CYPRUS’ MILITARY BALANCE: GREEK AND TURKISH FORCES IN COMPARISON
By Ioannis Michaletos

Balkanalysis, AZ
Dec 17 2006

After the end of the Cold War in 1989, only a small corner in
Europe remained divided along an "iron curtain" with its own divided
capital. Cyprus, a beautiful island in the eastern Mediterranean Sea,
is the only state in Europe that has part of its territory (37 percent)
occupied and its capital, Nicosia, divided, along the infamous "Green
Line." Despite the Turkish self-declared Republic of Northern Cyprus,
created after the 1974 invasion, there is only one Cyprus recognized by
international law and that is the 73 percent Greek-inhabited Cypriot
Republic. Even though the Turkish Army stands firm on the rest of the
territory; the so called "Republic of Northern Cyprus" has not been
recognized by any state in the world and there have been plenty of
UN condemnations calling for a withdrawal of the Turkish forces from
the island.

In April 2004, the two sides were close to an agreement based on
the principles of the "Annan plan." The referendum, held by the
Greek Cypriot side, rejected the proposals by a 76 percent majority,
thus reflecting the strong mood in the country for a solution based
more on justice rather than on compromise. Currently Turkey is being
pressed by the EU to accept the Cypriot democracy as a state entity
and at the same time to lift the bans that keep Cypriot airplanes and
ships out of Turkish territorial waters and air. Since the acceptance
of the Republic of Cyprus into the European Union, time is ticking
away for the Turks to balance their regional aspirations and their
desired status quo in the Eastern Mediterranean with their ambition
to becoming a member state in the enlarged European family. Turkey’s
failure to open its ports to Cypriot vessels led to a predictably
harsh report card from the EU in November 2006, and there is not
currently much reason for optimism in the near future.

Wary of the Turkish armed presence, the Cypriot Republic has greatly
increased its military capabilities over the past decade by acquiring
state-of-the-art Russian weaponry and at the same time expanding its
diplomatic capabilities beyond its traditional fraternal friendship
with Greece. Already Cypriot officers attend four military Study
Groups in Brussels and regularly train alongside officers from other
member states regarding issues such as naval strategic transport,
threats from nuclear proliferation and the use of UAV-type aircraft.

Moreover Coast Guard exercises are being held in Cyprus with the
assistance of other EU members, with the main aim of curbing illegal
immigration from the Middle East. Lastly, Cyprus is a part of the
Battle Group composed of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. It is supposed
to become operational by October 2007.

The Turkish Cypriot population relies heavily on the annual economic
assistance of Turkey, as well as on the formidable Turkish-stationed in
their part of the island. The Turkish Army often upgrades its systems
and holds military exercises on a regular basis. Turkey has stated many
times that it will never recognize Cyprus as an independent state and
it seems that it is not in their interest to do so unless it is pressed
significantly to do so by the world powers, namely the USA and EU.

The old thinking in the Turkish military remains in vogue today
regarding Cyprus. It hypothesizes that a united Cyprus would soon
fell under Greek domination, thus allowing the Greek to encircle
the Turkish periphery from Eastern Thrace to the Aegean shores and
down to the Alexandrine Gulf. Adding the perilous conditions on the
southeastern borders of Turkey, where Kurdish guerilla groups are
regaining strength, bolstered by their brethren across the hills in
Iraq, as well as the old enmities with Armenia and Syria and the
unknown factor of America’s plans for far eastern neighbor Iran,
it seems likely that Turkey will continue to manifest the symptoms
of the "Sevres syndrome," an outlook "mirrored by the narrow notion
of security – limited to the sovereignty and territorial integrity
of the state – that characterizes Turkish politics."

On the military level now, Turkey’s forces are generally superior in
numbers, whilst the Greek Cypriots have at their disposal high-quality
armaments and the conviction that they will fight hard and make a
"last stand" in case of a war to defend their homeland.

The geographical terrain of Cyprus is less than 9,250 sqkm –
excluding the British Bases – and it is unlikely that any conflict
will result in a kind of warfare that will involve large numbers of
tanks and troop movements. Special Forces, along with artillery and
missiles, would play the decisive role for a quick victory one either
side. Furthermore a potential conflict would draw Greece and Turkey
into the war, thus enlarging the skirmishes on a much wider front,
so as to encompass most of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. In any
such conflict, the interests of the United States and the EU would be
to control the situation as soon as possible and act in order to stop
a wider war. Again, the side that would be able to move faster and
more dynamically in the first couple of days would probably create the
‘facts on the ground’ and emerge the winner.

The Cyprus issue has achieved global importance due to the geopolitical
placement of the country, just opposite from Israel and the Middle
East, and just a few miles north of the Suez Canal.

Recently, France signed a defense contract with Cyprus, because of
its involvement in Lebanon’s peacekeeping force, and Germany also has
agreed to use military installation in Cyprus in order to support
its operations in Beirut. The UK now holds its own two sovereign
bases that have a surface area of up to 3 percent of the island,
and it seems unquestionable that Britain will retain its historic
geo-strategic position here for decades to come.

For their part, Greece and Turkey now have their own national troops
based on the island, even though the former are vastly outnumbered by
the latter. Both countries also have continuously vowed to support
their own side in case of any conflict. Other players in the area
include the USA, Russia (which has cultivated strong ties with the
Greeks over the past 15 years as well) and Israel, which views Cyprus
as its safe haven in case of a major Arab offensive in the future.

Cyprus also is vital for the humanitarian relief of Lebanon, and
recently more than 100,000 Lebanese citizens were transferred via
Cyprus to safety in various locations worldwide.

The Cypriot government helped evacuate, house and repatriate 13,500
Americans during the Israeli war against Lebanon this past July. On
October 25, as if to give a final sending-off gift to a tourism season
disrupted by the war, an American Naval vessel, the USS Eisenhower,
pulled in to Cyprus for four days. "This routine port visit offers a
shore leave opportunity for the more than 5,000 crew members and is
a way for America to thank Cyprus for its support during the Lebanon
crisis," announced a US embassy statement.

On overall assessment, the Cyprus issue in inexorably connected
with all of the other chronic problems in the Eastern Mediterranean
and Middle East area. The Israeli-Arab conflict, the Greek-Turkish
brinkmanship and the ambitious of the Great Powers will dominate the
Cypriot future, since this island is a naval fortress adrift in the
most vital and sensitive area for world security nowadays. It is also
a hub of global commerce with a well established banking industry
which processes billions in legal and not-so-legal funds, making it
again a place of great importance and interest for powerful people
around the world.

Equipment and personnel breakdown of military balance in Cyprus

Land Armies

Republic of Cyprus National Guard (plus Greek national forces)

Tanks: 41 (T-80U type), 82 (M48MOLD type), 113 (AMX-30 type)-Russian,
US and French types respectively.

Armored vehicles: 43 (BMP-3 Type), 124 (Cascavel Type), 27 (Jararaca
Type), 150 (Leonidas II type), 131 ( VAB VCI Type).- Russian,
Brazilian, Greek and French types respectively.

Artillery: 8 (M110A2 Type), 12 (M107 Type), 12 (Zuzana Type), 12 (Mk3F
Type), 12 (TR-FI Type), 12 (M114 Type), 72 (M56 Type), 20 (M-1944)-
USA, Slovakian and Russian types. 100mm, 105mm, 155 mm, 175 mm, 203 mm.

Rocket launchers: 4 (BM-21 Grad type), 24 (M-63 Plamen type)- All
Russian types: 40×122mm, 32×128mm, respectively.

Antiaircraft systems: 6 (Tor-M1 type), 12 (Skyguard type) – Russian
and Italian types

Antiaircraft systems: 12 (Atlas-Mistral type), 18 (Mistral type),
100 (9K32M-Strela type)- French and Russian types.

Antiaircraft machine guns: 24 (GDF Type), 50 (M-55 Type)- 2×35mm,
and 3×20 mm respectively.

Antitank weapons: 50 (Milan type), 1,000 (Apilas type), 1,000
(RPG-7V type), and unknown number of M72A2 Law type.- 112mm, 85 mm,
66 mm respectively

Other weapons: 150 (M40A1-106mm), 114(MO-RT61-120 mm), 26 (M2/M60-107
mm), 180 (E-44-81 mm), 50 (M19- 60 mm)

Turkish Cypriot Army (plus Turkish national forces)

Tanks: 386 (M48A5 type) US origin

Armored vehicles: 200 (AIFV type), 200 (M-113 type)- US and Turkish
respectively

Artillery: 12 (M115 type), 24 (M44T type), 35 (M52T type), 12 (M110
type), 36 (M114 type), 90 (M101 type)- US origin: 203 mm, 155 mm,
155 mm, 203 mm, 155 mm and 105 mm respectively.

Rocket launchers: 18 (T-122)- Turkish origin, 40×122 mm.

Antiaircraft systems: 170 (Stinger missiles), 18 (Igla missiles),
US and Russian respectively

Antiaircraft machine guns: 84 (M1 type)- US origin, 40 mm.

Antitank systems: 36 (TOW type), 12 (Konkurs-M type), 48 (MILAN type)-
USA, Russian and French types respectively

Other weapons: 170 (M40A1-106 mm), 30 (HY-12DI-120 mm), 100 (M2/M30-107
mm), 175 (M1/M29-81 mm)

Navy and Air Force

Republic of Cyprus Navy and Air Force (plus Greek national forces)

Combat helicopters: 11 (Mi-35P type), 4 (Gazelle type)- Russian and
French types respectively

Transport and General Use helicopters: 4 (Bell type)- US origin

Aircraft: 1 (BN-2T type), 1 (BN-Maritime type), 1 (PC-9 type)

Patrol boats: 15 of different Greek, Israeli and Italian types. Most
of them speed boats with heavy equipment

Surface-to-sea missiles: 24 (Exocet MM40 Type)- French origin

Turkish Cypriot Navy and Air Force (plus Turkish national forces)

General Purpose helicopters: 4 (UH-1H type)- US origin

Aircraft: 3 (T-41D type), 1 (An-2 Colt type)

Patrol boats: 2 speed light weight speed boats

Manpower

Republic of Cyprus National Guard (plus Greek national forces)

13,000 active-duty, plus 65,000 reserves

Turkish Cypriot armed forces (plus Turkish national forces)

40,000 active-duty, plus 25,000 reserves

NOTE: To the above military balance one has to take into consideration
the general balance of powers between Greece and Turkey. Also weapons
such as electronic warfare, special operations vehicles, training
equipment, support vehicles, ammunition, rifles-machine guns, mines,
bombs, jeeps, trucks and radars were not accounted for in this survey.

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