EUobserver.com
January 17, 2007 Wednesday 5:32 PM GMT

[Comment] Bulgaria is test case for Turkey’s place in EU

by Julian Popov

EUOBSERVER / COMMENT – Despite all doubts about its readiness and the
restrictions placed on the movement of labour, Bulgaria is finally a
member of the European Union. We can now stop wondering about whether
or not Bulgaria complies with pre-accession requirements and start
looking ahead.

Many enlargement sceptics think that Bulgaria’s membership is a
mistake. Others believe that Bulgaria has earned its place at the
table – Bulgarians feel proud of their ethnic tolerance and for
saving Jews in the Second World War, the country was an island of
calm during the Balkan upheavals in the 1990s, and it has shown an
impressive recent record of budgetary control and strong economic
growth for almost a decade now.

But there is another benefit that Bulgaria’s EU membership brings –
and that is a closer understanding of the social, economic and
demographic issues that confront Turkey in its aim to join the EU.

The future place of Turkey in Europe is by no means clear. In the
run-up to the French presidential elections nobody is expecting a
calm debate on the further enlargement of the Union. Sarkozy indeed
started his campaign by once again stressing his position that Turkey
does not have a place in Europe.

On the other hand, to boost support for Turkish membership in the EU,
a government in Ankara with a secure mandate could soften a notch its
position on Cyprus, accelerate its privatisation programme which is
unlikely to move forward before elections and make some concessions
towards political representation of the Kurdish minority, women’s
participation in education and employment, foreign investment and
even historical controversy such as the Armenian genocide.

On the security side, continuing tension in the Middle East and
Europe’s problems with Islamic terrorism at home will strengthen the
arguments for integrating a Muslim, if secular, state into the Union.

Turkish minority

What has all this got to do with Bulgaria?

Bulgaria could be taken as a test case for Turkish membership of the
EU. To start with, 10% of the Bulgarian population is Turkish, and
these are not German-style guest workers but an indigenous population
that has lived there for centuries.

Bulgaria has a Turkish political party, the Movement for Rights and
Freedoms (MRF), which has wielded power as a coalition member with
cabinet positions in two Governments since 2001. The current
Bulgarian coalition government was in fact formed under the mandate
of the MRF.

After the next European Parliament elections, there will be several
newly elected MEPs representing indigenous Turkish communities in the
European parliament.

Though well represented politically, Bulgaria’s Turkish population,
like Turkey’s, is predominantly rural, poor and heavily involved in
the production of tobacco. The more successful members of Bulgaria’s
Turkish business community are strong in the construction sector and
have benefited from public sector contracts over which the Turkish
party has influence, feeding the wrath of Bulgaria’s new racist
nationalist party, Ataka.

Bulgarian experience cannot offer solutions for the Kurdish issue,
the Cyprus question or the worries related to the border with Iraq.

There are however many similarities. Bulgaria and Turkey have similar
economies – moving out of agricultural dependency, without domestic
natural resources, supported by remittances and investment from
economic migrants to West.

Many similarities

Bulgaria is about 10 times smaller, but its GDP and GNI per capita
are very similar to those of Turkey, as is the economic growth in
recent years. (Though Turkey has to still prove that it is capable of
sustaining its growth over a longer period of time.) In both
countries the unemployment rate is around 10%, female life expectancy
is the same, Transparency International’s corruption index ranks the
countries close together (Bulgaria in 57th and Turkey in 60th place
for 2006).

In the 2006 Index of Economic Freedom the two countries score
differently (Bulgaria – 64, Turkey – 85), but in terms of government
intervention and regulations they have the same score (2.5 and 4
respectively).

Bulgaria is the EU member with the largest and only indigenous Muslim
population – 12%, with only France, with around 9%, near this figure.
If Turkey becomes a member of the EU then the Muslim population of
the EU will become 13-14% – roughly the proportion of the Muslim
population in Bulgaria.

It is just possible that having Bulgaria, with its Turkish and
Bulgarian Muslim minorities, politically and economically integrated
within the European Union might reassure the sceptics about Turkish
membership. Or might stiffen their opposition.

Julian Popov is a writer and journalist and a consultant on Eastern
Europe based in London. He is Chairman of the Board of the Bulgarian
School of Politics which trains senior civil servants and political
leaders from the Balkan region.