THE PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT PROCESS WILL RESUME: BAKU SEEMS UNHAPPY WITH THIS
By Gayane Movsessian

Yerkir.am
December 01, 2006

On November 28, the Armenian President Robert Kocharian met his Azeri
counterpart Ilham Aliyev at the Russian Embassy in Minsk. The Karabagh
settlement issue was discussed during this meeting.

The Minsk Group Co-Chair Segey Lavrov, OSCE Chairman-in-Office Carel
de Guht as well as the Armenian and Azeri Foreign Ministers Vardan
Oskanian and Elmar Mammedyarov participated in the meeting.

The two presidents had a confidential talk at the end of the
meeting. We do not know what they discussed. The Armenian Foreign
Minister made some general comments on the meeting.

According to him, during the tête-a-tête meeting presidents Kocharian
and Aliyev had noted the constructive nature of the negotiations
when they touched upon the provisions of the document around which
no agreement has been reached so far, ArmInfo informs.

"I cannot give specific assessment as to whether progress was made or
not, but both presidents appreciated the meeting both in terms of the
atmosphere and in terms of the constructive approaches taken. I think
the Armenian and Azeri leaders will analyze everything in detail in the
coming several days after which clear instructions will be provided to
the foreign affairs ministries as to further steps," Oskanian stated.

Commenting on the overall assessment of the Karabagh settlement
process in 2006 Oskanian noted that the general tendency has been
positive. Oskanian believes that even though no serious progress has
been made in the Karabagh settlement process, no regressive steps
were made either.

"I believe the negotiation process has not suffered in this period. We
can only wait and see what the further steps in 2007 will be. At this
stage, I will not talk about the contents of yesterday’s negotiations
but I can state that issues around which no agreement has yet been
reached were on the agenda during the negotiations," Oskanian stressed.

He believes the OSCE Ministerial Council to be held on December 4-5 in
Brussels will give an opportunity to summarize the developments of the
negotiation process in 2006. "A specific document has been circulated.

Elections will be held in Armenia in 2007, and in 2008 both Armenia
and Azerbaijan will have elections. This can have an impact on the
negotiation process in terms of the timelines but not the contents,
and I am sure that the negotiation process will not be disrupted,"
Oskanian concluded.

The Russian media note that the Minsk meeting between the Armenian
and Azeri presidents was preparation for another rendezvous between
the two leaders that is supposed to be held in December in Moscow
under the patronage of the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Comersant newspaper states, "Baku says that the Minsk meeting can
yield some results if President Putin exerts the necessary pressure
on President Kocharian. In this case, the Azeri experts believe,
Aliyev might agree to Moscow’s demands not to support Georgia with
gas and electricity supply." However, the newspaper notes that these
issues will hardly be solved during the Minsk meeting. "The three
presidents will more likely agree to have another meeting of similar
format this time in Moscow," Comersant suggests.

Meanwhile, Zerkalo newspaper in Baku writes, referring to some
information sources, that if an agreement is reached around the
conflict settlement, Baku will demand to declare the constitutional
referendum in Nagorno Karabagh Republic invalid. The referendum will
be held on December 10.

It should be noted that no breakthrough was achieved during the
negotiations. The peaceful settlement process will continue, and this
in itself is an accomplishment. The international mediators have been
trying to convince the official Baku of the unacceptability of the
resort to military actions. Baku, however, does not want to dismiss
the possibility of a military solution.

A hysteric campaign has started in Azerbaijan around the statement made
by the US foreign policy expert, retired diplomat Wayne Mary. During
a speech at John Hopkins University in Washington Mary stated,
"Azerbaijan is recently seriously considering the possibility of
military solution to the Karabagh conflict. However, Azerbaijan’s
victory in such a case is impossible. Nagorno Karabagh is an infallible
fortress by itself that is made even stronger by the Armenian military
troops. Even the American army will have problems attacking it.

Pentagon shares this opinion. In terms of their military fitness,
the Armenian troops are significantly superior to the Azeris. It
is not a secret that Armenians have an army while Azeris only have
military forces. If military actions are restarted the Azeris would
only have to rely on human resources while Armenians can rely on
military superiority. In case of a war, Armenians would only have
to defend Karabagh, while Azeris would have to conquer the entire
territory of Karabagh, which is practically impossible".

Azeri officials have made no comments on this statement. However,
the head of the information policy and press agency of the Azeri
Foreign Affairs Ministry Tair Tagizade has noted, "If the potential
of diplomatic interaction is exhausted, I think Azerbaijan will have
to consider alternative solutions, and in this case the processes
of reform and improvement of the armed forces will play a serious
role. These processes are progressing rather rapidly in Azerbaijan;
the military budget significantly exceeds the Armenian military
expenditures."

We have already heard about this and unfortunately will have to hear
such statements in the future as well. Baku does not want to give
up its policy of threats and blackmailing. It is at least naive to
speak about compromises in such an atmosphere.

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