Haykakan Zhamanak, Yerevan,
18 Jan 2007 p 1

President, defence minister frontrunners in May polls

The agenda of Armenia’s domestic political life will not change much
in future. It is developing around two persons – [President] Robert
Kocharyan and [Defence Minister] Serzh Sarkisyan. Will they manage to
divide power peacefully? If yes, how will they do this?

The opposition de facto has not influenced this scenario in any way.
On the contrary, the number of those involved in government
infighting is on the rise. What is the gist of the activity of the
groups in power? For instance, the Prosperous Armenia Party [PAP] has
one mission: to support Robert Kocharyan’s government and preserve
him de facto in his status of Armenian president for one more term.
Anyway, it is very much likely that Kocharyan is planning to stay for
another presidential term in the status of prime minister and then
return to the post of president.

The next political project is one of Serzh Sarkisyan’s, who does not
want to lose his de facto power and is planning to become the
president of Armenia. And in fact, all those who are going to vote
for the RPA [the Republican Party of Armenia; one of the two parties
in the ruling coalition] during the forthcoming parliamentary
election will also vote in favour of Serzh Sarkisyan becoming the
president, and those who are going to vote for the Prosperous Armenia
Party will also vote for Robert Kocharyan becoming the prime
minister. This is the only reality. This is the point of the
parliamentary election that will be held in May.

As there is no other problem on the agenda of the election, one of
the abovementioned persons will lose and the other will win in the
election, or a draw will be registered. All the remaining forces
taking part in the election will become the background of this event.
Certainly, this does not mean that the real opposition should boycott
the election. But there is no point in taking part in the election
without changing its agenda. This is the priority task of the real
opposition. But the fact is that today’s opposition has not managed
to do that because part of the opposition is protecting Gagik [PAP
leader Gagik Tsarukyan] from Serzh and another part is protecting
Serzh from Gagik. Accidental persons within the opposition should be
removed in order to change the abovementioned agenda.