Armenian daily predicts fight for influence in Turkmenistan between Russia, West

Haykakan Zhamanak, Yerevan,
22 Dec 06 p 1

"Saparmyrat Nyyazow died"

Turkmen President Saparmyrat Nyyazow’s death is an event of
geopolitical significance though it seems strange. The reason is that
Turkmenistan has enormous gas reserves (forth in the world).

Energy security is a priority problem on the modern geopolitical
agenda as civilization is based on energy. Natural gas occupies a
special place here as it is impossible to transport gas in wagons,
tanks or cars, and pipelines are the only way for gas transportation.

It has turned out that the main pipelines that supply European
consumers with gas run via the territory of Russia or are owned by
Russia. Russia occupies the second place in the world because of its
natural gas reserves. They use this factor to reach a political goal:
to dictate their will to other states. Naturally, the West worries
about this policy very much, as they have already started seriously
thinking that one day Russia can simply stop gas supplies. For this
reason, the West is searching for ways to oppose [Russian President
Vladimir] Putin’s policy. Finding alternative routes for gas supplies
is the cleverest option of this opposition. The construction of a new
gas pipeline bypassing Russia, which will transport Kazakh, Turkmen,
Iranian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe, is the most real option. And
as Iran, which has the largest gas reserves in the world, has a
serious conflict with the West, Turkmenistan remains the only ground
for the fulfilment of this project.

At present, Turkmen gas is mainly exported via the territory of
Russia. Naturally, Russians used to persuade Turkmenbasy not to
support the West’s proposal to construct a new gas pipeline to the
West. And the West was trying to persuade Turkmenbasy to do so. The
latter, having no domestic political or financial problems, took a
neutral position trying to demonstrate his power to the West and
Russia. And the main hero died in such a confused situation. One may
suspect in the context of these global interests that he did not die
of natural causes.

Naturally, a fight for power will start in Turkmenistan. For their
part, the West and Russia will also start fighting to get
Turkmenistan under their sphere of influence. Iran will also take
part in this game. And this is an exclusive opportunity for China to
take part in this big game as well. In brief, in future we will
witness a geopolitical fight in Turkmenistan.

Incidentally, Turkmenistan is not very far from Armenia. Nyyazow’s
regime was an authoritarian one based on one person. That person died
and the future of the state is uncertain. This is the difference
between a democratic government and an authoritarian one.
Turkmenistan’s example will help us understand that democracy is not
a caprice but an issue of state security.