Kosovo set on path to independence as envoy sketches out final chapter in
Balkan conflict
· Serbia rejects blueprint as violation of sovereignty
· Russia opposes UN vote to create EU protectorate
Ian Traynor, Europe editor
Saturday February 3, 2007
The Guardian
The majority Albanian province of Kosovo was put on the path to
independent statehood yesterday by an international blueprint that
redraws the map of the Balkans and effectively strips Serbia of
sovereignty over a region it regards as its Jerusalem.
The plan was presented to and rejected by Serbian leaders in Belgrade
and also given to the ethnic Albanian Kosovo leadership in Pristina by
Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president who has spent the past
year as a special UN envoy crafting the settlement. "It’s a compromise
proposal," Mr Ahtisaari said, pointing out the plan had to be endorsed
by the UN security council before it could be implemented. The aim was
"a future Kosovo that is viable, sustainable and stable".
The 60-page document does not use the word independence with regard to
Kosovo, insists on a continuing strong international presence, makes
Kosovo a ward of the EU, and leaves a large Nato peacekeeping force in
place. But it launches Kosovo on the road to independence by proposing
many attributes of sovereignty such as a flag, national anthem, seal,
constitution and fledgling army.
Kosovo is also empowered to strike international agreements and apply
to join institutions such as the UN and International Monetary Fund.
"Ahtisaari’s document made the future of Kosovo very clear and opens
the way to Kosovo’s independence," said the Kosovo prime minister,
Agim Ceku. An EU official said: "This is happening," adding: "The
Serbs have got to stop living in the past."
The Serbian leadership reacted with predictable hostility. The prime
minister, Vojislav Kostunica, boycotted the meetings with Mr
Ahtisaari, while President Boris Tadic, a pro-western liberal, vowed
no surrender of the province, which amounts to 15% of Serbian
territory. "Serbia will never accept the independence of Kosovo," said
Mr Tadic. "An imposed independence would represent a dangerous
political and legal precedent."
Serbia, supported by Russia, argues that the establishment of a
Kosovar state by an act of the international community represents an
unparalleled breach of international law and violation of Serbian
sovereignty. The Kosovars, backed by the US and most of the EU,
dismiss this argument, contending it is the last act in the
disintegration of Yugoslavia that started 15 years ago with seven new
countries arising from the old communist state.
The west rebuffs Russian complaints that recognising Kosovo
independence will embolden secessionist movements worldwide, insisting
Kosovo is a one-off.
Mr Kostunica is trying to form a new coalition government and is
demanding that it cut diplomatic relations with all countries that
recognise an independent Kosovo. This could sever ties with the US and
EU, bringing Serbia the kind of international isolation it suffered
under the Milosevic regime in the 1990s.
Serbia essentially lost control of Kosovo eight years ago when an
11-week Nato bombing campaign drove the Serbs out and replaced
Belgrade’s authority with a UN administration that has struggled to
run the province. "Kosovo has been in the fridge for eight years. Now
it’s time to take it out," said an EU official.
Under the Ahtisaari plan, the EU will take over from the UN. A large
Nato force will remain, with their priority to protect the more than
100,000 Serbs living in Kosovo among nearly 2 million Albanians.
The proposals make no reference to independence and Kosovo’s progress
towards statehood will depend greatly on how the Albanians treat the
Serbian minority. The plan calls for six new Serbian municipalities in
Kosovo with powers over the courts, policing, health service and
education as well as links, incl uding financial ties, with Serbia
proper.
Russia is threatening to veto the security council resolution needed
to authorise the EU mission in Kosovo and other details. A security
council consensus would lead Kosovo to declare independence, which the
US and EU would then recognise. But there are rifts within the EU and
senior officials in Brussels say it would not recognise independence
without a green light from the security council.
FAQ: where next for Kosovo?
How did we get here?
When Yugoslavia descended into the bloodbath of the late 80s, Kosovo
was the original source of the secessionist violence. It is now the
last bit of former Yugoslavia to have its status settled. The former
president Slobodan Milosevic abolished autonomy in Kosovo in 1989 and
established a repressive police state there. Tensions exploded into
war and ethnic cleansing in 1999. In June 1999, after a Nato air
campaign, the province was put under UN dominion, patrolled by Nato
troops. Its status has been unclear ever since, until now.
Why is Kosovo so contested?
Kosovo’s 90% Albanian population demands independence, just as the
Slovenes, Croats, Bosnians, Macedonians and Montenegrins got
independence from the old Yugoslavia. Kosovo, however, was a province
of Serbia within Yugo. The region includes the seat of the Serbian
Orthodox church. Kosovo was the cradle of Serbia’s medieval
empire. The Serbs lost an epic battle there in 1389 to the Ottoman
Turks, ushering in 500 years of Ottoman rule in the Balkans.
Do ordinary Serbs care?
Nationalists and political elites are keen to keep the Kosovo flame
alight. Nationalist prime minister Vojislav Kostunica’s new Serbian
constitution last year declared Kosovo forever Serbian. But ordinary
Serbs, battered by war and sanctions, are more interested in jobs and
getting a decent living.
What is the Serbian solution?
The Serbian government refuses to consider the international
settlement, which will need to be imposed. It is offering Kosovo
wide-ranging home rule without any change in Serbian sovereignty. This
is a non-starter for the Albanians.
What happens next?
The UN mediator, Martti Ahtisaari, is talking to both sides and
offering a few weeks of final negotiations. This will bring no
breakthrough. He then takes his plan to the UN security council for a
resolution imposing its terms. This could take months and get
acrimonious. The Russians are professing solidarity with the Serbs and
threatening to veto Kosovan independence. If there is no agreement,
Kosovo could lose patience and declare independence, triggering a
messy row in the west over whether to recognise it.
So where will it all end?
The rosy scenario supported in Washington and Brussels, sees Mr
Ahtisaari winding up the talks and taking his settlement to New York
where the Russians huff and puff but back down after a couple of
months. In June, the EU and G8 would agree on and implement the
machinery for running Kosovo until full independence is reached. Nato
troops would remain, mainly to protect Serbs from attack by Albanian
militants.
The alternative?
The Russians refuse to budge, meaning there is no UN authority for
implementing the above plan. Europe gets a crisis. Tensions flare.
Things get messy, possibly violent. Kosovo becomes a "frozen
conflict".