Turkey and Europe

Pulling the rug out from under?

Nov 9th 2006 | ANKARA AND ISTANBUL
>From The Economist print edition

Another European Commission report, another crisis in the European Union’s
relations with Turkey

"THE reform demands of the great powers never end." So wrote Abulhamid II, a
sultan who ruled the Ottoman empire in its dying days. This belief, shared
by millions of citizens of modern Turkey, will have been strengthened by the
European Commission’s latest progress report on Turkey’s membership,
unveiled in Brussels on November 8th.

The document may not lead instantly to a "train wreck", the term coined by
the European Union’s enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn, for a decision to
suspend EU membership talks with Turkey. But it leaves the threat on the
table unless Turkey meets EU demands to open its ports and airports to
Greek-Cypriot ships and aircraft by mid-December, when European leaders hold
a summit in Brussels.

Scrambling to avert a complete breach, Turkey’s moderate Islamist prime
minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hinted on November 6th that he might amend
(but not scrap) the infamous article 301 of the penal code that has allowed
the prosecution of scores of Turkish academics and writers on charges of
"insulting Turkishess". The law was harshly criticised in the commission’s
report, as was continued repression of non-Muslim minorities and Kurds, and
inadequate civilian control over meddlesome generals. Indeed, praise for
Turkey’s broader reforms was noticeable chiefly by its absence.

Despite the looming crunch in December there are few signs that Mr Erdogan
will budge on Cyprus. Even as the report was being published, he repeated
that, so long as the economic isolation of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus
continues, there can be no change in Turkish policy. He added that a
solution to Cyprus could be reached only through United Nations mediation.
This seems to brush aside last-ditch attempts by Finland, which currently
holds the EU presidency, to forge a compromise deal before the summit.

Such a hardline stance provides fodder for Turkey’s detractors. Chief among
these is France, whose foreign minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, told the
French parliament this week that the timetable for Turkey’s membership talks
should be "rethought" unless it recognised Cyprus by the end of the year.
The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, also declared that, if Turkey refused
to shift on Cyprus, the situation would be "very, very serious".

So are Turkey’s hopes of becoming the EU’s first mainly Muslim member buried
for good? Turkish and European officials have long acknowledged that the
negotiations may never lead to actual membership. But both sides have
stressed the importance of maintaining the process, as the best way of
fortifying Turkey’s wobbly democracy, keeping it on the path of reform and
anchoring it firmly to the West.

Yet these goals are starting to look shaky. Some pundits say that the
membership talks, launched a year ago, have in effect ground to a halt
already. Only one of the 33 "chapters" that Turkey must negotiate with the
EU (on science and technology) has been closed. Turkish intransigence over
Cyprus could prompt the Greek-Cypriots to wield their veto at any moment to
block talks on other chapters.

Some diplomats in Ankara blithely play down the latest crisis as a mere
"time out" that may help European leaders to win over domestic public
opinion, which is hostile to Turkish membership, and also let Mr Erdogan
court nationalist votes ahead of a parliamentary election next November.
Once the election is out of the way, the argument runs, a new government
will pick up the EU baton once again. Yet this is a risky strategy.

The prickly nationalism that has engulfed Turkey has sapped support for EU
membership. One poll suggests that it is down to a low of 32%, compared with
67% two years ago. At the same time, damping the hopes of 14m Turkish Kurds
for a better deal as citizens of an EU member might lead some to shift their
gaze longingly over the south-eastern border. There, under American
protection, the Iraqi Kurds have achieved near-independence, much to the
annoyance of Turkey. A pause in the EU process might also tempt Turkey’s
generals to try to reclaim the power they have lost in a wave of EU-inspired
reforms. And it could threaten the economic growth of recent years.

So long as Mr Erdogan displays the right kind of leadership, such doomsday
scenarios can still be avoided. Encouragingly, he declared this week that,
despite the ructions over Cyprus, his government remained committed to full
membership of the EU. But he is also considering his own future, and
especially whether to run for president when the incumbent, Ahmet Necdet
Sezer, retires in May. The lure of the country’s top post may prove
irresistible to a man whose first job as a teenager was selling stale buns
to help his family get by.

General Yasar Buyukanit, the hawkish chief of the general staff, and most
pro-secularists among Turkey’s business elite think this is a dreadful idea.
For them the presidency is the last secular check on Mr Erdogan and his
fellow Islamists in the ruling AK party. Upsetting this delicate balance
could, they fear, spell an end to Ataturk’s secular republic.

Such fears are surely exaggerated. But even some of Mr Erdogan’s closest
allies agree that the country would be better served by a more neutral
figure, whose spouse does not wear the Islamic headscarf. This would allow
the AK party to win re-election in November, keep the generals at bay and
let Mr Erdogan press ahead with his reforms. He would also need to avoid
pre-electoral populism and stick with the IMF’s austerity programme.

Speculation that, if spurned by Europe, Turkey would embrace the likes of
Iran and Russia is so far proving wrong. Indeed, Mr Erdogan and the top
brass are competing to repair Turkey’s strategic relationship with its
strongest ally, America. General Buyukanit is expected to travel to
Washington in February, where he will press the Americans to act against
separatist PKK Kurdish guerrillas based in northern Iraq. America’s refusal
to drive out the rebels, who have been fighting the Turkish army for more
than two decades, is the biggest source of anti-American feeling in Turkey.

It remains unclear whether the Bush administration can respond positively to
such demands, though it may be easier with a new defence secretary in place
of Donald Rumsfeld. What is certain is that America will continue to lobby
for Turkey’s EU membership. American pressure has played a crucial role in
keeping Turkey’s EU aspirations on track. It may prove just as necessary in
future.