Turkish bid to join Europe was a train-wreck waiting to happen

By Quentin Peel, Financial Times
Published: Dec 05, 2006

Turkey’s relations with the European Union seem set to hit a new low
next week, when the 25 EU member states will be asked to partially
suspend membership negotiations because of their unresolved dispute
over the divided island of Cyprus.

This was a train-wreck waiting to happen, ever since Cyprus was
admitted to the EU in 2004 without any settlement between its Greek
and Turkish communities. The danger now is that what might have been
a dispute limited to the decades-old divisions between Greek and
Turkish Cypriots could become a much wider confrontation between the
EU and Turkey. It could sour relations for years.

In former times, such a stand-off might not have been too difficult to
manage. Turkey would simply have turned to its other western ally, the
US, for support. Indeed, Washington might well have put pressure on
Nato allies to compromise, and after a couple of bumpy years, normal
relations would have been resumed.

Today, however, Ankara’s relations with Washington are almost as
difficult as they are with Brussels. Tensions over the Iraq war, and
Turkish fears of rising Kurdish separatism affect- ing its own
Kurdish population, have caused a surge in anti-American feeling.

Turkey has never been a particularly easy ally, either for Europe or
the US.

But it has been one widely recognised as of vital strategic importance
– first as a front line with the former Soviet Union, and now as a
front line with a turbulent Middle East. Yet the latest deterioration
in relations with both Brussels and Washington owes far more to the
carelessness of the western allies than it does to the prickliness of
the Turkish government.

The EU member states have failed to find any way of containing or
resolving the Cyprus problem so that it does not affect wider
relations with Turkey. It was always assumed the prospect of EU
membership would galvanise Greeks and Turks on the island to see
reason and agree on a settlement to end their north-south division. In
the event, the Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of a settlement, while
the Greek Cypriots voted against, resulting in the absurd situation
where the Turkish Cypriots are still excluded and unrecognised, while
the Greeks gain all the EU benefits, and can veto any relaxation
towards their fellow islanders.

Perhaps understandably, the Nicosia government has exploited every
opportunity to do so, including vetoing direct trade links between the
EU and northern Cyprus – a decision taken by the Council of Ministers
before Cyprus joined, and blocked ever since. Equally understandably,
Ankara has therefore refused to extend its customs union with the EU
to include Cyprus – leading to the present confrontation.

Legally, Turkey is in the wrong: it has a legal commitment to admit
Greek Cypriot ships to its ports. Politically, the EU is in the wrong,
in continuing the trade blockade of Turkish Cyprus. Yet no member
state seems prepared to call Nicosia’s bluff. Some – such as France
and Austria – seem happy to see any reason to delay Turkey’s accession
ambitions. Other small member states are sympathetic towards little
Cyprus, if it were seen to be bullied by the strategic interests of
the big ones. Turkey’s traditional supporters, such as Britain and
Germany, seem paralysed by indecision.

Before Turkey’s membership negotiations with the EU were launched on
October 3 2005, it was widely rumoured that both the UK and US put
pressure on the Greek Cypriot government not to block the move, by
threatening to open direct links to Turkish Cyprus if they did so.

Because of the cooling in US-Turkish relations, there is little sign
of such a transatlantic tie-up today. Indeed, as Washington casts
round for a regional solution for Iraq, it may embrace old foes such
as Iran and Syria, but no one seems to be asking Turkey to help. All
the old words in Brussels and Washington about the vital strategic
partnership with Ankara seem to have been quietly forgotten. Short
memories will come back to haunt us.