USA PUTS PRESSURE ON BAKU TO SETTLE KARABAKH CONFLICT – ARMENIAN PAPER
by Artak Grigoryan

Hayots Askhkhar, Armenia
Nov 30 2006

"Minsk will be continued"

The mysterious silence surrounding the results of the [28 November]
Minsk meeting between [Armenian President Robert] Kocharyan and
[his Azerbaijani opposite number Ilham] Aliyev gives grounds for
controversial predictions and comments. Moscow-based Kommersant
newspaper, for one, says that [Russian president] Vladimir Putin
will invite the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents to Moscow soon
but before that in Minsk " the three presidents look set to decide
to arrange a new meeting in Moscow in the same format".

Naturally, the two parties were trying to specify their positions and
prepare themselves for that important meeting. It is also clear that
in such conditions the presidents abstained from making statements
about the forthcoming meeting. Let us try to understand what is the
reason behind shifting the "window of opportunities" of 2006 from
Minsk to Moscow.

We believe this game is a complicated one and neither the parties to
the conflict, nor even Russia play the main part. Russia has been
chosen because the international community and especially the USA
want the Russian president to be the person who observes that there
is a "gap" in the positions of the sides to the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict. That is to say, they are trying to "fight fire with fire".

In order to make this happen they temporarily postponed the NATO
expansion programme and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili did
not see the "green light" for his country in Riga and was not received
by the Russian president in Minsk.

The USA and its partners focus their attention on the Karabakh
issue and are trying to act on two levels: jointly with Russia and
directly. Incidentally, at the first level they engage in a complicated
bargain with Russia. At the second level they exert pressure on the
sides in the conflict, especially on Azerbaijan.

There are three main reasons for that. First, accepting the frame
agreement which is being discussed now is bound to be more painful
for Azerbaijan. Second, the USA has more levers to influence
Azerbaijan. Finally, Washington believes that Russia can influence
Armenia in the most effective way.

We believe that the main "intrigue" at the present stage of the talks
is that the USA forces Azerbaijan on various levels to settle the
conflict. For this reason, the Americans repeatedly emphasize that
only peaceful settlement of the Karabakh issue is acceptable. In
Baku Jonathan Henick, public affairs officer at the US embassy in
Azerbaijan, is in charge of this job. In the USA, an expert of the
American Foreign Policy Council, Wayne Merry, is doing this at the
level of experts.

The American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, met
Arkadiy Gukasyan, the president of Nagornyy Karabakh, and discussed
settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Gukasyan thus tried to
find out more about Azerbaijan’s ambitions. It turned out that the
USA continues the process of breaking the courage of the Azerbaijan
and at the same time is seeking a closer involvement of Russian in
resolution of the conflict. This suggests that the peace talks will
receive a new boost over the next two months. How effective they will
be is up to Russia’s response to the Karabakh policy of the USA. The
ultimate agreement will be reached simultaneously between the USA
and Russia, as well as between Armenia and Azerbaijan.