
The suspicion that religion, rather than politics, is the key
obstacle to Ankara’s EU membership bid also persists in Turkey and
other countries in the Muslim world. Officials in Brussels insist,
however, that religion is not the issue. With Turkey under EU
pressure to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels,
Ankara argues that the EU must first agree to end the economic
isolation of the poor, northern Turkish part of the divided island of
Cyprus.
After months of sterile argument, Finland as the current EU
president, has started work on a plan under which the EU would end
its current economic boycott of Turkish Cypriots in exchange for a
commitment by Turkey to allow Greek Cypriot vessels to access its
harbours. The Finnish initiative has won praise from Turkish Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul but reaction from Greek Cypriot President
Tassos Papadopoulos has been less supportive.
A key problem for Turkey is that apart from Britain, it has few
friends in Europe. Most other countries, including heavyweights
France and Germany, remain lukewarm on Turkey’s EU entry, with many
politicians in both countries saying Ankara should be offered a
‘special relationship’ instead of membership. Spotlighting increasing
French hostility towards Turkish accession, the French Parliament
last month passed a law declaring that anyone who denies that the
mass murder of Armenians in eastern Turkey in 1915-1917 was genocide
will face a year in prison.
EU commissioner for enlargement Olli Rehn has cautioned European
politicians against talking tough on Turkey’s membership.
‘This weakens our credibility and the strength of the reforms in
Turkey, and through this we shoot ourselves in the foot,’ Mr Rehn
said recently. ‘It is much better to be fair but firm. Fair in
keeping our word and commitments in terms of Turkey’s membership
goal, but meantime firmly demanding reforms and fulfilment of the
membership criteria,’ he said.
Few are listening, however. As a result, Turkey-EU relations face an
uncertain future. The speculation in Brussels is that faced with the
commission’s damning assessment of Ankara’s failure to meet many of
the EU’s requirements, the bloc’s governments will decide to suspend
current accession negotiations. While Islam’s role in curbing EU
enthusiasm for Turkey cannot be ruled out, it is also true that most
EU governments are suffering from a bad case of ‘enlargement
fatigue’.
>From January next year, Romania and Bulgaria will be full-fledged EU
members. Negotiations are also under way with Croatia while Macedonia
has been acknowledged as a future member. Further down the road, all
western Balkan states are waiting to join – and the queue may one day
also include Ukraine and Georgia. New applicants therefore face tough
tests ahead. With the mood definitely not expansion-friendly, EU
policymakers are cautioning that more members will only be allowed
into the bloc if the EU can ‘absorb’ newcomers without undergoing
financial and institutional strain.
Turkey’s only hope is that at least some thoughtful EU leaders
attending an EU summit in December will argue that a decision to
suspend Ankara’s accession talks will send a grim message to
reformists in Turkey.
To make an even more compelling case, they must also argue that a
freeze in EU relations with Turkey will further strain Europe’s
already difficult ties with other Islamic countries.
And signal worldwide that the EU is closed to membership of Muslim
nations.r
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
