ARIS KAZINYAN: NATO IS MODELING THE SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Aris Kasinyan, expert of Caucasus Analytical Center

Regnum, Russia
Nov 22 2006

The peculiarity of the national security programs of the
internationally recognized South Caucasian states is that all of
them are being developed in a region that does not yet have a final
political map due to a number of unresolved internal conflicts. This
peculiarity sets objective prerequisites for considering these
developing outlines as "transitional strategies." At the same time,
the internal conflicts of the region are just a kind of superstructure
– pending early reconstruction – while the basis is quite specific
theses and definitions oriented for a much longer prospect.

That’s exactly why the programs are so similar. If we compare the
content and the emphases of the programs – at least, what a number of
relevant reports and official statements say – we will see that, except
for the pivotal chapters concerning the conflicts (Nagorno-Karabakh,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia) and the positions of each of the states to
their settlement, the national security concepts of Yerevan, Tbilisi
and Baku are much alike. In fact, all of them are being drafted in
the framework of NATO partnership – they even have similar names.

Particularly, Georgia’s National Security Concept and National
Defense Strategy were drafted in the framework of the country’s IPAP
with NATO in 2004-2005. The National Security Concept consists of 6
chapters concerning fundamental national values, national interests,
threats, risks and challenges, key directions of foreign and domestic
policies. The challenges are as follows:

– encroachment on territorial integrity;

– enlargement of conflicts in neighboring countries;

– military intervention;

– international terrorism;

– contraband;

– corruption;

– social and energy challenges.

The chapter about the key directions of the foreign policy says that
Georgia seeks to integrate into NATO and that the country’s strategic
partners are the US, Ukraine, Turkey and the EU.

IPAP for Azerbaijan suggests developing a Military Doctrine and related
documents, bringing the military education system into compliance with
the NATO standards, training specialists and drafting documents for
transparent budgeting, forming a mobile military unit, enlarging the
PfP Training Center, modernizing the navy, improving an air aerodrome
in line with the NATO standards, and so on. After the Sept 2006 visit
of US Commander in Europe William Ward, Azerbaijan specified some of
its plans for reforming its army:

– restructuring the army, the Defense Ministry and the General Staff;

– creating a NATO-standard modern command and control system;

– adopting Military Doctrine and National Security Concept;

– improving military laws and regulations and harmonizing them with
modern standards;

– replacing Soviet-type military equipment by modern NATO-standard
arms;

– implementing in Azerbaijan a program similar to the Train and Equip
program in Georgia.

It should be noted that, as compared with the other two South Caucasian
states, Armenia is much more transparent in developing its National
Security Strategy and its methodology.

Since proclaiming independence Armenia has repeatedly specified
its national security priorities but has never compiled them into
a specific political document. In the spring 2005 Armenia approved
its IPAP with NATO. The first point of the plan says that, jointly
with NATO, Armenia should develop a National Security Strategy and
a Military Doctrine. This very plan may become a basis for military
reforms in Armenia till 2015. The draft doctrine will be ready in 2007:
it will contain the key military ideological principles formed in
cooperation with NATO and the guiding vectors of Armenia’s long-term
development.

"By 2015 Armenia will have a full-value system of military planning
and budgetary policy," Armenian Deputy DM Artur Aghabekyan said during
the Mar 2006 Starlink seminar in Yerevan. He said that, in order carry
out the program for reforming and rationalizing the system of military
budgeting and planning, Armenia should train special personnel in
2006-2007 in cooperation with NATO and its member-states. Aghabekyan
said that under the program they will examine various systems of
planning and budgeting. The defense budget will be revised and
redistributed but its size will be left unchanged – 3% of GDP.

"Armenia’s participation in IPAP will pave the way for the country’s
strategic cooperation with the alliance," the chairman of the
Commission on Defense, National Security and Internal Affairs of
the Armenian Parliament, the vice chairman of then-coalition Orinats
Yerkir party Mher Shahgeldyan said last summer.

Earlier, Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Artur Aghabekyan presented
the IPAP reforms and the mechanisms of cooperation with NATO towards
implementing these reforms. They are as follows:

– to periodically consult with NATO on regional security;

– to develop a military doctrine;

– to improve defense and budget planning;

– to ensure operational inter-action with NATO forces;

– to improve military education;

– to introduce automated control system in the army;

– to develop liaison with NATO;

– to develop defense science;

– to improve personnel management system;

– to raise public involvement in defense problems;

– to improve democratic control mechanisms;

– to inform the public;

– to ensure inter-department cooperation on the spheres related to
defense and anti-terror activities;

– to improve relevant legislation and to solve ecological tasks.

Aghabekyan also said that the pivot of the reforms will be Security
Strategy to be discussed by the public and considered by the parliament
2007.

"If the strategy is approved by the Parliament, it will become a basis
for the country’s military doctrine," Aghabekyan said. He noted that
IPAP allows to reform the defense system gradually and under unresolved
conflicts. Aghabekyan said that, due to the IPAP reforms, in 2015
Armenia will have an army of XXI, able to face modern challenges, to
fully ensure the country’s security and to take part in the resolution
of intra-regional and extra-regional conflicts. The reforms will be
"realistic, gradual, flexible and deep and democratic" in line with
the general government system reforms.

It should be noted that Armenian National Security Secretary and
Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan met with NATO Secretary General Jaap
de Hoop Scheffer in Brussels June 9-10 2005 and, on behalf of Armenian
President Robert Kocharyan, handed IPAP Presentation Document.

Concerning the last point of the reforms – "to solve ecological tasks,"
we would like to note that it was due to this very point that NATO
opened its representation in Armenia; despite the well-known statement
by Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Bayburdyan that "NATO is not
planning to open its representation in Armenia," the representation
was opened for "analyzing the radiation, chemical and biological
situation in Yerevan." When asked by a Novye Izvestia correspondent
in Jan 2006 "How can you explain the opening of NATO representation
in Yerevan? Ambassador of Armenia to Russia Armen Smbatyan said:
"Armenia’s multi-vector and complimentary foreign policy is aimed at
ensuring its national interests and is carried out in such a way as
to prevent the opposition of the interests of its partners."

"We have managed to work out a political document that will allow us
to ensure the stable development and the security of our state. It is
important that this document should cover the whole system of national
security," Armenian National Security Secretary and Defense Minister
Serzh Sargsyan said during the Nov 10 discussion of the Concept of the
National Security Strategy of Armenia by the Yerevan State University
Board. He said that for this purpose the Armenian Government had set up
a special inter-department commission, who had met seven times. "When
developing the concept, the commissioners consulted with US, NATO
and Russian experts, who gave a positive assessment of the document,"
Sargsyan said. He noted that the concept would also be discussed by
the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia on Nov 17 and submitted
to the Armenian Parliament on Nov 27.

Then, the document will be revised with due regard for the remarks
and proposals received and will be sent, first, to the President and,
then, to the Government for final approval.

At the same time, experts say that in general direction this document
is quite similar to its counterparts in Georgia and Azerbaijan mostly
because the initiators of this process – the US and NATO – consider
the region as a whole.

During the Istanbul NATO Summit as far back as 2004, the South
Caucasus was proclaimed as one of the priority zones. The basis of
NATO’s cooperation with the South Caucasian states is IPAP. It should
be noted that it was exactly in 2004 that the Armenian Prime Minister
decided to set up an inter-department commission for coordinating
the implementation of IPAP.

The IPAP with Georgia was adopted in 2003, with Azerbaijan in May 2005.

On Oct 6 2005 Yerevan hosted a three-day seminar "Security in the
South Caucasus." The event was held in the framework of the NATO
PA-Armenian Parliament Rose-Roth program.

Attending the seminar were representatives of NATO parliaments,
partner organizations, international organizations and Armenia’s state
structures. They discussed the following topics: "Nagorno-Karabakh
Conflict and the Role of the International Community in Its
Resolution," "Armenia and the South Caucasus: International Point of
View," "Defense Reforms in the South Caucasus," "Armenia: Internal
Situation."

Speaking at the opening of the seminar, Armenian FM Vardan Oskanyan
said: "NATO can play the key role in ensuring peace and security
in the region." He said that IPAP is a way to institutionalize the
Armenia-NATO cooperation and pointed out the following key points of
this cooperation:

– international fight with terrorism;

– armament control and nonproliferation;

– border security;

– operational inter-action with NATO;

– involvement in NATO operations.

Oskanyan said that complimentary mentality has resulted in a
multi-vector security system in Armenia – when the country cooperates
with the US, CSTO and NATO at one and the same time.

During the 61st Rose-Roth seminar "Security in the South Caucasus"
Armenian National Security Secretary and Defense Minister Serzh
Sargsyan made a report that became the basis of the National Security
Concept.

In order to have a stable security system, Armenia is getting
actively involved in different security systems. The country is
actively cooperating with both CSTO and NATO and is actively applying
different international military standards to its army. "Hence,
Armenia’s security is based on both the Armenian-Russian military
alliance (bilateral and within CSTO) and the cooperation with NATO
and the US. In cooperation with NATO Armenia is carrying out defense
reforms in the framework of the Partnership for Peace Planning and
Review Process and Individual Partnership Action Plan. The strategy
of reforms in the framework of the CSTO is aimed at creating a common
efficient system for liquidating threats to security."

Under IPAP Armenia should carry out the following defense reforms:

– To develop National Security Strategy Despite being for transitional
period only, the strategy will allow Armenia to reaffirm the defensive
nature of its actions towards ensuring its national security and will,
thereby, contribute to mutual confidence in the region. Armenia will
say once again that it is willing to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict peacefully and that it is firmly committed to integrate into
Europe. Armenia is planning to draft the strategy by 2007.

– To develop Defense Concept Armenia welcomes NATO’s initiative to
help the South Caucasian states to develop their strategic documents.

The Defense Concept will be in harmony with the National Security
Strategy. It will be presented for wide public discussion and will
be approved in 2007. It will also be discussed in the Parliament for
the MPs to know how to plan short- and mid-term military budgets. The
Defense Concept highlights the role and mission of the Armenian army
and is reform-oriented. It will set a single strategic guideline
for the armed forces and the government officials responsible for
national security. The publication of the concept will encourage
public discussion of defense problems and support for the military
needs mentioned in the document. The Defense Concept will also be
useful for military reforms and modernization.

– To reform the defense system, particularly, the process of planning
and budgeting The reformation of the defense system will allow to more
effectively use the defense resources and to ensure balance between
the economy development and the military spending. This process will
make defense budgeting more transparent and will, thereby, contribute
to mutual confidence.

– To carry out strategic and defense revision This process will allow
to draft and carry out programs for developing and restructuring
own armed forces. This process will go on throughout and after the
defense reforms and will ensure constant improvement of the army.

– To review the defense legislation and administration This review
will allow to reveal legislative deficiencies and to make relevant
changes. The constitutional reforms and the adoption of the National
Security Strategy will necessitate amendments in the laws on defense,
on mobilization, on military duty, on military service. The Armenian
Parliament has already made some changes to some of the laws: in Oct
2000 it amended the law on military duty, on July 3 adopted the law
on military service, on Dec 17 2003 adopted and July 29 revised the
law on alternative military service.

– To introduce civil element in the army The above-mentioned reforms
will necessitate the involvement of a civil element in the system
of armed forces. The Defense Ministry will need experts on defense
policy who will be able to perform management in various spheres
of the national defense structure. Civil specialists may help the
authorities to develop defense policy, may get actively involved in
legislative cooperation, legal consultations, resource management,
public affairs and purchases. The enlargement of civil participation in
defense policy making will help to achieve the national security goals.

Sargsyan said: "Being on the crossroads of the East and the West,
Europe and Asia, Russia and the US, the South Caucasus is still
under the influence of their interests. The above-mentioned factors
encourage various international security systems to increase their
influence on the defense and security systems of the South Caucasian
states. That’s why the security sphere and the regional processes
are very important and maximally politicized."

Sargsyan said that there are symmetric and asymmetric threats to each
of the South Caucasian states.

The symmetric threats to regional security are:

– unresolved regional conflicts and the prospects for their military
resolution;

– blockade of regional transport communications;

– unsatisfactory democratization;

– disproportional development of the regional countries;

– partial approach of the international community and extra-regional
forces towards the regional countries.

The asymmetrical threats to regional security are:

– international terrorism and attempts to create terrorist network
in the region;

– atmosphere of intolerance and distrust in the region, ethnic-strife
and misinformation.

"There is one more important circumstance here: symmetric and
asymmetric threats are interrelated and interdependent," Sargsyan
said. "For example, intolerance and distrust may be easily used by
international terrorist organizations for paving the way for new
military actions in the South Caucasian conflict zones. None of the
South Caucasian countries can avoid these challenges or liquidate
them alone without international support and military reforms. The
full liquidation of these challenges is the key goal of the military
reforms in the South Caucasus.

In order to have a stable security system, Armenia is getting
actively involved in different security systems. The country is
actively cooperating with both CSTO and NATO and is actively applying
different international military standards to its army. "Hence,
Armenia’s security is based on both the Armenian-Russian military
alliance (bilateral and within CSTO) and the cooperation with NATO
and the US," Sargsyan said.