PSYCHOLOGY THAT IS STRONGER THAN MIND
James Hakobyan

Lragir, Armenia
Dec 18 2006

The diminishing activity of Armenia in the talks over Karabakh had
been expected before the recent interview with Robert Kocharyan when
different officials in Karabakh and Armenia, including the speaker of
the Armenian parliament, started developing the theory of "not a patch
of land". Hence, Robert Kocharyan only summed up these statements. And
these statements were rather interesting. First of all, it is evident
that Armenia’s standpoint contains certain threat.

Robert Kocharyan’s words on avoiding active talks, i.e. signing of an
agreement, was addressed to the opposition, and maybe also the part
of the government who were thinking about coercing Robert Kocharyan
using the agreement and making him accept their rules of the game.

Meanwhile, Robert Kocharyan’s statement contained elements of coercion
which are evidently directed against the mediators in the talks for the
settlement of the Karabakh issue. They are known to have stated several
weeks ago that the Armenian parliamentary election cannot obstruct the
negotiations. In fact, Robert Kocharyan shows that it can obstruct. And
the purpose is clear. By questioning the talks the Armenian president,
in fact, wants to extort guarantees of reproduction of government from
the mediators to have them shut an eye on the quality of the election
in 2007. Therefore, Robert Kocharyan is stating that he will not sign
anything until the election in 2007. At the same time, an atmosphere
of not returning the territories is being created in Armenia to boost
the value of the government who return the territories and convince
the mediators that eventually the reproduction of this government is
the right thing.

However, the intention of the Armenian president has another nuance.

After the recent negotiations the co-chairs and Azerbaijan became
more optimistic, and Mammedyarov even stated that Lachin and the
status are not a reason for disagreement. This shows that Azerbaijan
may have finally adopted a milder standpoint. And the standpoing of
the Armenian side over these years has been based on one thing – the
intolerance of Azerbaijan. Yerevan, which was ready to return these
territories for the sake of a status, perhaps does not have a vision
of bringing this formula into being, but is saying that hopefully
Azerbaijan will never accept it. Hence, the optimism of the mediators
and Azerbaijan allows supposing that Azerbaijan has become milder in
its standpoint. In this case, the Armenian side would have to replace
words with actions, and shift the issue of returning territories
to a more practical level. And it would mean sentencing the present
regime led by Robert Kocharyan without pardon. The regime which is
almighty in all the questions does not have hegemony over the issue
of the territories. All Yerevan can do is coercion. And it means a
new promise. In other words, the mediators approve reproduction but
they stipulate that an agreement must be signed after the election in
2007. In this case, the question occurs what’s the difference when
the "sword" of signing will hang above Robert Kocharyan, after the
election or before the election.

The difference is significant. Kocharyan is rather weak before the
election so that he has to "shout" regularly that everything happens
with his approval to overcome his fear. It is not a secret that the
Armenian opposition expects assistance from the outside without
having an idea what he should do for victory, and when it is not
there, 150 thousand people are sent home. Hence, the election is
vital energy for Robert Kocharyan if he can prevent the West from
interferening. After getting this energy he can carry on the tactics
in the talks over Karabakh used since 1998 for both the inside and the
outside. This is a situational solution and does not seem to contain
any prospects. But the problem is that Robert Kocharyan does not have
opponents who work out and pursue far-reaching problems.

There is competition in situational solutions, and here Robert
Kocharyan has not only a psychological advantage over his opponents,
which makes mental exercise obsolete.