TENSIONS RISE IN THE CAUCASUS
By Brooks Tigner, Yerevan, Armenia

DefenseNews.com
Feb 5 2007

Armenia and Azerbaijan stopped fighting over the Nagorno-Karabach
enclave 13 years ago, but long-stalled territorial talks and deepening
distrust may draw the two Caucasian nations into an arms race. And
Armenian officials say Turkey’s less-than-friendly refusal to
diplomatically recognize their country only exacerbates the tension.

Oil-rich Azerbaijan aims to boost its defense budget from the
equivalent of $300 million last year to a whopping $1 billion in
2007. Armenia can’t match that, though it is hiking its own defense
budget in 2007 by a healthy 50 percent to $272 million.

Moreover, Armenian officials said they are prepared, if necessary, to
lift national defense spending – already steep at 3.5 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) – even higher to secure the country’s borders.

"There is a direct connection between our defense budgetary increases
and our security problems with Azerbaijan and Turkey," said Artur
Aghabekyan, Armenia’s deputy defense minister. "If Azerbaijan directs
their huge defense increase toward equipment and arms rather than
salaries and social conditions for its Army, then we will have to
increase our own spending."

He said, "There is potential risk of an arms race – yes, but it
hasn’t happened yet because I think soldiers on both sides of the
Azerbaijan-Armenia line still have fresh memories of the conflict."

The 1992-94 war for control of Nagorno-Karabach, the province
of mostly ethnic Armenians ceded to Azerbaijan after the Soviet
Union’s dissolution, left Armenia the victor over 17 percent of
Azerbaijan’s territory. Those gains were incorporated into Armenia,
and the resulting new frontier between the two countries has been
heavily armed – and mined – ever since.

"There are places where our armies are only 30 meters apart from
each other. There are casualties every year," Defense Minister
Serzh Sargsyan said. "We’re not satisfied with our security along
this border."

Azerbaijan appears to share the attitude. It recently purchased 14
MiG-29 fighters from Ukraine and is looking at other arms purchases
such as tanks. This forces tiny Armenia, a country the size of
Maryland, to maintain a relatively huge army of 45,000 and to shadow
its enemy however it can.

"Acquisition of heavy weapons systems will be expensive for
Azerbaijan," said Sargsyan, a likely contender for president in
the country’s 2008 elections. "But we’ll do the cheaper option of
counterdefense. If they buy fighters, we buy anti-aircraft. If they
buy tanks, we buy anti-tank defenses."

Can either side afford it? With 3.3 million people and a GDP in 2005
of $4.4 billion, Armenia is much smaller than the 8.3 million people
and $10.4 billion GDP of Azerbaijan. But the latter is far poorer in
relative terms, with a per capita GDP one-quarter that of Armenia,
while its soldiers are less well trained and motivated, or so officials
here argue.

"I think their government has now taken into consideration that the
quality of an army counts for more than quantity," Aghabekyan said.

It’s an argument echoed across the board by officials here: The
historical solidarity of Armenians and the patriotism of their
soldiers, combined with superior training, will win over the enemy,
as was so spectacularly the case in 1994.

New Security Strategy Despite the bravado, the government is
methodically forging security links in all directions. Aside from
the comfort of a 15-year-old Russian military base to keep an eye on
its frontier with Turkey, Armenia has submitted its newly drafted
national security strategy to NATO, U.S. and Russian officials for
their collective approval.

It buys most of its weapons and supplies from Russia, but since
2002 has expanded its military relations with the United States,
particularly in the areas of training and communications. It also is
quickly expanding cooperation with NATO via its one-year-old Individual
Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) with the alliance, and sees closer
links to NATO as part of its long-term strategy.

The new national security strategy reflects the country’s main
security concerns of energy supply, border protection and balanced
military-political relations that engage both NATO and Russia.

After its adoption by the government – expected in the coming weeks –
the document clears the way for Armenia’s Defense Ministry to begin
tackling new reforms and updating military doctrine.

The new national strategy views security in the widest sense. It takes
into account Armenia’s food and energy supplies, transport links to
the outside world, environmental concerns, potential disruptions to
the economy, integrity of its borders and, above all, threats from
its neighbors, according to government officials.

Land-locked Armenia is bound by two peaceful states – Georgia to the
north and Iran to the south – and its two hostile neighbors, Turkey
to the west and Azerbaijan to the east.

"We took into consideration that Armenia is blockaded by two of its
neighbors, and that is linked into the strategy’s foreign policy
aspects as well," said Andranik Margaryan, Amenia’s prime minister.

Armenia has a twin-track approach to currying military-security
relations with NATO and Russia. Asked if his country’s overtures to
NATO ruffles any feathers with Moscow, which sees the Caucasus region
as its traditional backyard, Margaryan said no.

"No one [in Moscow] has shown any jealousy about our approach. We
have a Russian military base on our territory and we have a growing
relationship with NATO," he said. "Our goal in cooperating with
the alliance is to contribute to our own security and that of our
partners. Don’t forget that Russia also cooperates with NATO for
similar reasons."

Getting closer to NATO, however, means reforming Armenia’s Soviet-era
defense structures and increasing its participation in international
peackeeping missions.

Some of the reforms are linked to the IPAP, which it presented to
NATO in December 2005. These call for greater transparency in defense
budgetary matters and, especially, civilian control over the military.

"Our IPAP priorities will be a critical threshold in our relations
with NATO," Aghabekyan said, noting that reforms will get under way
in the latter half of this year.

Strategic Goals Two key goals are to overhaul Armenia’s outdated,
Soviet-inspired Defense Ministry and lines of authority, and to
modernize the Army’s doctrine. Several laws will be reviewed in the
autumn to achieve these, namely to: ~U Expand the Army’s role to deal
with terrorism and natural disasters.

~U Strengthen civilian oversight of the military.

~U Shift control of the armed services to the General Staff, which
will report to the defense minister, thus giving the latter direct
control over the armed forces.

"We currently have six deputy ministers – all military – who are
in charge of the Army. After the change, there will be only one,
who will be a civilian and politically appointed," said Aghabekyan.

As for expanding Armenia’s security profile internationally, Sargsyan
said he plans to transform Armenia’s NATO-standard peacekeeping
regiment into a brigade. "I will probably sign the order in the coming
months, and it will take some time to achieve this."

Asked how long, he said "it will depend on the level of cooperation and
help from our partners and our own available finances. Our peacekeepers
are trained and equipped on a par with NATO soldiers – and they also
get bigger salaries than others in the army. This is expensive for us."

On a wider scale, Sargsyan said he wants to tighten cooperation with
the United States and other NATO countries for purposes of training.

"It’s no secret our Army has few officers who are Western-trained,
so training and re-training is very important," he said. "And next
we want to drive this down to the sergeant level, because they are
the vital links between the officers and our infantrymen."

Armenia’s specially trained peacekeeping soldiers compete and enlist
for the position, but the wider Army is based on a mandatory draft.

Sargsyan said there were no plans to shift to a fully professional army
due to financial constraints and the country’s need for a relatively
large army to man its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Armenia is addressing its energy security needs as well, namely by
capitalizing on friendly relations with Iran. Today, only one pipeline
brings gas supplies from Russia via Georgia to Armenia. But when
Moscow-Tbilisi relations deteriorate, as they have for the last year,
"we get squeezed when Russia puts pressure on Georgia," said Sargsyan.

A new pipeline will soon open, bringing an alternative supply from
across Armenia’s southern border with Iran.