RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ______________
RFE/RL Iran Report
vol. 10, issue 2
Monday, January 15, 2007
A weekly review of RFE/RL reporting and analysis about Iran.
REFORMISTS SAY THAT RIGHT DESTINED TO SPLIT
By Vahid Sepehri
Iran — Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, undated
Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (in file photo) is regarded by
some as part of a "new fundamentalist current"
(Fars)
January 15, 2007 (RFE/RL) — Iran’s conservatives regularly maintain
that they are united in the broad principles they espouse; just as
regularly, reformists argue that there is a persistent division on the
right. Could the right-wing electoral defeat in December divide
conservatives once and for all?
Iranian conservatives frequently rally around principles that include
the "fundamental" values of Iran’s polity, its Islamic credentials,
and the paramount position of the supreme leader, currently Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. It is among the reasons they rarely refer to themselves
as "conservatives," but rather "fundamentalists" or sometimes
"principled" or "value-oriented" (arzesh-gara) politicians — to
highlight their concern for certain principles, not just power.
Reformists contend that there is a persistent division between more
radical right-wing forces associated with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
and his allies, on one hand, and pragmatists or traditionalists
associated with senior clerics like Expediency Council Chairman
Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, on the other. Signs of that division
include the failure to field a joint presidential candidate in 2005,
and more recently, the existence of two conservative lists in the
December 15 municipal elections.
Reformists say that municipal voting and balloting for the influential
Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that oversees the supreme
leader’s office, marked a repudiation of government radicalism and
support for moderation.
Azar Mansuri, a deputy head of the reformist Islamic Iran
Participation Front, was quoted by ISNA on January 6 saying that
"moderate conservatives clarified their divide with radical
conservatives." She added that a "third current" of pragmatic
conservatism is taking shape, and said recent elections allowed them
to "clarify their frameworks". Mansuri said that when the Ahmadinejad
government came to power in 2005, "this divide in the fundamentalist
faction became clearer [with] every day." She predicted that the rift
would "continue in the future" if some "singular" conduct by radicals
persisted — the latter a presumed reference to presidential tirades
and confrontational discourse, as well as a purported bid by radicals
to take control of all state institutions.
Mohammad Salamati — the secretary-general of the left-leaning,
reformist Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organization — said according
to ISNA just a few days later that such a "third current" exists and
began to take shape around the 2005 presidential election.
Three Or More…
Commentators tend to leave references to such a "current" general,
rather than identify its personalities or boundaries.
But Salamati speculated that the "third current" would have to form
its own political party — thus formalizing divisions within the
conservative camp. "Contradictions" in the conservative camp are
"essential," he said, "and cannot be resolved easily." Salamati went
on to claim that "the faction known as ‘fundamentalist’ is not
united…and [that] there are at least three political groups in that
current" with each "going its own way" with its own "material and
organizational interests."
Right-wing journalist Masud Dehnamaki warned in statements quoted by
ISNA on January 9 that four broad "currents" could emerge if the
political right fails to unite. He described them as a reformist
front; traditionalist conservatives; what he called a "new
fundamentalist current" associated with Tehran’s mayor, Mohammad Baqer
Qalibaf, and the secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezai;
and, finally, supporters of President Ahmadinejad and his
government. He predicted Ahmadinejad supporters would suffer if they
moved away from the conservative mainstream.
Conservatives tried a unified approach in their bid to nominate a
single presidential candidate in 2005 — bringing elders together to
find a consensual candidate. That effort failed amid a flurry of
reports on the existence, nonexistence, or dissolution of various
formal and informal councils of "fundamentalist" elders.
New Election Pressure
The situation could repeat itself as conservatives face the next set
of parliamentary elections. A supporter of one of the more successful
lists in the recent municipal elections, Mujtaba Shakeri, a supporter
of the Great Coalition of Fundamentalists (Etelaf-i bozorg-i
Osulgarayan), has suggested that a conservative list for the
parliamentary elections be formed around that of his
group. Predictably, another prominent conservative, Mariam Behruzi,
was quoted by ILNA on January 8 as cautioning that negotiations on
that topic would have to include all members of a key coalition of
more traditional conservatives: the Front of Followers of the Path of
the Imam and Leadership. Behruzi added that she knew nothing of any
"group called Fundamentalist Trustees" (Motamedin-i Osulgara)
seemingly trying to unite conservatives.
Mohammad Hashemi, the brother of ex-President Hashemi-Rafsanjani and a
member of the centrist Executives of Construction, muddied the waters
further. ISNA reported on January 8 that he conceded that there are
conservative divisions but added that such differences are so abundant
that political life is now characterized by the proliferation of
groups — reformist and conservative — that must inevitably form
electoral coalitions. Hashemi warned that voters are no longer paying
attention to factions or groups but instead are voting for familiar
personalities. He said it is unclear whether conservative divisions
are "fundamental" or "strategic."
A newly elected member of parliament for Tehran, Hasan Ghafurifard,
claimed that several groups — supporters of Tehran Mayor Qalibaf, the
Front of the Followers of the Path of the Imam and Leadership, and
government supporters — are broadly "convergent" but merely disagree
on "specifics," ISNA reported on January 6. Ghafurifard warned against
overstating those differences. He went on to argue that phrases like
"traditionalist right," "leftist," and "traditionalist" are "Western
labels" that are "not in keeping with the realities" of Iranian
politics. He said the labels "fundamentalist and reformist" are simply
"the…most suitable names these factions have chosen for themselves."
Greater Malaise
Divisions within the conservative tent may be due to a larger malaise
over how conservatives can reconcile their vision of Iran with what
Iranian voters want. Reformers sometimes argue that the electorate has
changed since the 1997 election of Mohammad Khatami to the
presidency. The effort to attract voter support might have contributed
to a conservative split: Some conservatives appear to seek the
legitimacy that votes confer, and might regard radicalism and
revolutionary rhetoric as deterring voters. Reformers claim that one
of their ploys is to hide behind appealing titles that blur their
conservative identity — such as "Developers" in the last
parliamentary elections, and more recently the Sweet Scent of Service,
the list associated with Ahmadinejad.
"Fundamentalism, as the supreme leader has explained in this respect,
has specific definitions."
Publicly, there is unity — as stated by Mohammad Nabi Habibi’s
Islamic Coalition Society, which is a member of the Front of Followers
of the Path of the Imam and Leadership. On January 3, according to
ISNA, Habibi denied that younger "fundamentalists" and "the
traditionalist right" are divided. He said that "fundamentalism, as
the Supreme Leader has explained in this respect, has specific
definitions," and went on to claim that he does not know a single
"person or formation that wishes to act outside that framework."
The daily "Etemad-i Melli" on January 11 called Habibi’s Islamic
Coalition the "backbone" of the traditionalist Front of Followers of
the Path of the Imam and Leadership. And the paper noted that the
Front of Followers did not support the pro-Ahmadinejad list in
December’s elections. It speculated that the recent announcement of
unspecified changes in tactics by the party might even herald the
party moving away from the government.
2007/01/4f47cee5-cab8-433a-9d67-1e9a522d2d85.html
U.S. EXPERT PREDICTS OIL-EXPORT CRISIS WITHIN A DECADE
Iran — oil refinery, Lavan Isl, May 04
Iran’s Lavan oil refinery (file photo)
(AFP)
January 12, 2007 (RFE/RL) — Economic geographer Roger Stern has
predicted in a recent study in a U.S. National Academy of Sciences
publication that Iran might run out of oil for export by 2015. Stern,
a researcher at John Hopkins University, spoke with RFE/RL
correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari about what this might mean.
RFE/RL: You’ve said in your study that Iran could run out of oil for
export as soon as eight years from now. How is that possible in a
country that has huge oil reserves?
Roger Stern: It’s a good question, and I must say that my results
surprised even me. But the having of an oil reserve and the getting of
that oil from the ground are very different things. The first is just
an accident of nature, and the second is really an economic
activity. You might recall that the Soviet Union, for example, was
very amply blessed with natural resources yet had great difficulty in
lifting oil in the 1980s. So it’s possible to have a resource and yet
to manage it badly. And the analogy between Iran and the Soviet Union
is pretty strong: Iran has the five-year plans, the state-planned
economy, [and] the very high participation of the state in the
economy, although it’s partially privatized. So it’s those obstacles
that are driving Iranian exports down.
No Longer Overproducing
RFE/RL: What are the signs of this potential crisis and decline in oil
export?
Stern: Iran has, like all other members of the OPEC cartel, a
production quota. Some OPEC members are chronic overproducers — that
is, they cheat — and some can’t ever seem to meet their production
targets. Since the end of the Iran-Iraq War [1980-88], for 90 percent
of the time, Iran has been a "cheater." That is, they overproduce
their OPEC quota by some amount. About two years ago, the amount by
which they exceeded that quota began to fall. And then 19 months ago,
they went under quota; and they’ve been under quota and falling
basically ever since. So it’s a very anomalous situation for
Iran. That’s an indication that something inside the republic has
changed with respect to their oil production.
RFE/RL: You said that this situation is a result of mismanagement of
the oil industry. Could you please elaborate?
Stern: There are three basic components to Iran’s — what I call —
its export crisis. And the first is a failure to reinvest in the
industry. Oil is like any other heavy industry — a maintenance of the
infrastructure is very important. In oil it’s even more important,
because every oil well that’s ever been drilled declines a little bit
from one year to the next. So if you want to keep your production
level, let’s say, you have to find a little bit of new oil via new
well-drilling in order to replace the natural decline of a well.
A man pumping gas in Tehran (Fars file photo)So Iran has failed to do
this, and it’s failed for a couple of reasons: It’s very hostile to
foreign firms working in the country; and secondly, the state oil
company in Iran doesn’t have control of its own revenues. A second big
category of problems are the demand subsidies within Iran. Fuel is
very cheap; I think a liter of fuel in Iran is nine U.S. cents
($0.09). So, as a result, demand is exploding. So you could say that
Iran is burning the candle at both ends — it’s both producing less
and less, and it’s consuming more and more.
Policy Options?
RFE/RL: You’ve predicted that as a result of these two trends, Iran
will run out of oil for export in just eight years. What if Iran
changes its policies?
Stern: Iran could change its policies and reduce its subsidies and
begin to reinvest and change that projection that I make, but the
trend that they’re on looks like [by] 2015 — that exports could go to
zero by that time. Iran is its own worst enemy in this petroleum
crisis, and it could change its mind. But it’s had 20 years since the
[1979 Islamic] revolution to do that and its behavior now is
consistent with that over the last 20 years, so I don’t anticipate a
change in policy.
RFE/RL: Could that mean that Iran is really in need of energy and that
it has a genuine and legitimate reason to pursue a nuclear program, as
Iranian officials have said many times?
Stern: I would say that within the distorted economic logic that
prevails in Iran, there is a legitimate need — but only because the
Russians are basically financing the nuclear reactor for Iran by
selling this reactor at a very, very cheap price. If normal economic
reasoning applied in Iran, what Iran would do to generate more
electric power would be to modernize its gas-turban generation
base. Most of Iran’s electric power comes from gas generation, a
little bit from oil, and a very small bit from hydro[-electric
power]. But Iran has the same reinvestment problems in power
generation as it does in oil — that is, the product is subsidized, so
the power generation firms can’t make money so they’re not
reinvesting. So here comes Russia willing to sell Iran a nuclear
reactor at maybe one-fourth [of] the world price. So with no other,
better alternative, that is an appealing alternative to Iran. It
doesn’t mean, nor do I believe, that Iran does not have an intention
to develop nuclear weapons.
Room For Maneuver
RFE/RL: What does this mean for the U.S. and other countries that are
putting pressure on Iran over its sensitive nuclear activities?
Stern: If exports decline as I project, and if price fails to rise to
compensate for the decline in the quantity that can be exported, then
that would — in my opinion — be a real political constraint on the
regime, whose popularity is really quite dependent on the distribution
of these monopoly oil profits that the state oil firm collects. Iran’s
government relies on oil exports for somewhere between 70 and 80
percent of its revenues, so this a real problem.
RFE/RL: Some Iranian officials have in the past said Tehran could use
oil as a weapon in case of increasing international pressure over the
country’s nuclear program. How do you see that?
Stern: I think that that’s laughable. If your government relies on oil
export for 80 percent of it revenue, by cutting off oil to the world,
basically the regime would be cutting its own throat. Iran exports a
little under 2 1/2 million barrels [of oil] a day; the world consumes
85 million barrels. So while the disappearance of that amount of oil
would definitely have an impact on price, the world would not stop, it
would simply pay a higher price; Iran’s government would stop.
01/dc93e2c3-0923-4575-84e9-808c49eeb513.html
FORMER OFFICIALS, REFORMISTS CRITICIZE NUCLEAR POLICY
By Golnaz Esfandiari
Iran — logo of Iran’s Islamic Mosharekat party- a leading Iran
reformist party The logo of Mosharekat, Iran’s largest reformist party
(courtesy photo)
January 10, 2007 (RFE/RL) — Despite last month’s UN Security Council
resolution imposing limited sanctions on Iran over its controversial
nuclear program, the country’s leaders say they will continue their
nuclear work with great determination. At the same time, a growing
number of voices inside Iran are calling for a change in Iran’s
nuclear policy.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, during a speech in Tehran
on January 8, described Iran’s nuclear program as a "native
achievement" and "a source of pride" for Iran and the Islamic world.
"It is expected that the international and domestic pressure will
increase on Tehran as the two-month UN deadline for Iran to curb its
nuclear activities draws closer."
‘Indisputable Right’
"[The Iranian nation] will not abandon its right and the country’s
officials have no right to deprive the nation of its right," he said.
His comments came some three weeks after the adoption of a UN
resolution that put sanctions on Iran in an attempt to get Tehran to
curb its nuclear program.
Iranian officials have rejected the resolution as "illegal" and said
that they will continue their nuclear program with speed and
determination.
Officials have also dismissed UN Security Council sanctions as
insignificant and said they will not affect Tehran’s nuclear
activities.
Parliament Concerned
Four days after the adoption of the UN resolution, the Iranian
parliament passed an urgent bill that obliges the government to
"review its relations with the UN nuclear energy agency."
Parliament speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel said Iran should react to the
international pressure.
"The parliament warns the government not to limit the country’s
authority in the framework of the [IAEA] and show a proportionate and
timely reaction to the pressure on Iran," he said.
Parliament speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel (Fars file photo)But there is
also growing concern about the costs of Iran’s defiance and what is
termed as the inefficiency of the official stances. In recent weeks a
number of former officials have warned that the UN’s December 23
resolution could result in economic sanctions that could severely
affect Iran’s economy.
The Security Council has given Iran a two-month deadline to suspend
its uranium-enrichment program or face tougher measures. So far there
are no signs that Tehran will comply.
Unhappy Reformers
On January 3 Hossein Moussavian, a former member of Iran’s nuclear
negotiating team, called for renewed diplomacy in the nuclear
standoff. Moussavian said Iran has no choice but to return to the
negotiating table.
Reformist legislators have also spoken out and blamed President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad’s government for failing to prevent UN sanctions and
causing tensions by organizing a Holocaust conference.
Iran’s largest reformist party — the Islamic Iran Participation
Front, or Mosharekat — has also voiced similar concerns. The party
last week called for a return to the nuclear policy followed by the
previous reformist government in order to prevent a further
deterioration of the nuclear crisis.
Mosharekat said Iran should return to international negotiations,
create trust in its nuclear program, and refrain from what it called
"adventurist" policies. It also said Tehran should talk to all UN
Security Council permanent members, including the United States, over
the nuclear issue.
Others, including a group of religious nationalist activists, have
also publicly criticized the country’s nuclear policy.
Focus Is Only On Nuclear Issue
The group — which includes several former government officials —
said in a recent statement that Tehran’s "vain" persistence on the
right to have a nuclear program has damaged the country. The statement
added that Iran has other rights — including human rights and the
right to development and welfare — that are being ignored.
Iranian officials often described the nuclear program as the country’s
most important issue and "Nuclear Energy is our indisputable right"
has become a major catch phrase of the government.
Ali Akbar Moinfar, a former oil minister and a signatory to the
statement, told Radio Farda on December 25 that officials should give
up "slogans" and act wisely.
"Unfortunately foreign countries and also inside the country, everyone
has focused on the nuclear issue," Moinfar said. "It seems that
people’s real issues have been forgotten. Human rights are the most
important thing for the people of Iran. Our main point is that
people’s] rights should be officially recognized and [respected]."
Observers believe the growing criticism is unlikely to have an
immediate impact on the country’s decision makers.
More Than A Scrap?
On January 9 the conservative daily "Joumhuri Eslami" said in an
editorial that those who have criticized the country’s current nuclear
policies and called for a return to past policies do not realize that
they are giving a lever to "foreigners" who think they can make Iran
back down by passing a resolution.
The daily acknowledged that the UN resolution is damaging for Iran,
adding that it should neither be exaggerated nor called "a piece of
scrap" in an indirect reference to comments made by Ahmadinejad.
The daily, which is said to reflect the views of Iran’s supreme
leader, also openly criticized Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric on the nuclear
issue and advised him not to comment on it during his provincial trips
and to leave such commenting to those who are in charge of the case.
Gholamreza Aqazadeh, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization,
said last week that Iran will continue its cooperation with the
IAEA. But he said a committee with Iran’s National Security Council is
reviewing ties with the IAEA.
Meanwhile, it is expected that the international and domestic pressure
will increase on Tehran as the two-month UN deadline for Iran to curb
its nuclear activities draws closer.
For example, on January 9 the United States banned all transactions
with a major Iranian bank, Bank Sepah, because Washington said the
bank has actively supported Iran’s ballistic-missile program.
(Radio Farda broadcaster Mossadegh Katouzian contributed to this
report.)
e/2007/01/c1ddb942-8e8d-4b7e-aa41-5d7139c27a68.htm l
POWER CUTS IN AN ENERGY-RICH LAND SPARK PROTESTS
By Vahid Sepehri
Iran — snow in Tehran, 23Dec2006
Snow in Tehran on January 1
(Fars)
January 10, 2007 (RFE/RL) — Despite its wealth of oil and natural-gas
reserves, Iran has faced a gas crunch as people turn up the heat this
winter.
Partial or total energy cutoffs were reported in 11 provinces, with
residents of colder western provinces worst affected, and exports to
Turkey were suspended for five days.
The National Iranian Gas Company issued a statement on January 2
warning of shortages and asking Iranians — including Tehran residents
— to moderate their consumption or face cuts.
There are energy shortages in 11 provinces, with partial or total cuts
that include Kurdistan in western Iran, the northwestern Zanjan
Province, and the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan.
Lawmaker Fakhredin Heidari asked President Ahmadinejad whether he
would respond similarly if it were his family and that of the oil
minister spending nights in the cold.
Officials have blamed rising consumption and delays in unspecified
projects for the shortages. Deputy Oil Minister Hasan Kasai told ILNA
on January 1 that gas consumption rose by 45 percent over last winter.
Authorities have in the past lamented Iranians’ wasteful use of
natural gas, electricity, gasoline, and water. And some have blamed
the problem on state subsidies that keep those prices low.
Iran also suspended natural-gas exports completely to Turkey on
January 3-7, after determining that its 40-day reduction was not
enough, Radio Farda and AFP reported.
Iran signed a deal in 1996 to supply up to 10 billion cubic meters of
gas a year to Turkey by 2007. Turkey has been receiving natural gas
since 2001 through a pipeline running from Tabriz in northwestern Iran
to Ankara.
Public Anger
In western Iran, the energy cuts led to protests. In Saqqez, in
Kurdistan Province, residents gathered outside the district governor’s
office on January 4 to protest eight days without sufficient gas
supplies.
>From there, some 200 protesters went to the city council, then to the
town’s central square, by which time they numbered about 1,000,
according to advarnews.com. Protesters demanded that the government
resolve such fundamental problems instead of attending to its
high-profile nuclear program.
Fakhredin Heidari, the parliamentary representative for Saqqez and
Baneh, wrote to President Mahmud Ahmadinejad on January 3 to complain
about the situation.
Heidari reminded Ahmadinejad that on his last visit to Saqqez, the
president responded to public outcry by promising that shortages would
not happen again "this year." The lawmaker recounted the death of a
family of five due to a faulty heater that they were forced to use
because of a lack of gas.
Heidari asked whether Ahmadinejad would respond similarly if it were
his family and that of the oil minister who had to spend the night in
the cold.
He also accused gas authorities of "giving away" natural gas to states
who side with Iran’s opponents in the nuclear standoff, leaving none
for Iranians.
About Fairness
Heidari struck a note that the president himself has played in many of
his speeches since taking office 1 1/2 years ago — that of social
justice. The lawmaker questioned the justice of a situation in which
"the negligence of some officials" leaves Saddez residents "shivering
in the cold" or burning to death in their homes.
Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh (Fars file photo)Lawmaker
Amin Shabani, from Sanandaj in Kurdistan Province, argued on January 5
that Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh should be questioned in
parliament if the gas shortages continue — particularly in the
country’s colder western provinces. He said many western areas had
experienced weeks of gas shortages or cutoffs.
Shabani said that such areas are living "entirely the opposite" of
Ahmadinejad’s reported campaign pledge to bring "oil to the people’s
tables" and oil wealth into Iranian homes. He said gas exports should
be cut until domestic needs are met. He invited Vaziri-Hamaneh to
visit Kurdistan "one day" and — in his words — "feel the cold…and
properly answer how helpless people are to live" in near-freezing
temperatures without gas, gasoline, or oil.
The crisis appears to have eased for now. Shabani said recently that
there are currently sufficient supplies for the city of Sanandaj, and
intermittent but less severe cuts in Saqqez and Baneh, according to
ILNA on January 8.
But Shabani also warned ominously of a "100-percent possibility that
with another cold wave, people in cold regions will face a fuel
crisis."
He accused the oil minister of fulfilling just half of his pledges to
help avoid fuel shortages.
Shabani also took up the challenge to the Ahmadinejad administration,
saying the public expected a government that "takes pride
in…understanding issues close-up to have traveled to the region" as
the crisis unfolded, ILNA reported.
07/01/f3e4fa38-88f4-4b8a-87da-a2f5d76b457e.html
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