A "COLD WAR" BETWEEN NATO MEMBERS
by Petr Iskenderov, Victor Volodin
Source: Vremya Novostey, November 17, 2006, p. 5
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 20, 2006 Monday
Is The Conflict Between Turkey And France Beneficial For Russia?;
Like Turkish authorities had promised, resolution of the lower house
of the French parliament on criminal liability in France for denial of
genocide of Armenians punished by a year of imprisonment and penalty
of 45,000 euros did not remain without consequences.
Like Turkish authorities had promised, resolution of the lower house
of the French parliament on criminal liability in France for denial
of genocide of Armenians punished by a year of imprisonment and
penalty of 45,000 euros did not remain without consequences. General
Ilker Basbug, commander of the ground forces and the second person
in the military hierarchy of Turkey, reported that his country would
freeze all military relations with France saying that "relations with
France in the military field are suspended" and "mutual visits on a
high level are abolished." Turkey refuses to consider the death of
Armenians during World War I to be genocide saying that the matter
is about events of wartime when the number of killed Turks was not
less than the number of Armenians. Turkey denies the figure of 1.5
million killed Armenians speaking only about 300,000.
Decision of Turkey will deal a blow on development of relations with
France. Along with Germany and the US, France is the leading military
partner of Turkey.
The Turkish-French conflict promises benefits to Russia. Major General
Alexander Vladimirov, comments, "Turkey stopped military technological
cooperation with a NATO member state and Russia may occupy the vacant
spot. Moreover so that the issue of Russian armament supply to Turkey,
for instance, supply of tanks, has already been considered."
Alexei Arbatov, correspondent member of the Russian Academy of
Sciences, does not quite agree with Vladimirov. Arbatov remarks,
"We do not need to be glad about weakening positions of NATO due to
stopping military technological cooperation by Ankara with France. Of
the two evils Russia will receive the bigger one. Membership of
Turkey in NATO (there are 26 countries there now) is unpleasant for
us but its breakup with NATO may happen in circumstances that will
result in unpleasant consequences for Russia." Arbatov predicts,
"The process of cooling down relations between Turkey and NATO began
a long time ago. In a more distant future NATO will most likely lose
Turkey. Withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and beginning of a
civil war there between Kurds and Arabs, may serve as a precondition
for this. Turkey is afraid that struggle for independence in Kurdistan
will lead to beginning of a civil war in Turkey. If this happens a
radical Islamic government may ascend to power in Turkey."
In this case "influence of the militant Turkish Islamic radicalism
will be spread to the entire Caucasian region including the North
Caucasus where Islamic structures have been established with assistance
of Turkey."
The candidacy of Turkey for entrance in the European Union encounters
strong resistance in France. However, among the reasons the French
party names not the genocide of Armenians but contemporary problems.
In its recently published report the European Commission blames
Turkey for slowdown of reforms, inability to guarantee main rights
and liberties to its citizens and to settle relations with Cyprus. In
the latter aspect Paris acts as one of the main opponents of Ankara.
Arbatov presumes that "on the part of France the matter of genocide
of Armenian people was initiated as an obstacle for entrance of Turkey
into the European Union because the response reaction was predictable."
