Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part B (Russia)
January 19, 2007 Friday

GOODBYE, ARMENIA;
Russia’s last ally in the CIS becomes part of the West’s geopolitical
project

by: Viktor Yadukha

Russia’s influence in the Caucasus is about to fall another notch;
Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Armenia are set to sign an agreement
on building a railroad connecting Kars, Akhalkalaki, Tbilisi, and
Baku. The railroad will become an element of the transport corridor
between China and Europe, bypassing Russia and reducing Russian
influence in the region.

Georgian Economic Development Minister Georgy Arveladze promised on
January 18 to sign an agreement on building a railroad connecting
Kars, Akhalkalaki, Tbilisi, and Baku. The governments of Georgia,
Azerbaijan, and Turkey verified this agreement on January 13. Deputy
Foreign Minister of Armenia Gegam Garibjanjan announced in Yerevan
yesterday that Armenia is prepared to join the project and open its
border with Turkey even though the two countries don’t have
diplomatic relations. The railroad will become an element of the
transport corridor between China and Europe, bypassing Russia and
reducing Russian influence in the region.

Tbilisi is already discussing details of the future project.
"Reconstruction of the railroad between Tbilisi and Akhalkalaki will
hopefully begin this year," Arveladze said. "Construction of the
extension from Akhalkalaki to the Turkish border will follow."
Referring to the Russian transport blockade of Georgia, the minister
said that the railroad was going to open a new route to Europe via
Turkey for Georgia. Armenia, cut off the rest of the world by hostile
Azerbaijan and blocked by Georgia, regards the project as vital as
well. According to Garibjanjan, the railroad across Armenia between
Akhalkalaki and Kars built in the Soviet era has been idle since the
disintegration of the USSR. "Open the border, and the railroad will
be back in business the following day," he said.

Importance of the railroad in question is not restricted to regional
considerations alone. It will become a part of the transport corridor
between Europe, the Caucasus, and Asia. Initiated by the European
Union and United States in the mid-1990s, the project also includes
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum, and Trans-Caspian
pipelines. Construction of the Caucasus part of the railroad will
begin in 2007 and take two years or so. Annual traffic volume of the
road between Kars and Baku after that is expected to amount to almost
20 million tons. Engineering work began in 2001. Last August, Turkish
Minister of Transportation Binali Yuldyrym proclaimed China and
Kazakhstan joining the project.

Experts view the latest developments as an effect of the efforts
undertaken by the United States determined to smooth out friction
between countries of the Caucasus and withdraw this strategic region
from the orbit of Russian influence. "That’s what the West is really
after when it promotes Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution, forces
Turkey to acknowledge the genocide of the Armenians, and supports
Tbilisi’s anti-Russian policy," said Alexander Skakov, department
director at the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies. "The railroad
will tie Armenia into the project now, and Armenia is Moscow’s only
ally in the region."

The US Eximbank initially volunteered as the project sponsor, but the
Armenian lobby in Congress pulled some strings in December and
President George W. Bush forbade the bank to participate in the
project. (Armenia did not want the United States to finance a project
it was not participating in.) US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
Matthew Bryza broke Turkey and Armenia’s resistance soon afterwards.
According to our sources, the American money was transferred via
other countries. Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili
announced on January 10 that money for the project could be raised
outside the United States. Arveladze said yesterday that Georgia
would borrow $300 million for the railroad from Azerbaijan.

Moscow is not so generous in its offers to Armenia. When we asked
some experts, they could only recall a project for a gas pipeline
from Iran to Armenia, in the event that Georgia made gas transit via
Russian pipelines impossible. But Gazprom interfered and eventually
killed the project, and Yerevan has never forgotten that. "Armenia is
putting more distance between itself and Russia," Skakov said.
"Simple realities are driving Yerevan to start looking for its place
in Western geopolitics."

Source: RBC Daily, January 19, 2007, p. 2

Translated by A. Ignatkin