ANALYSIS: 99-PERCENT VOTE NOT QUITE SO CLEAR-CUT (SOUTH OSSETIA)
By Tony Halpin of The Times

The Times, UK
Nov 13 2006

The Times Moscow Correspondent examines the implications of the South
Ossetian vote for independence from Georgia

The 99-per cent vote in favour of independence for South Ossetia,
almost Soviet in the scale of its declared certainty, deepens the
bitter rift in relations between Georgia and Russia.

The breakaway region of Georgia openly declares that independence
is only a stepping stone to unification with Russia, an ambition
the Kremlin has quietly encouraged by issuing passports to South
Ossetian residents.

Moscow says that the popular mood reflected in the vote should be
respected, even if it will not break ranks with the international
community by recognising the result of the referendum.

However, the poll of 55,000 eligible voters was not as clear-cut as
South Ossetia’s pro-Moscow leadership would have the world believe.

Villages inhabited by 14,000 ethnic Georgians were effectively
denied the vote because only those with South Ossetian passports
could participate.

They want to restore ties with Georgia, severed after a separatist
war in 1992. Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili accuses Moscow
of trying to annexe part of his country and has vowed to reclaim
South Ossetia.

South Ossetia is one of several so-called "frozen conflicts" in the
former Soviet Union whose fate now appears tied up in a much larger
game of diplomatic chess over Kosovo. The UN protectorate is expected
to be offered independence from Serbia when a deadline for settling
its status expires next month.

Russia supports its Slav ally Serbia in opposing independence.

President Putin warned in September that Russia would veto any
solution that treated Kosovo differently from South Ossetia and
Georgia’s other breakaway region of Abkhazia.

Yesterday’s vote strengthens Russia’s case by underlining the UN’s
difficulty in giving precedence to the principle of self-determination
over the territorial integrity of member states.

Similar disputes are simmering in Moldova, where the pro-Moscow
Transdniester region held an independence referendum last month,
and in Nagorno-Karabakh, where the ethnic Armenian majority have
asserted their independence from Azerbaijan.

South Ossetia’s referendum comes as relations between Georgia and
Russia are already at their lowest ebb since the break-up of the
Soviet Union. Moscow has cut all transport links, imposed a trade
embargo, and refused to issue any new visas to Georgians after Tbilisi
arrested, then expelled, four Russian military officers as alleged
spies in September.