TURKISH FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY ANALYSIS IN 2006 (I)
Huseyin Bagci

The New Anatolian, Turkey
Dec 25 2006

Turkish Foreign policy was experiencing another exciting year in terms
of regional as well as global developments. Turkey’s domestic debate
concerning foreign policy issues showed also a very high quality,
proving that Turkey is a democratic country which has greatly advanced
in comparison to many other countries of the world.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister
Abdullah Gul as "perfect duo" travelled extensively in the world,
participating in several summits abroad, organizing several summits in
Turkey. They have also invited some of the radical Islamist groups,
as well as visiting nearly all the neighboring countries in order
to show that Turkey pursues a "pro-active policy" to play a role
as a regional soft power. At least in the eyes of Turkish public,
the year 2006 is considered as success because it was economically
and politically stable.

Now, let’s make a retrospective view to some foreign policy issues.

Turkish-American relations have greatly improved this year. US
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice visited Turkey and Turkish prime
minister and foreign minister met their counterparts in Washington in
order to develop a new strategic vision paper. Turkey is still not a
"strategic partner " of the US but bilateral relations indeed improved
immensely. In Iraq, the situation at the end of the year is still
not stable and Turkey’s strategic value is now higher and the Kurdish
groups in Northern Iraq feel that US returned to its ""real ally" which
is Turkey. The Kurdish leaders Talabani and Barzani are now no longer
as strong as they used to be and their tone now appears more careful
concerning Turkey. The appointment of the "terrorism coordinators" in
order to control the activities of PKK in particular, General Ralston
as well General Edip Başer have done an important job. It does
not mean that PKK is not active but this coordination showed that PKK
is more under control and the Northern Iraq will not a "base" for it.

Turkey’s relations with Iran and Syria are also in important from
Iraq’s neighbors perspective. Then, all three countries have great
interest on the developments in Iraq. These countries’ interests are
on not changing the Iraqi borders as well as its unitary structure.

However, Iran and Syria have also their influence on certain groups
there. In particular Iran is now more a strategic player in the
region. First time since 26 years, an Iraqi president, Mr. Talabani
visited Iran. Iran’s influence on Shiaite groups is stronger ever.

Turkish-Iranian relations showed also great stability and both sides
were sending high level delegations to each other and President
Ahmedimejad and PM Erdogan met on several occasions. Interestingly,
there is also a positive image of Iran in Turkey compared ten years
ago. Iran’s nuclear program was also supported by the Turkish public
as some survey showed and Iran became one of the most important trade
partners of Turkey in recent years. The visit of the former Iranian
President Khatemi in Istanbul and in Ankara proved how Iran’s image
positively changed. No doubt, the increasing anti-American feelings
in Turkey contributed for this change.

Turkish -Syrian relations also visibly improved. Syria is a key
player in the Middle East peace process as well as developments in
Lebanon. The bombing of Lebanon in summer by Israel was also watched
by Syria and like all the other Arab countries because Hizbollah
is also a problem for Syria. Therefore, Syrian-Israeli relations
remained calm and President Basher Esad taken sometimes strong
positions against Israel but there is not any military action by both
sides. In this respect, Turkey further appeared as "problem solver"
in the region. Turkey’s economic presence certainly welcomed in the
region but not necessarily political presence. However, Turkey’s
"Arab friendly policy" under Premier Erdogan was rewarded when he
was guest of honor during the Arab Summit in Sudan. Turkey’s Middle
East policy and involvement in 2006 was also remarkable and the
governments decision to send troops to Lebanon was despite heavy
domestic opposition showed Turkey’s willingness to contribute for
the peace in the Middle East. Also the EU considers Turkey as a
partner in the Middle East and Lebanon became also a test case for
the EU involvement in the Middle East. Syria is also again there as
an important player and it seems that even Israel discovered EU and
tries to see the EU in the Middle East beside the U.S. presence. No
doubt, the EU is more welcomed in the Middle East now than the U.S.

In this respect, Turkish- Israeli relations have also a further
interesting process. Before Lebanon bombing, the Israeli foreign
minister visited Turkey and tried to improve the misunderstandings
between two states concerning Hamas visit to Turkey. The most
critised foreign policy issue was the invitation of the Hamas
leaders to Turkey and it created also a big problem between some
state institutions. Therefore, PM Erdogan statements concerning
the Palestinian issue created some debate and the recent early
elections call by president Abbas rejected by Erdogan as the only
western politician. Hamas issue remains a thorny issue for Turkish
government and there is no consensus inside of Turkey in this respect.

Turkish-Israeli relations were harmed because of this visit. But,
Israel remains further for Turkey as important as before in particular
in defence sector cooperation as well as in fight against terrorism.

In the 2006 the relations to Caucasian and Central Asian Republic were
also improved slightly. In this respect, Turkish-Russian relations got
another quality and Russia became the most important trade partner
for Turkey. The "chemistry" between Putin and Erdogan continued and
Russia supported Turkish negotiation process with the EU and signal
led to the EU that this process has direct implications on Russian-EU
relations. Indeed, the Russian energy lines made Turkey also an
"energy corridor" and Black Sea became a region of political stability.

Caucasia is still facing some problems and Azerbaijan-Armenian
relations remained unresolved concerning Nagorno-Karabakh bag.

Turkish attitude has been further supporting Armenian view.

Turkish-Armenian relations could not make improvements because of
the Diaspora Armenians who further insist on so-called Genocide issue.

Turkish governments gestures were not perceived enough and the borders
remains closed. No doubt, there was a window of opportunity but not
used by Armenia.

In May 2007 Turkey takes the chair of Black Sea Economic Cooperation
where Armenia is also member. May be there could be some steps further
but Armenia seems to be stubborn in this respect. However, the Minsk
Group was not able to settle the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Could Turkey play a role in it? It looks also very difficult.

Georgia is another Caucasian country where Turkey has economically
strong presence. The visit of Georgian president to Ankara last
week was another sign that Turkey tries to play an arbitrary role
between Georgia and Russia in some issues. This region remains still
problematic but Turkey’s good relations to Russia and Georgia makes
it more careful not to harm one side.Turkey pursues a "balance"
policy in this region.

To sum it up; Turkey’s active policies in the Middle East and in
Caucasia were in general successful in 2006 and Turkey’s presence
felt there strongly. Turkey was indeed a regional player with soft
power. One can debate to which degree Turkey was successful. But no
one could say that Turkey failed there.

(TO BE CONTINUED NEXT WEEK)