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NEW YEAR’S GAS CRISIS LOOMS FOR RUSSIA’S NEIGHBORS
| "Turkish Daily News" newspaper (Turkey) | Stephen Boykewich, AFP |
15-Dec-2006 |
As a Jan. 1 deadline looms for Belarus and Georgia to either strike new
deals for Russian gas or face possible supply cuts, Minsk is showing
defiance and Tbilisi is lining up alternatives, but Moscow seems to hold all
the cards, analysts said.
Generous Russian gas subsidies to its former Soviet neighbors have fallen
like dominoes in recent years as state gas giant Gazprom has sought to hike
prices nearly to European levels — currently averaging $235 (177 euros) per
thousand cubic meters (TCM).
It has been a bitter pill to swallow in countries like Ukraine, which was
paying about $50 per TCM just a year ago, and had its gas supplies cut when
it resisted Gazprom’s demand for a more than fourfold increase.
Now Georgia and Belarus are facing similar demands, and though each is
resisting in its own way, both are running up against the hard reality of
Russia’s new energy policy: Moscow sets the terms, and its partners "take it
or leave it," Alfa Bank analyst Chris Weafer said.
"No matter how you look at it, the cards are all stacked heavily in Russia’s
favor and against Belarus and Georgia," Weafer told AFP.
After witnessing the January cutoff to Ukraine and Russia’s hardball tactics
to gain state control of the foreign-run Sakhalin-2 energy project — using
environmental pressure to threaten a project shutdown — "both countries
know the game very well," Weafer said.
"They will be under no illusions that Russia will cut gas supplies to get
what it wants."
What Russia wants in the case of Belarus is what it wanted in countries such
as Ukraine and Armenia — control over valuable gas transport
infrastructure, analysts said.
Armenian gas prices are set at $110 per TCM to the end of 2008, Gazprom
spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told Echo of Moscow radio in a recent interview,
in exchange for ceding control of its gas distribution network.
"It’s a package deal in which we strengthen our position in Armenia, we get
assets that interest us," Kupriyanov said.
Minsk is trying hard not to give up control over its own pipeline network,
including transport pipelines to Western Europe that are "its last trump
card in bargaining with Russia," Belarussian analyst Tatyana Manenok told
AFP.
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has threatened to break relations
with Moscow if Gazprom does not back down from its current demand of either
$200 per TCM of gas or 50 percent control over Belarussian pipeline company
Beltransgas.
But Moscow has already dealt Minsk a blow with yesterday’s decision to
introduce steep tariffs on its oil exports to its traditional ally.
Factor in Minsk’s reliance on cheap gas to prop up its manufacturing sector,
and "the Belarussian economy, which is Soviet and unreformed, is set for
collapse," Manenok said.
Georgia has more leeway and is moving fast to secure enough gas from
neighboring Azerbaijan, as well as Iran — which has left Washington less
than happy — in an effort to become completely independent from Russia.
Georgian energy officials will hold talks with Azerbaijani, Turkish and
Iranian officials over the next several days to see if Georgia can cover its
2007 needs for at least 1.7 billion cubic meters of gas even if Gazprom
turns off the taps, an energy ministry spokesman told AFP.
The catch, Alfa Bank’s Weafer said, is that Georgia’s alternative gas
sources are likely to cost close to the $230 per TCM Russia is demanding.
However painful Russia’s neighbors are finding Gazprom’s new pricing policy,
"they’ve enjoyed a subsidy that was appropriate for the Soviet Union and was
extended for 15 years."
Now, "they’re between a rock and a hard place," Weafer said.
MANVEL SARGSYAN:NEITHER OF SOUTH CAUCASIAN STATES CARES OF NEIGHBORS
| PANArmenian.Net News Portal (Armenia) | 14-Dec-2006 |
Supposed changes in the balance forces in the region and optimistic
statements on the possible settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh problem by the
end of 2006 have revealed new directions and distribution of the power
vector. External factors and first of all strengthening of the U.S. and
European structures in the region and Russia’s retreat from the dominant
positions is being observed in the region. Analyst of Kavkaz center Manvel
Sargsyan comments on the situation to PanARMENIAN.Net.
How do you assess the balance of forces in the region?
In fact there are no special moves in the intention to engage the South
Caucasian states into a unified new system of new quality, which is being
declared both by the states of the region and the international community.
In this regard efforts of individual activity are observed. Georgia tries to
settle its relations with Russia with harsh methods and integrate into the
European structures. The President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev put forward a
program of total isolation of Armenia, hoping that he will be able to enlist
support of international community. Armenia attempts to balance its
relations between the West and Russia. Neither of the states of the region
has time for its neighbors.
Such an individual activation strengthens the dependence of regional states
from this or that foreign factors. More and more the interests of foreign
powers come in contact with this or that country in the region. Compromise
between the conflicting sides becomes more and more complicated. For
example, the more the Armenian leadership speaks about its readiness to
serious compromises in the Nagorno Karabakh issue, the more the Azeri
authorities strengthen their military calls. An appetite to get all but not
a part through bargaining with foreign powers occurs.
The states of the region stake not on compromise, but on exclusive foreign
support for their own intentions. In this view, Azerbaijan’s speaking of
military solution of the conflict, which totally is put in a wider circle of
necessary means, is needed to ‘return the territories’. In October Ilham
Aliyev stated that "if there is no progress in negotiation process any
variants will be discussed, stressing it means that here Baku must think
about military operation". It means that he, more precisely than earlier,
pointed that military operation is the last possible step. It needs time
which, in his opinion, works for Azerbaijan’s favor.
What exactly did the Azeri President mean?
Ilham Aliyev has already announced of the necessity of total information,
communicative, political and economic blockade of Armenia. He eyes such a
program as an instrument to force Armenia to accept Azerbaijan’s conditions.
Aliyev’s reiterates Azerbaijan’s intention to press for the construction of
the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railway bypassing Armenia as well as to
establish high-level relations with all those states Armenia enjoy good and
even friendly relations (for example with Iran). He also speaks of the
intention to efficiently struggle against the Armenian lobby by opening
consulates in the states with most active Armenian Diaspora. There are also
plans to keep on pushing the Karabakh issue into the agenda of international
organizations. That is to say, to fight at all fronts.
However the problems of the region are not restricted to these two states.
There also exist the EU’s interests, especially after the signing of the
Action Plan with all of three South Caucasian states.
There are separate activity lines in the South Caucasus. It is the already
mentioned EU program, that is the problem of engagement of the South
Caucasian states into the European Neighborhood Policy. Here I have to
underline the fact of separate communication vectors between the EU and
regional states. Europe also has been lured by the predilections of
individual initiatives of the states of the region. There is no smell of
regional integration in South Caucasus, instead tendencies of separate
integration lines are observed between EU programs and the regional
countries. In the current period of global changes the civilized world goes
to any experiments for the sake to preserve universal stability and
encourage the growth of political quality throughout the globe.
The old principles of stability ensuring work get worse and worse and it is
necessary to find methods to transform global order on the basis of less
destructive processes to prevent appearance of different uncontrollable
territories. We notice that these issues occupy bigger and bigger place in
the geopolitics of Western states. The South Caucasus, in this regard, is
not the biggest problem. We should not also forget about the chain of
disruptiveness – Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. The Caucasian problems are more
local.
Still there is one more moment – the relationship of the South Caucasian
states with Russia. For example, Russia has already set a task to Armenia –
make your choice. Its meaning is difficult for comprehension, not only for
the people of our region but also for Russia herself. I do not think that
anybody fully understands what is right, what is not. The work is going on
as a habit, and the characters of reciprocal demands do not display
well-shaped logic: this is the specific character of period of changes. From
time to time we notice that the presidents of regional countries just do not
understand how to behave, what others want from them. There is no iron logic
– there are only amorphous approaches and bad knowledge of own interests.
Nagorno Karabakh has adopted the Constitution. How can it influence on the
political situation in the region?
With the adoption of the Nagorno Karabakh Constitution a new factor occurred
in the region, which different international bodies and Azerbaijan can use.
This factor gives a lot of possibilities both to Armenia and Nagorno
Karabakh. The referendum can remain unrecognized, but it is not easy to
ignore the fact of collective will of the people of this territory. At least
the referendum is the leading law of this territory, and to qualify it as
illegal is not easy. Nobody can do it – the world has not seen anything more
legal than the national law. After all we can qualify as illegal all the
legal acts of Azerbaijan but it makes little sense.
Nations live their life. All the others can define their attitude towards
the actions of this or that nation. They can recognize their right. The
other nations can also try forcefully to lead away a nation from its own way
with disdain. If a nation has chosen its way it must prove to itself and all
the others the effectiveness of that very way and be able to defend its
choice. Up till now the NKR was able to do that: time will show if there is
a will to continue that initiative. And the world always recognizes those
who deserve it.
GEORGE BUSH "DEFINED" THE PLACE OF AZERBAIJAN
| "Zerkalo" newspaper (Azerbaijan) | R. Mirkadirov | 14-Dec-2006 |
He calls on us to get integrated in EuroAtlantic Space
Many media, commenting on the statement made by President George Bush when
giving credentials to the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to
USA Yashar Aliev and disseminated by the channels of "Azertaj" state news
agency, emphasized the support expressed by the Head of the White House for
the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Public recognition and support of
the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan by US President is undoubtedly a
notable event, though it is this part of his statement that Bush viewed as a
protocol phrase revealing the position of the current American
administration on Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Meanwhile, when
communicating with the new ambassador of Azerbaijan, George Bush made more
implicative statements as to the long-term plans of US on Azerbaijan.
In general, we should note at the outset that during the ceremony of
granting nine other credentials, US President paid quite large attention to
Azerbaijan, which by itself is a significant factor. Still it is not a
matter of the "mass quantity" but the content of these statements.
Emphasizing the big role of Azerbaijan in fighting terrorism, George Bush
qualified our country as a "reliable partner" of USA, "The future of
Azerbaijan is linked to the EuroAtlantic community, and USA will be
supporting the efforts of Azerbaijan in the sphere of developing ties with
NATO and EU".
This is what we should have considered right away. The Head of the White
House, as straightforward and sincere as only an American can be, clearly
defined the future place of Azerbaijan in military-political system of
international security. In his opinion, it turns out that our place is in
NATO, which makes the author of these lines quite happy. It would be good if
official Baku on its behalf also gets determined on the foreign policy line
of our country.
It is not very hard to understand US President. Today, Russia and USA have
one "outpost" each in the South Caucasus – Armenia and Georgia. While, the
"outpost" is still not a reliable and integral "front line", it is a sort of
a "stronghold". As for Azerbaijan, it is still wary of "falling under the
trumpets", and therefore is still in doubts. Meanwhile, without Azerbaijan
it is impossible to create a reliable "front line". For this reason, George
Bush has to encourage official Baku by stating that "USA will be supporting
the efforts of Azerbaijan in developing the relations with NATO and EU",
similarly to the situation in Georgia.
The Head of the White House does not even conceal the reason why USA
attaches vital importance to an integral "front line" on the border with
Russia. As reported by "Turan", George Bush thinks that Azerbaijan plays a
key role in the energy corridor to Europe as a supplier of energy resources
and a transit country. In the coming years, the significance of this
corridor will be growing. USA supports economic and political reforms of
Azerbaijan, which aim at ensuring long-term security and stability. In other
words, the West and USA in the first place is to control the sources of the
energy carriers and the routes of their supply to Europe, especially in the
light of the recently increased "energy blackmail" by Russia.
It is not accidental that George Bush views the necessity of settling
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict from the point of ensuring regional security,
since it is only thus that the situation in the South Caucasus countries may
fully be delivered of the Russia’s control.
Referring to Karabagh conflict, Bush stated that this issue keeps disrupting
the regional security in the South Caucasus. He called on Azerbaijan to
continue seeking peaceful ways of conflict settlement. He also mentioned the
necessity of searching for the paths of establishing trust between the
nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, he expressed obvious
support for territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. USA as one of the OSCE
Minsk Group Co-chairs keeps working with the leaders of Azerbaijan and
Armenia to speed up peaceful resolution of the conflict.
In other words, paying more attention to Azerbaijan than it is due by
protocol, in the conversation with our ambassador George Bush clearly
defined the goals of American policy on our country and the methods of their
achievement. Thus, the Americans do not have "incomplete missions". In case
of a problem emerged, they act on the principle "who if not us". If it is
good or bad is another matter.
However, USA clearly knows what is needed for meeting the goal set, which
unfortunately is not true for Azerbaijan. We should just remember certain
steep turns, which were traced in the foreign policy line of official Baku
all through 2006. For instance, the year was started from almost brotherly
relations with Russia, while by the end of the year they became rather tense
to put it mildly. It should have been expected. We should have kept in mind
that "being friends" with Russia is costly as a rule, since the latter more
frequently puts the proposals which are impossible to agree. This time it
was the same. Russia suggested that Azerbaijan become a participant of the
"crusade" against Georgia and torture to cold death the "orthodox Georgian
brethren", "disloyal" to the Kremlin. May be Baku really did not expect such
an outcome but they really could not show solidarity on this issue with the
Kremlin. It is not only that they would have to leave "brother" Georgia
alone in cold winter, with almost 500 thousand Azerbaijani residents, with a
Baku-Ceyhan oil and Baku-Erzrum gas pipelines passing via its territory. The
problem is that they would have to doom to freezing the Georgia, which today
is the only reliable "outpost" of USA in the South Caucasus. While this is
what official Washington would not forgive to official Baku.
In other words, Azerbaijan had no choice. Official Baku, placed between the
"devil and the deep sea", chose the least of the two evils.
The problem is of a different type. The threats and challenges of the
Russian imperial policy on CIS space, especially in the South Caucasus, are
almost constant. They do not disappear and are unlikely to in the near
future. They simply vary depending on who is at power in Baku or Moscow. It
is for this reason that Azerbaijan needs to quickly understand what should
be its military political system for ensuring security, as Mr. Bush
suggests. It is to be done not out of big love for USA or the West at large
but at least for the sake of the primitive "self-preservation instinct".
Indeed, in this case certain difficulties will emerge, related to the
hostile attitude of Russia and Iran. However, it would be much better to
"provoke" such aggravation in a so-called "peace time", which is
"convenient" for us, than to act in the time of trouble after crisis
situation have emerged. The crisis situations need to be treated through
ensuring maximum security of own, supported by clear international legal
commitments.
ONE MORE UNRECOGNIZED REFERENDUM
| "24 Saati" newspaper (Georgia) | Dmitry Avaliani | 12-Dec-2006 |
Karabagh Joins the Race
The parade of separatist referenda on the post-Soviet space is still
underway. On Sunday, the Mountainous Karabagh voted for adoption of the new
Constitution, in accordance with which Mountainous Karabagh is an
independent state. The results of the referendum were not recognized by the
international community. Baku thinks that the referendum held is a part of
the performance staged by Moscow.
The referenda parade was a specific consequence of the address by Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Several months ago to resolve Georgia’s
territorial problems, he proposed to the country’s authorities holding
referenda in the self-proclaimed Republics. At the same time, he brought the
example of Chechnya, where the referendum was held after forced
establishment of Moscow’s jurisdiction. Following this statement of the
Russian President, the referenda on the issue of independence were held in
Pridnestrovie (in October, already seventh time), South Ossetia (in
November, second time). While in Karabagh, it is the first Constitution that
the authorities decided to put to public debate.
In accordance with the results announced, 98 percent of Mountainous Karabagh
population voted for the Constitution and independence as an outcome. The
process was monitored by about 150 observers from the self-proclaimed
Republics, representatives of Russian and European NGOs. The Secretary
General of the Council of Europe Terry Davis, as it was expected, stated
that the referendum organized by the authorities of Mountainous Karabagh is
illegal, and its results will not be recognized by the international
community. He thinks that the political decision on Mountainous Karabagh
status may be achieved only during the negotiations between the Presidents
of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The Chairperson of the Sub-committee on Mountainous Karabagh of the CoE
Parliamentary Assembly Lord Russell Johnson on his behalf stated that the
referendum in Mountainous Karabagh should be conducted in accordance with
the interests of the conflicting sides, while the Sunday referendum violated
this principle. The European structures gave the same evaluation to the
referendum in South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie, and will naturally refuse to
recognize the results.
"The referendum held in Mountainous Karabagh has no legal force and is
illegitimate", Azerbaijani Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mamediarov
stated. Naturally, the President of the self-proclaimed Republic Arkady
Ghukasian keeps to a different point of view and thinks that the new
Constitution will have a positive impact on the settlement process.
In a special address Armenian President Robert Kocharian congratulated the
Karabagh population on adopting the Constitution. R. Kocharian noted that in
the referendum the Karabagh people fixed their striving for freedom. He
thinks that in compliance with international standards, adoption of the
Constitution became one more basis for building Karabagh statehood.
According to the Azerbaijani political scientist, Head of the Department of
Conflict Management and Migration of the Peace and Democracy Institute Arif
Yunusov, the Karabagh referendum is only a "follow up of the parade of
referenda, which were held this year on the post-Soviet space by Moscow’s
order". In his opinion, these are the trump cards of Russia in the struggle
against the Western states. "Simply that in this game Karabagh, South
Ossetia and Pridnestrovie are only pawns", Yunusov said.
At the Karabagh referendum, unlike that of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and
Pridnestrovie, there were no observers from the official structures of
Russia, the Russian Duma. Overall, recently Russia paid Karabagh little
attention as regards the support of separatist regimes. The Karabagh
government was quite passive in the issues of the joint activities with the
governments of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Pridnestrovie.
"Russia’s position on Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Pridnestrovie does not differ
from its position on Karabagh", member of the State Duma Constantine Zatulin
stated. In his opinion, he opts for Russia’s recognition of the
sovereignties. Probably, Russia will be driven towards support of
Mountainous Karabagh through tension in the relations with Azerbaijan, which
in its turn is conditioned by Baku’s refusal to be involved in the
anti-Georgian energy blockade.
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