FEELING OF SELF-STAGNATION
Gennady Sysoev

Kommersant, Russia
Nov 30 2006

// CIS agreed for new meetings
Russia is getting used to a new role in the CIS

Russia’s Federation Council head Sergei Mironov announced during a
specially-summoned press conference yesterday that it is early yet to
speak of the CIS summit’s failure. In fact, the only achievement of
the summit in Minsk is that it will not be the last summit. Moreover,
Russia for the first time played a new role – that of the Commonwealth
terminator.

"Without Consensus"

"Difference in viewpoints does not mean that it is a failure and that
the CIS will no longer exist," Sergei Mironov assured journalists
yesterday. However, he actually confirmed the main feature of the
summit was the huge variety of opinions of its participants. What
is more, the fact that it is the speaker of the upper chamber of
Russia’s parliament, and not the minister of foreign affairs or
Russian president, who sums up the summit’s results, is the indirect
evidence that foreign minister or president must have nothing to say
about it. Yet, it is not the main thing.

Nearly for the first time, Moscow faced the situation when its CIS
partners push the organization, which has been in political coma for
the last few years, in the direction they need, but this direction is
not good for Russia. That is why Moscow had to take up a new role –
that of a terminator who does not generate CIS-developing initiatives
anymore, but blocks them.

Technically, Russia has solved its main task in Minsk. Vladimir
Putin managed to restrain the "reformatory impulse" of his Kazakh
counterpart Nursultan Nazarbaev, who dreamed of launching his own
concept of the CIS reform. Its essence is to considerably reduce the
number of cooperation spheres, and to leave in the CIS only those who
are ready to carry out the adopted decisions. From Moscow’s viewpoint,
the CIS reform according to Kazakh prescription will only aggravate the
existing cracks in the CIS, and will lead to its collapse. Finally,
CIS leaders agreed the reform’s concept will be developed by an
interstate group to be formed by June 1, 2007.

Russia attacked another initiative, supported by Kazakhstan and
Ukraine, about the memorandum on the free trade zone. Unlike many of
its CIS partners, Russia does not want to divert the Commonwealth to
economic cooperation only.

CIS leaders did not agree on the issue of the legal status of borders
between Commonwealth states. This issue was discussed behind closed
doors. "The decision was not adopted due to the lack of consensus,"
said CIS executive committee head Vladimir Rushailo.

It was Ukraine who initiated the subject, while Georgia and Azerbaijan
supported it. Russian president was categorically against it,
justifying his position by saying that it is the issue for bilateral
relations. If Ukraine’s initiative remained on the agenda, Putin
would refuse to sign the resolution. Yet, the need for such measure
did not arise, since the debatable issue was removed.

"Does not bother anyone"

Serious divergence between CIS members is nothing new. However, all
previous CIS summits worked out due to productive bilateral meetings
between CIS presidents. It was not the case in Minsk this time.

The only exception could have been the meeting between Vladimir Putin
and his Moldavian counterpart Vladimir Voronin. They reached agreement
on resuming the supply of Moldavian wine and meat to Russia. However,
Voronin acknowledged yesterday the breakthrough in bilateral relations
teethed after Putin-Voronin meeting back in August, and was reinforced
now. Besides, the presidents’ meeting in Minsk was preceded by the
talks between the ministers of economy and trade of Russia and Moldova,
German Gref and Igor Dodon, in Moscow, during which many controversial
issues were solved, and Moldova even said it is ready to sign the
protocol of Russia’s entry to the WTO before the end of 2006.

No results came out of the meeting between presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan concerning Nagorny Karabakh. The meeting passed in Russian
embassy in the presence of Russian minister of foreign affairs Sergei
Lavrov. At first, the meeting was to pass under Vladimir Putin’s
"guidance", but it was changed afterwards. More substantial talks
between Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents were postponed to be
later held in Moscow.

Another meeting could have saved the summit – that between Putin
and Saakashvili. This meeting was held, but it did not lead to the
breakthrough in Moscow-Tbilisi relations. It is proved by the different
estimations of Putin-Saakashvili talks in Minsk.

Sources in Russian delegation insist that Russian and Georgian
presidents spoke thrice but their dialog did not surpass mutual
reproaches. Privately, Putin and Saakashvili spoke only about 5
minutes, and each remained with his own standing.

Georgian president gave a different version of his meeting with
Putin. He said the private talk lasted for 40 minutes. "We had the
chance to privately discuss all issues of Russia-Georgia relations.

The talk was useful. At the same time, we Georgians should stop
reacting to what Russia says and how it acts towards us, because the
scenario for Georgia is being written in Tbilisi, and not in Moscow,
and that is how it will always be from now on," said Saakashvili
in London, where he arrived for the opening ceremony of selling the
shares of the Bank of Georgia.

Thus, Moscow consciously lowers the significance of Putin-Saakashvili
meeting in Minsk, while Tbilisi, on the contrary, is trying to increase
its importance. Putin could agree to the meeting with Saakashvili
only to get serious concessions from Tbilisi on a number of issues
important for Russia. However, Georgia is not ready for it today,
which is proved by Saakashvili’s stiff declaration in London.

The Kremlin will hardly like it, and will probably put aside the
improving of relations with Georgia. So, it is quite likely the
meeting between Putin and Saakashvili in Minsk might only aggravate
the existing differences.

During the summit’s last press conference by Kazakhstan’s president
Nursultan Nazarbaev, who is now the CIS chairman, journalists asked
about the possibility of the Commonwealth’s collapse after some
countries leave it. Nazarbaev’s response was philosophic: "The CIS
does not bother anyone".

In this condition, the CIS might exist for a long time. At least for
as long as Russia needs it.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress