PM BALKENENDE SEEN AS FAVOURITE IN DUTCH ELECTION
by Frederic Bichon

Agence France Presse — English
November 19, 2006 Sunday 8:55 AM GMT
The Hague

The Netherlands will vote Wednesday in parliamentary elections after
a brief campaign that focused on the battle between sitting Christian
Democrat Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, popular for his economic
successes, and labour leader Wouter Bos.

Public debate in the Netherlands has focussed on immigration and
integration for the last four years following the 2002 murder of
populist leader Pim Fortuyn and the killing of filmmaker Theo van
Gogh by a Muslim radical in 2004.

But these issues were notably absent from the campaign for Wednesday’s
poll, even with the Dutch cabinet’s announcement on Friday of a bill —
denounced by Muslims as ill conceived and an infringement of religious
freedoms — banning face veils in public and semi-public places on
"security" grounds.

The major parties have all reached a consensus on the hardline policies
of Immigration Minister Rita Verdonk, of the rightwing liberal VVD,
and the far-right movement is marginalized.

Another non-issue is international politics, including Europe, despite
the fact that the Netherlands last year voted overwhelmingly against
the EU draft constitution.

Over 61 percent of Dutch voters said ‘no’ to the constitution while
nearly all major political parties had lobbied for a ‘yes’.

A recent poll showed that if the vote were held again today, 64
percent would reject it again.

On Wednesday some 12 million voters will chose 150 members for the
parliament. After the elections the party with the most seats will try
to cobble together a ruling coalition as the system of proportional
representation makes it virtually impossible for one party to get an
absolute majority.

There will be only one round of voting with 24 parties participating.

Polls show that the Christian Democrat CDA and the PvdA labour party
could get enough votes to form a grand coalition together, as they
have done frequently in the post-war Netherlands.

The CDA party of Balkenende, who has been at the head of three
successive governments since 2002, looks set to remain the biggest
party, according to the polls. Its biggest rival the PvdA has seen
its popularity wane after initial success in local elections earlier
this year. However, the polls also indicate that up to one third of
the electorate is still undecided.

Another unknown will be how the tiny far-left Socialist Party (SP)
will do since some surveys now predict it could become the third
largest party. After four years of far-reaching social reforms the SP
has attracted a lot of protest votes. In the 2003 elections the SP was
also projected to make major inroads but that failed to materialize.

Balkenende, 50, with a safe Calvinist middle-class image whose side
parting and round glasses have earned him the nickname Harry Potter,
has led the country in a period marked by economic recession and
austerity measures.

While the reforms have seen his popularity-rating plummet in the past,
they are now credited with the economic turnaround.

The centre-right government largely privatised health care, the
energy and transport sectors and the economic markers are good: 5.2
percent unemployment from July to October, a predicted growth of 3.5
percent and a public deficit of 0.1 percent of GDP this year with a
tiny budget surplus expected next year.

Balkenende’s lack of charisma and natural authority, which his critics
blame for the fall of his government in June following a controversy
over the immigration minister, is actually an asset in a country that
values normalcy above all.

Compared to his 43-year-old rival Bos, a former Shell executive who
was briefly deputy finance minister from 2000 to 2002, Balkenende
has more government experience and can rest assured that since 1972
all incumbent prime ministers have been re-elected.

On top of that Bos has his own image problem: his good looks, media
savvy and promises to modernise the labour party helped his party
make historical gains in the 2003 elections but now he is widely seen
as slick.

His critics, including some within his own party, say Bos is
flip-flopping: in a recent example the PvdA removed two candidates
of Turkish origin from their list because they refused to acknowledge
the Armenian genocide but later Bos himself said genocide should not
be used to describe the World War I massacre.

This was seen as a move to try and win back voters of immigrant origin
whose votes account for at least five seats in parliament.

The first estimates based on exit polls are expected at 2000 GMT and
the first partial results will come an hour later.