Europeans fear US attack on Iran as nuclear row intensifies

· Transatlantic rift emerges over how to handle crisis
· America builds up its naval forces in the Gulf

Ian Traynor in Brussels and Jonathan Steele
Wednesday January 31, 2007
The Guardian

Senior European policy-makers are increasingly worried that the US
administration will resort to air strikes against Iran to try to
destroy its suspect nuclear programme.
As transatlantic friction over how to deal with the Iranian impasse
intensifies, there are fears in European capitals that the nuclear
crisis could come to a head this year because of US frustration with
Russian stalling tactics at the UN security council. "The clock is
ticking," said one European official. "Military action has come back
on to the table more seriously than before.
The language in the US has changed."

As the Americans continue their biggest naval build-up in the Gulf
since the start of the Iraq war four years ago, a transatlantic rift
is opening up on several important aspects of the Iran dispute.
The Bush administration will shortly publish a dossier of charges of
alleged Iranian subversion in Iraq. "Iran has steadily ramped up its
activity in Iraq in the last three to four months. This applies to the
scope and pace of the ir operations. You could call these brazen
activities," a senior US official said in London yesterday.

Although the Iranians were primarily in Shia areas, they were not
confined to them, the US source said, implying that they had formed
links with Sunni insurgents and were helping them with booby-trap
bombs aimed at Iraqi and US forces, new versions of the "improvised
explosive devices".

Senior members of the US Congress have raised concerns that the US
will attack Iran in retaliation for its alleged activities in
Iraq. The official said there were no plans for "cross-border
operations" from Iraq to Iran. But he said: "We don’t want a
progressively more confident and bolder Iran … The perception that
Iran is ascendant in the region and that there are no limits to what
Iran can do – that’s what is destabilising."

The Americans and Europeans have sought to maintain a common front on
the nuclear issue for the past 30 months, with the European troika of
Britain, France and Germany running failed negotiations with the
Iranians and the Americans tacitly supporting them.

But diplomats in Brussels and those dealing with the dispute in Vienna
say a fissure has opened up between the US and western Europe on three
crucial aspects – the military option; how and how quickly to hit Iran
with economic sanctions already decreed by the UN security council;
and how to deal with Russian opposition to action against Iran through
the security council.

"There’s anxiety everywhere you turn," said a diplomat familiar with
the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. "The
Europeans are very concerned the shit could hit the fan."

A US navy battle group of seven vessels was steaming towards the Gulf
yesterday from the Red Sea, part of a deployment of 50 US ships,
including two aircraft carriers, expected in the area in weeks.

"No path is envisaged by the EU other than the UN path," the EU’s
foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, told the Guardian yesterday. "The
priority for all of us is that Iran complies with UN security council
resolutions."

The IAEA chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, called at the weekend for a
"timeout" in the worsening confrontation in an attempt to enable both
sides to save face and climb down. But the Americans rejected the
proposal and European officials involved in the dispute also believe
the Iranians cannot be trusted to stick to a deal.

Despite recurring tensions on the Middle East between the US and
France, the French are the most hawkish of the Europeans on Iran and
are said to back a US drive to tighten the noose on Iran’s president,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The populist and recalcitrant leader is perceived to have been
weakened recently, in part because of a mishandling of the nuclear
row. "One group of western countries thinks it’s a good time to step
up the pressure on Ahmadinejad. All options are on the table. Others
are worried we might be stumbling into a war," said another diplomat
familiar with the dispute.