KARABAGH IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBORHOOD
By Gayane Movsessian

Yerkir, Armenia
Nov 17 2006

Signing of European Neighborhood individual action plans for Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia on November 14 in Brussels became the most
important foreign policy event for the three Caucasus countries.

European Commissioner for external relations and neighborhood policy
Benita Ferrero-Waldner noted that the three documents were signed
with the Caucasus states simultaneously and this was done on purpose.

"The action plans are aimed at promoting regional integration. Today
we must work individually with each of the states but we should
also develop economic integration in the region in transport,
communications, energy and other sectors." The European Commissioner
expressed hope that the documents will contribute to the settlement
of conflicts in the region.

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian and his Azeri counterpart
Elmar Mammedyarov assured that signing these documents "opens a new
phase" in the Karabagh negotiations process and will constitute a
step towards "Caucasus with no borders". At the joint press conference
held in Brussels Oskanian and Mammedyarov stated they are determined
to achieve progress in the Karabagh settlement process.

Mammedyarov characterized the frozen conflicts as "the main challenge
for the South Caucasus".

During the interview given to the Armenian Public TV Mammedyarov noted
that the settlement of the conflict will allow solving the issue of
refugees commenting in this context on the refugees from Shahumian
region. "We shouldn’t be afraid to speak about this," Mammedyarov
stated. The Armenian Foreign Minister stressed that the Action Plans
signed with the European Union "contain the common vision of the
situation in the region. If we go on to discuss the Karabagh issue this
will be a principally new phase in the negotiation process. We will do
our best to accomplish progress and prepare our presidents’ meeting on
this issue," Oskanian stated. On this note, the Foreign Ministers of
the two countries proceeded with the next round of Karabagh settlement
negotiations that were held in Brussels on the same day under the
patronage of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs. However, as always the
details and results of the meeting are not publicized. It was noted
that the meeting was held in a constructive spirit and that next week
the mediators will visit the region to discuss the planned meeting
the of the Armenian and Azeri presidents to be held on November 28
in the framework of the CIS Summit in Moscow.

As the Russian Co-Chair Yuri Merzlyakov announced earlier, the
mediators expected the Brussels meeting to result "at least in
agreement around issues that were discussed during the two previous
meetings. If this happens, many things will become clear including
the issue of the next meeting between the presidents".

The Co-Chairs still hope that Yerevan and Baku will manage to come
to an agreement around the main principles by the end of 2006 or
beginning of 2007. Once such an agreement is achieved the mediators
will start working on the framework agreement. "The document contains
the principles which should be supplemented with specific actions that
should be envisaged n the agreement. We cannot say that immediately
after the principles are agreed upon their specific implementation
will start. For instance, the principle of withdrawal of armed forces:
the principle is accepted, but the document should state when and how
this should be done, from which regions. Or for example, the principle
of peacekeeping – what kind of peacekeeping, who will do it, where
and when? We need time to settle these issues".

There are several articles in the EU Action Plans signed with Armenia
and Azerbaijan that cover the Karabagh settlement. The plans have not
been publicized either in Yerevan or in Baku, therefore we cannot
refer to any specific provisions. It is known, however, that the
document signed with Armenia contains references to the people’s
right to self-determination.

According to Turan Press Agency, provisions on Nagorno Karabagh are
listed as top priorities in the Action Plans of both countries. The
documents also contain a statement on EU’s readiness to contribute
to the peaceful settlement of the conflict. "The European Union
supports the Karabagh settlement process in the framework of UN SC’s
resolutions, OSCE decisions and supports the efforts of the OSCE
Minsk Group," the Turkish press agency informs.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry of Azerbaijan informs that signing of the
Action Plan in Brussels was followed by adopting a "Joint Statement
of Azerbaijan and the European Union" that will be included in the
protocol of the Cooperation Committee. According to representative
of the Azeri Foreign Affairs Ministry Tayir Tagizade, this document
will contain several provisions important for Azrebaijan, including
the Nagorno Karabagh issue.

"The document states that the Cooperation Committee reaffirms
protection of the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity
of Azerbaijan and contributes to the peace and stability in Europe.

The Cooperation Committee supports the speedy settlement of the
Karabagh conflict based on the principles of international law and
in the framework of the UN SC’s resolutions and OSCE documents and
decisions," Tagizade stated.

The situation can be analyzed in more details only after the plans for
the two countries are publicized. However, the Azeri Foreign Affairs
Ministry’s statement can be a signal that any significant progress
in the negotiation process is still a far goal.

Baku’s stopping the arms race and anti-Armenian propaganda as well as
specific actions aimed at cooperation might signal its readiness for
consensuses in the Karabagh settlement process. In order to achieve
this, the Azeri leadership would have to radically review its foreign
and domestic policies. It is very difficult to believe that such
a transformation will take place in Azerbaijan, especially in the
short term.