EU CAUGHT IN A DIPLOMATIC TWIST OVER MUSLIM STATE

The Irish Times
December 28, 2006 Thursday

Turkey needs help from an honest broker such as Ireland if it is to
get a fair accession hearing from the EU, argues Richard Whelan.

The EU has frozen negotiations in eight of the 35 legislative areas
Turkey must complete for EU accession, and will review annually
Turkey’s compliance with its requirements. The EU has also agreed to
re-examine commitments it made about ending its economic blockade of
Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus.

This is somewhat rich as the EU caused the current impasse by admitting
Cyprus to EU membership in 2004 with its dispute within Cyprus and with
Turkey unresolved. To "thank" the EU, the Greek Cypriot government
has since blocked the EU’s plans with respect to the Turkish part of
Cyprus and insists it will continue to do so.

The need for the Turks to open their ports and airports to Greek
Cypriots was always going to provoke a clash unless the EU met Turkey
halfway with respect to its treatment of the Turkish Cypriots.

In one of the extraordinary ironies of international diplomacy,
the Greek Cypriots – having turned down UN proposals for solving
the Cypriot problem while the Turkish Cypriots accepted them – were
admitted to the EU and placed in a position of having the opportunity
to "derail" Turkish EU accession. This they then promptly set about
doing. Placing Cyprus in that position internationally and within
the EU was a major diplomatic failure by both the UN and the EU,
a failure which has not been addressed since. Unfortunately, the
Turks are now being blamed for these failures as no one challenges
the Greek Cypriots.

Turkey’s application to join the EU may not be derailed, but it is
faring badly and needs help of the kind that a diplomatic intervention
by an independent and respected EU member can provide.

The intractable and unexpected approach of the Greek Cypriots
is supported by other EU members, who are less willing to take
responsibility for turning Turkey away from the West. These countries
include Belgium, the Netherlands and Austria and some sections in
France and Germany. Such opposition to Turkish EU accession has many
motives, including historic European fears of Muslim encroachment,
widespread failure to absorb Muslim minorities due to an absence of
"attitudinal integration", and enlargement fatigue. Others who oppose
Turkish EU accession do so because of concerns over their treatment
of the Kurds, the Armenian issue and their poor record on human
rights. Such opposition assumes Turkey will not change – which is
wrong – and that the Turkey of today would be the Turkey granted EU
accession in 10 or 15 years. This would be anything but the case –
Ireland changed dramatically during its EU accession discussions.

Turkey is unique in Islam: it is not part of the Arab world and has
been involved in a turn to the West for at least 150 years, and has
been seeking EU accession for 43 years. Turkish EU accession would give
the lie to the constant refrain from al-Qaeda and groups such as Hizb
ut Tahrir that the West and Islam are on fundamentally opposed paths.

The EU has much to gain from Turkey. It has successfully confronted
its religious extremists for many years. Its army has a unique role
as the protector of secularism. The EU wants this changed, ignoring
the growing expert view that, perhaps for a transitional period until
democratic norms are fully established, it is a good safeguard in
Muslim states against religious extremists.

If we want continued economic growth in the EU, we need significant
immigration. Turkey can be a safe source of workers that are unlikely
to contain al-Qaedaist cells within them. Refusing Turkey EU accession
would be quite negative. The impact on Turkish opinion and the future
direction of Turkish diplomacy would be bad enough, but the impact
would be catastrophic on moderate Muslims worldwide, confirming the
fundamental conflict between "westernism" and Islam.

This would provide "warm water" for al-Qaeda to swim in.

Ireland on the other edge of the EU, having gone through serious
difficulties in gaining EU accession, should take up the challenge
of championing Turkish EU accession.

Many years ago, Frank Aiken pushed non-proliferation hard at the UN
and that effort, on top of our perceived neutrality, helps make the
Non-Proliferation Treaty a reality. Brian Lenihan snr, much in the news
recently, was conspicuously brave in the EU in pushing recognition of
the Palestine Liberation Organisation. That stance, so lonely then,
is fully accepted by all parties in the Middle East now.

On January 1st, Germany takes up the EU presidency. Angela Merkel, the
German chancellor, has long opposed Turkish EU membership, preferring
a form of privileged association. Without a major diplomatic push by
Dermot Ahern, Turkey’s position will slowly but surely erode. Turkey
is genuine in its western orientation, believing in a convergence
not a clash of civilisation.

The people of the EU need to understand the strategic issues
involved. In this matter, Ireland can fulfil a role as an honest
broker.

If the EU is to eventually say "no" to Turkey, this is best done in
10 or 15 years, having given it full and fair consideration. That
would also be when the negative impact of its rejection would be much
less than it would be now – once the failures in Iraq and the war on
terror were a distant memory.

Richard Whelan is a member of the International Institute for Strategic
Studies and the Belgian Royal Institute for International Relations. He
is the author of Al-Qaedaism: The Threat to Islam, The Threat to the
World, published by Ashfield Press in Ireland in 2005 and by Platin
in Turkey, May 2006. His website is: