ARMENIA RUMINATES OVER MEMBERSHIP
By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Nov 23 2006

Yerevan seeks to build better relations with Brussels, while not
offending Moscow.

Political leaders in Abkhazia view the prospect of Georgia entering
NATO with deep anxiety, with government officials saying such a move
would be a grave threat to their own hopes of achieving independence,
and warning that it could spur them to move even closer to Russia.

"Above all, we see ourselves as a country allied with Russia," said
Sergei Shamba, foreign minister of the unrecognised republic. "It’s
well known that NATO expansion in our region runs counter to Russia’s
interests.

"If Georgia joins the North Atlantic Alliance, recognition of Abkhaz
independence will become more difficult since the kind of support
Georgia will get from NATO members will be of a different order;
it will carry more weight."

Abkhaz officials say that in such an eventuality they would be
forced to take counter-measures, which many believe would mean closer
integration with the Russia state.

"We need to agree a legal format for the relationship between
Abkhazia and Russia before this decision [Georgian membership of
NATO] is taken," said Astamur Tania, one of the leaders of the Abkhaz
opposition. "The [Abkhaz] parliament recently passed a resolution
on the matter, describing it as an ‘associate relationship’ between
Abkhazia and Russia."

Tania was formerly a political advisor to Abkhazia’s first president
Vladislav Ardzinba, under whose leadership the concept of an
"association" with Moscow first took shape.

Tania was critical of Tbilisi’s "intensified dialogue" with NATO,
saying, "This has made Georgia think that its foreign policy enjoys the
full backing of NATO members. There is another factor to be considered:
with NATO support, Georgia will upgrade its armed forces, and there’s
no guarantee that these units won’t be used against Abkhazia or
South Ossetia."

Citing the case of Kosovo, which many believe will be granted
independence next year without the consent of its former parent state,
Serbia, Tania expressed fears that Georgia would try to preempt that
decision by ensuring that its claims to Abkhazia and South Ossetia
were resolved in its favour beforehand. He warned that in the case
of Abkhazia, "there’s a great danger that the resolution [sought by
Georgia] will be a military one".

"Georgia is in a hurry to speed up its admission to NATO," said Natella
Akaba, a former member of Abkhazia’s parliament. "Tbilisi is clearly
worried that the mechanism that will lead to recognition for Kosovo
has been activated. The Georgian authorities are well aware that once
Kosovo is recognised, attitudes towards other unrecognised states
will change drastically, and Abkhazia’s chances [of full independence]
will dramatically increase."

The authorities in Sukhum maintain that for them, international
recognition is not contingent on the outcome in Kosovo, since they
argue that Abkhazia has a stronger legal and historical claim to
sovereignty. But they are keeping a close eye on developments in the
Balkans, and the possible response from Tbilisi.

Stanislav Lakoba, secretary of Abkhazia’s Security Council, says he
does not expect Georgia to begin the procedure of joining NATO until
2008 at the earliest.

Tamaz Ketsba, director of the non-government group Civil Society-Man of
the Future, argued that Georgia was facing a "problem of time" with the
prospect of recognition for Kosovo set against its own NATO ambitions.

This, he warned, might force the Georgian to seize the initiative
through military action. "Georgia might be given an easy ride and
admitted to the alliance despite its unresolved conflicts, but once
that happens, NATO members… are unlikely to give their assent to a
military operation in Abkhazia or South Ossetia," said Ketsba. "Given
Russia’s political interests in the region, there will be no green
light for any military operation."

To ward off a possible Georgian offensive, the Abkhaz army has been
conducting military exercises almost every month, involving both
regular units and reservists, most of them veterans of the 1992-93 war.

"It’s all a matter of motivation," said Deputy Defence Minister Merab
Kishmaria. "Unlike the Georgians, we have nowhere to retreat to – the
Abkhaz have no other homeland than this. I assure you that despite
our limited resources, we won’t give in to the Georgians. All the
more so since we have experienced a victorious war with Georgia –
that gives us heart, and could demoralise the enemy."

Akaba was the only Abkhaz commentator interviewed by IWPR who took
the view that Sukhum could live with Georgia’s accession to NATO.

"If NATO takes a decision based on principle to admit Georgia without
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it could have a stabilising effect in
the region," she said. "But NATO is unlikely to make such a move."

Inal Khashig is editor of Chegemskaya Pravda newspaper in Abkhazia
and co-editor of Panorama, IWPR’s Caucasian newspaper.