NATURAL DRIFT TO NATO
by Victoria Panfilova
Translated by A. Ignatkin

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 1, 2006, p. 3
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 4, 2006 Monday

RUSSIA’S ZONE OF INFLUENCE WITH POST-SOVIET NEIGHBORS IS SHRINKING; The
Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia are facing an essentially open door
into NATO; Azerbaijan will be in the same position soon. There will
be a cordon sanitaire around Russia, like the cordon the international
community formed around the Bolshevik state in the early 20th century.

Known as the Baku Corps, a crack unit of the Azeri regular army,
is shifting to NATO standards. The news took Moscow by surprise. For
years already Azerbaijan has promoted a well-balanced foreign policy,
advancing relations with NATO but knowing better than unduly advertise
them.

Moscow needs Azerbaijan – and therefore promotes relations with it
in all fields and spheres, including military-political contacts.

Whether it does or not, positions of Russia in Azerbaijan – and
throughout the region in general – seem to have weakened. Imperial
aspect of Russian presence in the southern part of the Caucasus is
history now. The attempts to restore influence with the region through
economic ties proved more disappointing than successful.

Baku appears to understand that membership of neighbor Georgia in
NATO is practically a foregone conclusion, that it is but a matter
of time now, and that everything will be decided by the United States
(the prime agent of NATO’s expansionist policy). Georgia’s membership
in NATO will mark the beginning of a spread of NATO’s influence with
this part of the Caucasus – and farther into the Central Asia. Once
the process is under way, Russia may forget about restoration of its
military-political influence.

The step Azerbaijan has done in NATO direction is quite natural and
reasonable from this standpoint. Once the Georgian issue is settled,
Baku will become in the region the principal claimant for advanced
relations with NATO and for full membership in it at some later date.

Hence the elite unit’s transition to NATO standards as an element
of preparations for this distant future. Along with everything else,
Azerbaijan is determined to master new types of weapons and develop
its defense industry and army. No wonder speculations on the necessity
of new military bases in the republic are so frequent in Azerbaijan
nowadays.

Moscow is not enthusiastic about this. Azerbaijan knows all too well,
however, that the Kremlin may also grumble but cannot actually do
anything to prevent it from happening. Sweetening the bitter pill,
Baku never misses a chance to emphasize its readiness to advance
and broaden economic contacts with Russia. Indeed, Russian companies
enjoy preferential treatment in Azerbaijan. These two vectors when
political bearing points are in the West and socioeconomic in the
North allow for a balanced policy in general.

It stands to reason to expect promotion of military ties with NATO and
economic with Russia will become a strong argument in Baku’s arsenals
in the future debates over the Nagorno-Karabakh status. On the other
hand, Armenia sees what is happening as well. It is already taking
measures. Its military-political strategic alliance with the Kremlin
retained, official Yerevan is advancing relations and contacts with
Brussels – slowly but surely.

The Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia are facing an essentially open
door into NATO; Azerbaijan will be in the same position soon. There
will be a cordon sanitaire around Russia, like the cordon the
international community formed around the Bolshevik state in the
early 20th century.