Lragir, Armenia
Nov 23 2006

CHOOSING BETWEEN GOOD AND WISH

The minister of transport of France does not know yet what a bugbear
his statement about the likelhood of France to tender for concession
management of the Armenian railroad is for the Armenian government.
Perhaps the French minister has not heard the desire of the Armenian
minister of transport and communication that the Russians take up the
management of the railroad. Perhaps during the visit of Jacques
Chirac to Armenia the French minister of transport Dimonique Perben
took the statements about spurring French-Armenian economic
cooperation and French investments in Armenia too close to his heart.
Of course, most of these statements were made by the president of
Armenia, and the French minister has no reason to doubt the words and
commitment of the president of Armenia. Perhaps, however, he had been
guided by the logic of the government subordination in France,
whereas the situation is different in Armenia, especially in the
pre-election period, and it is possible that the question of the
Armenian railroad will not be solved the way Robert Kocharyan would
like to, for instance, but the way Andranik Manukyan, minister of
transport would want. Of course, there is no guarantee that Robert
Kocharyan prefers the French management to the Russian management,
and the honor and touching phrases addressed to Chirac is not enough
to judge. Meanwhile, the French minister of transport seemed to have
been encouraged by these statements when he stated about the
likelihood to bid for the management of the railroad. The Russians
alone can make a fabulous tender because they are not going to
fulfill it anyway. On the other hand, in order to make the railroad
attractive it is necessary to open the Turkish-Armenian border, and
in this case the role and potential of France would be invaluable. In
this aspect, it would be certainly logical that a French or another
European company took up the management of the railroad. After taking
up the management of the Armenian railroad the European company would
launch active lobbing for opening the Turkish-Armenian border or at
least for the operation of the Kars-Gyumri railroad to make it
lucrative and attractive. Even if the border were not opened, and the
Turkish and Armenian relation remained the same, it would be possible
that at least Kars-Gyumri would be operated, at least for transit.
Armenia offered such a proposal to Turkey but Turkey rejected it.
Now, in fact, there is possibility to get the European capital
interested in this matter. The Armenian railroad cannot attract the
Russians for a simple reason – it cannot be used for shipment of
Russian goods. It cannot be a transit route either. The relation with
Georgia and the increasingly fast pace of Georgia towards NATO almost
exclude the operation of the Abkhazian railroad. Hence, for Russia
the Armenian railroad is just another company, the key of which is in
its pocket.

Meanwhile, the Armenian government has to face up to a serious
choice: to act as always or to do what is good. It is not clear yet
which government of Armenia should make the decision. It is also
possible that the French minister took this fact into consideration
when he announced their likelihood to bid for management. Perhaps he
thought that not this government will accept the tender. Despite the
wish of Robert Kocharyan and Andranik Manukyan.

HAKOB BADALYAN