Iran becomes regional superpower

12:45|27/ 12/ 2006

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) – Iran may
become one of the top 10 features of the outgoing year for a number of
reasons, including its nuclear dossier and the Holocaust conference,
as well as the anti-Israeli rhetoric of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In short, Iran has made others view it as a regional superpower and
the key player in the Middle East.

Its nuclear program remains the top issue, with good reason, because
it threatens the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

If Iran implements its nuclear program in the proclaimed format,
namely on the basis of its own uranium enrichment technologies, this
will deal a death blow to the NPT. Iran’s program will trigger the
domino effect, encouraging Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to follow
suit.

The bomb is not the issue, as Iran will most likely decide against
creating it. But it will hover merely one step away from it, forcing
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to cover the same distance. Tehran
promises to share its nuclear technology with Kuwait and Syria, which,
taken together with Israel’s 200 nuclear charges, will turn the region
into a nuclear powder keg.

There are reasons to suspect that Iran’s nuclear program is neither
peaceful nor civilian. Its Natanz facility will have 54,000 uranium
enrichment centrifuges, and it has already put into operation two
cascades with 164 centrifuges each. Iran intends to turn on all of the
54,000 centrifuges. What for?

Russian nuclear experts say this number will allow Iran to produce its
own nuclear fuel for 20 nuclear power units. So far, Iran plans to
turn on only one unit, at the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is
being built with Russia’s technical assistance. The unit is expected
to be put into operation in September 2007 and start generating
electricity in November. The construction of the other 19 units is not
planned so far.

On the other hand, the same experts say, given the political will, the
54,000 centrifuges can be used to create five to seven nuclear charges
within two weeks at the most.

Therefore, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cannot issue
guarantees of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program, although
it cannot prove its military goals either. The IAEA has questions to
Tehran which it has refused to answer so far, keeping the world on
nuclear tenterhooks.

The talks on Iran’s nuclear program, as well as endless debates by
experts, political analysts and other specialists, have turned into a
cliffhanger compounded by Iran’s intricate diplomatic embroidery. More
than three months have passed since the UN’s August 31 deadline, by
which Tehran should have stopped work on its first cascade of 164
uranium enrichment centrifuges. Since then, Iran has put into
operation a second cascade and announced the intention to increase the
number of working centrifuges to 3,000 by March 2007.

It is certainly bluffing, as it does not have the necessary capacity
for this. Yet it has played a joke on the UN Security Council no other
country has dared to play before.

Ahmadinejad’s statements to the effect that "Iran has made a crucial
decision and is moving honorably along its chosen path," and that
Tehran would consider any Security Council resolution on sanctions as
a hostile move are most likely just verbal bravado, which the world
has learned to regard calmly.

Tehran fears sanctions, or else why did Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s
Supreme National Security Council, rush to Moscow shortly before the
planned stopover in Moscow by U.S. President George W. Bush? Tehran
thought President Bush and Vladimir Putin would discuss the Iranian
nuclear dossier, and feared that Bush would convince Putin to vote for
harsh sanctions against Iran. Tehran needed Russia’s support, and
Larijani received it. But nothing lasts forever.

Putin later said that Russia’s support to Tehran was aimed at
encouraging it to maintain relations with the IAEA so as to clarify
the nuclear watchdog’s questions and restore the world’s trust in the
peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programs. But it appears that Tehran
is not willing to resume talks, at least not now.

On December 23, the UN Security Council voted on the Iranian
resolution. The permanent members of the council, who form, together
with Germany, a six-country group on Iran, have coordinated sanctions
against Iran. The resolution proposed by the European Trio, which is
negotiating with Iran on behalf of the European Union, differed
radically from Russia’s stand.

Moscow argued that the sanctions should cover only the areas that
worry the IAEA – enrichment-related and reprocessing activities and
work on all heavy water-related projects, and the development of
nuclear weapon delivery systems.

The Security Council heeded the Kremlin’s arguments, but future
developments are almost impossible to predict, especially considering
the "Persian motifs" in Tehran’s foreign policy. One way or another,
Russia’s neighbor, Iran, will continue to play a key role in the
region, and this is the main result of the story with its nuclear
dossier.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may
not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.